Opinion: Don’t Buy This Dip

7 Questions Investors Must Ask Before Buying this Dip if investing long term

I writing this in the hopes I help save some accounts and help people plan for the future. I perfectly predicted last fall that the market will rally to 610-620 and after Trump inauguration, the market will drop. It wasn’t rocket science, it was a function of uncertainty and risk. Maybe I write about that another time. The point is, I have an amazing and uncanny ability to read momentum. 99% of my energy/skill is applied to day trading, but that experience, lets me know what to look for the handful of times that is is super great for positional trading.

For 15 years, investors have been conditioned like Pavlov’s dogs to "buy the dip." And it worked. Every drawdown seemed like a golden opportunity. You just had to hold your breath, wait out the pain, and the market would come roaring back with record-breaking gains.

But this time... feels different.

In my opinion, the current environment is too risky to justify long-term investing—at least not yet. The long-term low isn’t in. And worse, the blind optimism baked into every rebound is now clashing with real macro, political, and structural risks that can’t be solved with another round of QE or rate cuts.

We’re in uncharted territory. Price has drifted far from value. And when that happens, gravity usually wins.

✅ 7 Smart Questions to Ask Before Investing Long-Term Again

1. Are institutions accumulating again?
   → Watch for rising volume on up days, accumulation weeks, and large-cap leadership.
   📉 If institutions aren’t buying, it’s not time yet.

2. Are insiders buying at scale?
   → Insider purchases near lows show confidence in real value — not just headlines.
   🧠 If execs aren’t betting on their own companies, why should you?

3. Has the market formed a base and broken out of it?
   → Real long-term bottoms take time. Look for months of sideways action followed by a breakout with volume.
   🕰️ No base = no trust in the bottom.

4. Are interest rates stabilizing or trending down?
   → Falling or steady rates reduce future risk and increase valuations.
   💡 If rates are volatile or rising, long-duration bets are still dangerous.

5. Are credit spreads narrowing?
   → Tightening spreads suggest improving credit confidence and risk appetite.
   💣 Widening spreads = stress under the surface.

6. Is breadth improving across sectors?
   → Bull markets aren’t led by a few megacaps. You want to see 60–70% of stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages.
   🌱 Healthy markets lift the whole garden, not just one tree.

7. Is volatility compressing back to pre-event levels?
   → Sustained VIX under 15–16 shows fear is fading.
   ⚠️ If volatility remains elevated, large funds won’t commit.

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🔮 The Path Forward: Price Discovery in a Storm

My gut says we’re heading into a multi-year range—somewhere between SPY 400 and 600—for the next 2 to 5 years.

We're not in a crash. We're in price discovery.

Expect monster rallies that suck everyone back in… followed by monster dumps that wipe out those same gains. Choppy waters, with sharp rocks underneath.

If you’re investing with a 10-year horizon, I get the temptation. But in this environment, I’d rather pay a higher price for certainty than grab “cheap” prices with a freight train headed straight at me.

If you’re scalping and swinging trading for shorter time frames, there is incredible profit making opportunity. I am personally expecting the biggest gains in my trading history to come in the next 2 years. The kind of profit that will translate to never flying commercial again for the rest of my life.

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💼 How to Profit Until the Questions Are Answered

Here’s how I’m approaching this market instead of long-term investing:

• Adjust Your Timeline
  This isn’t the time for lazy buy-and-hold. This is a time for flexibility and control.

• Swing Trade Instead of Position Trade
  Position trading = holding for years based on long-term conviction.
  Swing trading = holding for days to a few weeks, riding shorter-term trends.
  Right now? Conviction is costly. Adaptability wins.

• Trade in a Tax-Protected Account
  If you're doing short-term trading, capital gains taxes can eat your profits. Consider swing trading inside a Roth IRA or SEP IRA for major tax advantages. The growth is for the future after all and not to pay the bills.

• Trade During the Best Part of the Day (2–4PM ET)
  In the current environment, I’ve found that is where setups align, and asymmetric reward to risk is found. If you can commit two hours a day, I’ll show you how to find the edge.

👉 Want in? Join our group and see the process in action

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📈 Top Performing Alerts (After 2PM)

Here are 3 of our biggest hits from the last week — all triggered after 2PM:

• SPX 5620c 4/2/25: $1 → $16.50

• SPX 5400p 4/3/25: $1.75 → $8

• SPX 5440p 4/3/25: $11→ $40

Short, sharp, high-probability trades. That’s how we’re surviving (and thriving) in this market.

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🧠 Final Thought: Wait for Certainty, Not Hope

This market doesn’t reward blind hope anymore. It punishes complacency. And while that might sound scary, it’s actually freeing—because once you embrace the volatility and trade with purpose, you stop feeling like the victim of a broken system.

I’m not saying the market is un-investable. I’m saying it’s not investable yet.

Let the big questions answer themselves. Until then, trade smart. Stay nimble. And above all—protect your capital.

Bottom line: Save your cash and wait for deeper dips AND big money getting back in.

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Want help trading through this environment?
➡️ Join our exclusive trader group.

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Disclaimer:
This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. All opinions expressed are my own and should not be relied upon for making investment decisions. Always do your own research, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment. Trading and investing carry risk, including the risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.