SPY - BTFD 2024: Election Edition – How Trump vs. Harris Could Move Markets

Election Day Is Two Weeks Away – Here’s the Game Plan to Navigate the Madness Like a Pro

What’s My Strategy for the Next Two Weeks? Let’s Dive into 2024’s Volume Trends

2024 has been a year where the market's biggest moves are all about volume. And guess what? Every heavy volume day we’ve seen has occurred at market lows, making it a perfect "buy the fear" scenario. With Election Day right around the corner, the market is gearing up for some potentially big moves. But it’s not just about predicting the election outcome—it's about understanding the market psychology driving the action.

Here’s my breakdown for navigating the market in the next few weeks.

Buy the Fear: Volume Speaks Louder Than Polls

Heavy Volume at Lows in 2024

Whenever fear spikes, and volume surges, it’s been a flashing sign to buy the dip. When others are panicking, I’m getting in. Why? Because big money has been stepping in to scoop up shares when fear is highest, and you should be ready to ride that wave.

Volume Decreases as New Highs are made

We’ve been hitting higher prices on lower volume, which means there's no solid conviction on the upside. But they keep coming! But before we start getting all bearish, it hasn’t really been rewarded. In 8 months there was a 2 week, 3, week, and 1 week, period of selling. That’s it.

You can see how volume dropped off in May as it pushed to new highs, there was a little dip to back test and then 2 more months of volume averaging down as SPY continued make more highs!

To go short we need to see a break below key support levels to consider getting short. Then anticipate.a back test of previous support level. Until then, the trend is still your friend.

Election Day Targets – SPY 610 and 585

As Nov. 5 approaches, the confluence of market factors points to these levels being key targets. Watch closely as SPY could test these zones.

Volume started averaging down again last week in a big way. This makes me think we could see a dip into 575 again, but if it comes I’ll be looking for rally higher ahead of elections.

Key Support Levels to Watch

575 Backtest Incoming?

We could see a near-term dip here if market big money decides to de-risk/lock some gains ahead of election event before ramping up again.

I’m ready to jump in if SPY backtests this level.

565 Major Support

While it’s unlikely we drop down to 565, if it happens, that’s where I’ll be making my big decision: Do we see deeper selling, or is it another BTFD moment? Stay tuned.

My SPY Swing Trading Process for 2024: The Red Day Playbook

Let’s talk about how I’m playing the market this year. The formula is simple but effective: