Will bulls buy the dip or will Trump's tariffs put a pause on bids? Ideas for Feb 03, 2025
Big market gap down after tariffs go in effect. Are you making over 200-1000% on your trades in this market? If not join us...
Good morning traders !
No surprise on the gap down. Friday afternoon I told THT PRO members I was expecting 600-602 by the close and can swing short over the weekend.
And so far we have a big gap down. Will it get bought? I’ll talk about the action and my plans in a bit.
First an update. I spent some time over the weekend coding and resolving some issue I Identified. I also have what I believe is good catching of turns, how ever there are still too many false positives for my taste. I also will be working on a strategy for the last hour. To capture this potential big moves.
We also seem to have an issue with live mode vs backtest mode and ideas not being always generated in live mode. This will be my primary focus outside of trading this week
That said… Check out these signals from Friday. This was Gap Fill idea that was autogenerated by the back test and should have generated live as well but didn’t that I am working on. notice how it signaled an hour beore the drop started and the stop was not crossed.
AVGO short idea. notice how the alert predicted to got short between 220 and 222 and that the stop was not ht and the 213 target was almost met by end of day!
That the magic of what I working on. It’s not just alert with a direction, it’s plan with GREAT risk/reward and alerts where you that the TIME to get in before the payout move starts.
Leave me comments on what you think…
Ok so lets talk price action and what’s going on in the market.
Fri Highlights
Trump followed through on tariffs and market started it’s selling but even before it did, the volume Friday morning on the grind up was low volume. This made me doubt the validity of the push. Once confirmed a break of 605 implied 600-602 was coming same day and possible 586-590 next week based on the last time 610s were rejected. We got exactly them. There is now headline risk in both ways, but overall more risk for downside imho a a global trade war could be getting started — that said this does not have to happen and shoulkd take months to develop.
SPY - push on 610 made a lower high at noon and at 1pm the selling started flushing into 602. after hours 599 was tested.
AVGO - nailed. I was expecting 225+ to come and loaded up on 225c for 0.15. these ran to over 2.25 and I locked majority in. it then dumped back on 221 and dumped to 210 in after hours.
BABA - failed break out reversal on china/us trade war news. broke and rejected opening door to sub 99 by end of day and 92-95 into this week.
AAPL - kind of pissed I wanted 251 test and then load up for all day selling on the gap up. it started selling out of the gate and kept selling all day long reaching 234 by the close.
Solid day people!
Mon Premarket Highlights
SPY 0.00%↑ - gapped down premarket and tested 590 and has tested 594s after.
AVGO 0.00%↑ - gapped down test 207 and then 217 and around 214-215.
BABA 0.00%↑ - gapping down and tested 93 and now back to 97.
Given the tariff related news and the gap down. I think we will need to watch more price action to develop an edge. The premarket action could be a pit stop before more selling or a BTFD opportunity. I don’t see any real reason for big money to buy and position here on this gap down given the uncertainties.
That said there is always opportunity and we find it!
I’ll go over my ideas in the paid section and the key levels 'I’m looking for a reaction to.
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Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2025 Q1 Alert Leaderboard
Here's a look at some of the potential gains achieved through our entry alerts:
Intraday Alerts
2024-01-02 SPX 5880p 11 to 40+
2024-01-02 SPX 5820p $2 to 10
2024-01-03 SPX 5930c $2, dipped to $3 and ran to $11
2024-01-06 SPX 5980p $1.70 → $20 ($1700 to $20k potential)
2024-01-07 SPX 5900p $0.50 → $11 ($500 to $11000 potential)
2024-01-07 SPX 5930p $5 → $17.4 ($5000 to $17400 potential)
2024-01-07 SPX 5930p $5 → $40 ($500 to $4000 potential)
2024-01-08 SPX 5800p 1/10 $4 → $10 ($400 to $1000 potential)
2024-01-10 SPX 5800p 1/10 $4 → $10 ($400 to $1000 potential)
2024-01-13 SPX 5820c $5 → $10 ($400 to $1000 potential) **Round 1
2024-01-13 SPX 5820c $2.80 → $16 ($400 to $1000 potential) ** Round 2
2024-01-13 SPX 5820c $4.50 → $16 ($400 to $1000 potential)** Round 3
2024-01-14 SPX 5870c $0.75 → $3.75 ($750 to $3750 potential)
2024-01-14 TSLA 430c $0.75 → $3.75 ($750 to $3750 potential)
2024-01-15 SPX 5950c $9 → $14 ($9000 to $14000 potential)
2024-01-15 GS 610c $2 → $4.50 ($2000 to $4500 potential)
2024-01-15 TSLA 430c $3-4 → $8.20 ($3500 to $8200 potential)
2024-01-15 QQQ 514p $0.8 → $1.82 ($8000 to $18200 potential)
2024-01-16 AAPL 235p $0.7 → $7 ($700 to $7000 potential)
2024-01-16 SPX 5980c $7 → $12 ($700 to $1200 potential)
2024-01-16 SPX 5970c $2 → $5 ($2000 to $5000 potential)
2024-01-16 SPX 5970c $2 → $5 ($2000 to $5000 potential)
2024-01-17 SPX 6000c $8 → $17.2 ($8000 to $17200 potential)
2024-01-17 TSLA 430c $2 → 5.20 ($2000 to $5200 potential)** Round 1
2024-01-17 TSLA 430c $2.30 → 9.9 ($2000 to $9900 potential)** Round 2
2025-01-17 SPX 6000p $0.50 → $5 ($500 to $5000 potential)
2025-01-17 SPX 6020c $0.50 → $0.30 ($500 to $300 stopped.) ** was a combo trade with the 6000p
2025-01-21 SPX 6035c $5→ $15 ($5000 to $15000 potenital.)
2025-01-21 TSLA 440c $2.90→ $5.30 ($2900 to $5300 potenttal.) **dipped to 2.58. alerted 2.50 entry wanted.
2025-01-22 NFLX 950p $3.25→ $10.60 ($3250 to $10600 potenital.)
2025-01-22 SPX 6090p $1→ $5.80 ($1000 to $5800 potenital.) **dipped to 0.65
2025-01-23 SPX 6110c $0.80→ $8.60 ($800 to $8600 potential)
2025-01-24 SPX 6100p $3.30→ $2.30 (stopped) ** round 1 stopped
2025-01-24 SPX 6100p $1.50→ $12 ($1500 to $12000 potential) ** round 2 we banked
2025-01-24 AAPL 222.50p $0.25→ 0.80 ($2500 → $8000 potential)
2025-01-24 AAPL 222.50p $0.25→ 0.80 ($2500 → $8000 potential)
2025-01-24 AMD 123p $0.10 → 1.72 ($1000 → $17200 potential)
2025-01-27 SPX 5950p $9 → 40 ($900 → $4000 potential) ** premarket trade
2025-01-27 SPX 5950p $1.50 → 3.50 ($1500 → $3500 potential)
2025-01-27 NVDA 117p $1.5 → 5.4 ($1500 → $5400 potential)
2025-01-27 AVGO 200p $1.8 → 9.10 ($1800 → $9100 potential)
2025-01-28 SPX 6040c $8.50 → 33.50 ($8500 → $33500 potential)
2025-01-28 SPX 6080c $0.20 → 2.25 ($3500 → $22500 potential)
2025-01-28 SPX 6070c $0.70 → 6.20 ($7000 → $62000 potential) *Round 1
2025-01-28 SPX 6070c $0.90 → 6.20 ($9000 → $62000 potential) *Round 2
2025-01-29 SPX 6000p $4.50 → 12 ($4500 → $12000 potential)
2025-01-29 SPX 6060c $1.5 → 5.20 ($1500 → $5200 potential)
Swing Alerts
2024-01-13 TSLA 430c $1.30 → 8.82 ($1300 to $8820 potential) **alerted exits at 6.50 and 8
2024-01-15 GS 610c $2 → 8 ** exit on 1/16
2024-01-15 GS 610 $2 → $16 ** missed reload on dips. exit on 1/17
2025-01-16 SPX 6000c 1/17 $3 → 17.20 ** dipped to $2 on Thursday, exit majority at $12.
2025-01-21 SPX 6070c 1/17 $6.50 → 30+. *exit on 1/22
2025-01-21 AVGO 242.50c 1/24 $2.50 → 6 *exit on 1/22
2025-01-21 ORCL 180c 1/31 $2 → 11 *exit on 1/22
2025-01-22 NVDA 145p 0.75 → $2 *exit on 1/23
2025-01-23 ORCL 190c 1/31 $2 → 3.20 *exit on 1/24
2025-01-27 META 700c 1/31 $7 → ? rare e/r yolo **hope to sell 50% at $14 make it risk free hold into report.
2025-01-27 AVGO 225c 1/31 $0.25 → 2.50 **reached on 1/30 but I didn’t sell and got stopped at 1.50 and reloaded at 0.35-0.40
Credit Sell Alerts
2024-01-14 SPX 5800/5795 bull puts for 1.50-2.50. $2000 credit potential using 10 contracts and $1000 risk.
2024-01-15 SPX 5950/5955 bear calls for $2→0. $2000-4200 credit potential. Round 1 dipped to 0.75. Round 2 ran to $4.20 and then dropped to 0.
2024-01-16 SPX 5950/5955 bear calls for $2→0. $2000-3000 credit potential. Round 1 dipped to 0.75. Round 2 ran to $3 and then dropped to 0. ** not a typo, same play paid.
2024-01-16 SPX 6020/6025 bear calls for 3.50 ** DID NOT FILL. (the 1.50 at time of alert went to 0)
2024-01-21 SPX 6035/6050 bear calls for 2 stopped 2.50
2024-01-27 SPX 5950/5945 bull puts for 2.50 → 0 **premarket
2024-01-30 SPX 6060/6055 bull puts for 4.50 → 0
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
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Trade Recap for Fri Jan 31
GOLD BOLD ITALIC = price action signal
WHITE REGULAR = action to take/taken
GREEN REGULAR = trades I should have taken
SPY / SPX
Super clean setups.
Lessons to learn:
look for gap up reversals even if bullish
pay attention to option scanner‘s credit sell
Don’t forget trading futures /ES to swing overnight
If you are busy and want to see my commentary and ideas in real time consider joining THT-PRO.
Education - How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows/failed breakdown reversal
Join at vwap mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Education - Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Let me know in the comments if you have questions or would like to see examples, I’ll share them.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Mon Feb 03
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
Overall I am looking for some push initially and then see if 590 breaks for more downside. After a big gap, today may turn into a range bounce consolidation day as bulls and bears figure out whats next.