You don't need a high win rate!

I asked GROK if 75% of my alerts fail, and people sell at 50% of the potential on winning trades, how would they do?

Analyzing Potential Returns from Your Alerts

You’ve asked for a scenario where you’re correct only 25% of the time, lose 100% on the losing trades, and winners are taken to 50% of their potential. I’ll use the 2024 alerts from the Spectre Trades 2024 Alerts Leaderboard as a sample dataset to calculate this. Since the 2025 link (SPY Broke 590: How Will We Get Paid) focuses on early 2025 trades and isn’t a full-year dataset yet, I’ll base this primarily on 2024 data for consistency.

Step 1: Understanding the 2024 Alerts

From the 2024 Alerts Leaderboard (https://blog.spectretrades.com/p/2024-alerts-leaderboard), numerous SPX (and other) options trades are listed with entry prices and peak potential exits. Examples include:

• Sep 11 - SPX 5500c: $0.50 → $60 ($1,000 → $120,000 potential per 10 contracts)

• Sep 06 - SPX 5430p: $3 → $29.60 ($3,000 → $29,600 potential per 10 contracts)

• Aug 30 - SPX 5640c: $0.20 → $14 ($3,000 → $140,000 potential per 10 contracts)

The list contains dozens of trades with varying returns, some massive (e.g., 11,900% on SPX 5500c) and others more modest (e.g., 200-300%). For simplicity, I’ll assume a sample of 40 trades (a rough estimate of alerts across a quarter from the blog) and calculate based on your scenario.

Step 2: Defining the Scenario

• Win Rate: 25% (10 winning trades out of 40).

• Losses: 100% loss on the 75% losing trades (30 trades).

• Winners: 50% of the potential gain captured on the 25% winning trades.

Let’s assume an average investment of $1,000 per trade (10 contracts at varying prices, adjusted for simplicity) and select a mix of trades to reflect high and moderate performers.

Step 3: Sample Calculation

From the 2024 leaderboard, I’ll pick 10 representative winning trades and assume the rest lose:

1. SPX 5500c: $0.50 → $60, Potential: $119,000 (50% = $59,500)

2. SPX 5450c: $4.50 → $110, Potential: $105,500 (50% = $52,750)

3. SPX 5430p: $3 → $29.60, Potential: $26,600 (50% = $13,300)

4. SPX 5630p: $6 → $26, Potential: $20,000 (50% = $10,000)

5. SPX 5555p: $4.50 → $46, Potential: $41,500 (50% = $20,750)

6. SPX 5640c: $0.20 → $14, Potential: $69,500 (50% = $34,750)

7. SPX 5620c: $4.50 → $19, Potential: $14,500 (50% = $7,250)

8. SPX 5580p: $1.75 → $21, Potential: $19,250 (50% = $9,625)

9. SPX 5670/75 bear calls: $1.50 → $0, Potential: $1,500 premium (50% = $750)

10. SPX 5720c: $4.20 → $15, Potential: $10,800 (50% = $5,400)

• Total Gains on Winners: $59,500 + $52,750 + $13,300 + $10,000 + $20,750 + $34,750 + $7,250 + $9,625 + $750 + $5,400 = $214,075

• Total Losses on Losers: 30 trades × $1,000 = $30,000

• Net Result: $214,075 - $30,000 = $184,075 profit

Step 4: Interpretation

Even with a 25% win rate, losing 100% on losers, and taking only 50% of the potential on winners, the outsized returns on SPX options (especially low-cost, high-momentum plays) could yield a significant profit—here, $184,075 on a $40,000 total investment (40 trades × $1,000). This equates to a ~460% return. The key is the asymmetry of options trading: winners can massively outweigh losers when momentum hits. Imagine if over 50% of the alerts were winners compared to the losers.

Caveat: This assumes perfect execution and a representative sample. In reality, not all trades hit their peak, and timing matters. Still, it shows Spectre’s alerts have serious profit potential even in a conservative scenario.

Are you willing to commit to a 25%+ win rate and ride the winners? If so join the THT PRO community.

Remember past performance i not indicative of future results and trading Options carries significant risk and potential to lose all your capital.