Will SPY hold the gap up into new highs today? Trade ideas for Monday Oct 14, 2024
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Good morning traders!
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Wow Friday feels like so long ago, but another magical day with bags! I keep forgetting to trade my small account so will make that a priority this week. My personal goal is to show you that with proper planning, patience, and risk management you can 10x a 1k account.
I spent most of the weekend working on algo stuff. I’ve got a framework I’ve started on that hopefully will lead to good results by end of the week.
Friday’s Price Action
The PPI data appears to have given market hope and legs, and I had told THT-PRO members that if a short trade develops it will likely be after testing 580-582. We are in that zone this morning. Having that 580+ target helped me look for dips to go long on Friday, but also to plan shorts.
I missed the long on Friday as I wanted to prove a point to a member that I don’t need to open trades in first hour to get bangers. It stings, because it was a easy 5+ bagger in 15 minutes. I then had to wait until afternoon to get my bags, but we got it multiple times.
Basically SPY put in continuation action with new all time highs break out. Be sure to read the review section to see what signals for trades came.
NVDA dip and ripped in early minutes and then consolidated all day.
TSLA dipped and ripped after it’s big gap down, but wasn’t able to hold over 220 and set 224 as a ceiling.
PDD put it a massive failed breakdown reversal trade breaking below 138, reclaimed and running right to the 144 key level I had mentioned before.
Monday Premarket Action
Friday after hours saw 578 barely back tested and this morning SPY is gapping into new highs testing 581 before dipping back on vwap.
NVDA is gapping up making its way back to 140s. So far its at 136.
MSTR is a beast gapping up into 225s!
SMCI is back over 48, will it see 50-52+ this week?
TSLA is gapping up back over 220, but failing 222. Could SpaceX’s mechazilla chop stick catch be giving TSLA a boost and renewed all in on Musk by investors?
Let’s review the trade signals in SPY and go over ideas for today.
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Introduction (for New Readers)
Welcome to my blog on Two Hour Trading—your daily source for market insights and trading opportunities. Here, you’ll find comprehensive market analysis, educational lessons, and trade ideas to help you excel in trading, all while spending less than two hours a day.
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Subscribers receive daily market analysis updates, educational content, and up to three trade ideas each morning based on real-life examples and my trading approach.
NOTE: screenshots from chat are from Edge Trade Planner. A platform available to THT PRO members. Join Us for live commentary and planning. Note my goal is to actively trade less than 2 hours a day finding 1 to 4 great trades a day.
What is Two Hour Trading?
Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Q4 Alert Leaderboard
Here's a look at some of the potential gains achieved through our entry alerts:
Oct 11 - SPX 5810c $5 → $14 ($5000 —> $14000 potential)
Oct 11 - SPX 5805p $1 → $13.50 ($1000 —> $13500 potential)
Oct 10 - SPX 5800c $2 → $6 ($2000 —> $6000 potential)
Oct 10 - SPX 5750p $0.50 → $3.40 ($500 —> $3400 potential)
Oct 09 - SPX 5775c $2.5 (thanks JY!) → $22 ($2500 —> $22000 potential)
Oct 09 - SPX 5800c $0.5 (dipped 0.20) → $2.45 ($500 —> $2450 potential)
Oct 09 - SPX 5790c $1 (dipped 0.70) → $8.65 ($1000 —> $8650 potential)
Oct 09 - SPX 5790c Round 2 $3.5 → $7.5 ($3500 —> $7500 potential)
Oct 08 - SPX 5750c $1 (dipped 0.70) → $2.30 ($1000 —> $8400 potential)
Oct 08 - SPX 5750c $2 (dipped 1.70) → $8.40 ($2000 —> $8400 potential)
Oct 08 - MSFT 415c $3 risk 0.20 —> 4.10 ($3000 → $4100) 5R!
Oct 07 - SPX 5720c $1 (dipped 1.20) → $3.30 ($1200 —> $3300 potential)
Oct 07 - SPX 5690p $1.50 (dipped 1.55) → $10.50 ($1550 —> $10500 potential)
Oct 07 - PDD 145p $2.35 (swing) → 5
Oct 04 - SPX 5700p $5 → $15.50 ($5000 —> $15500 potential)
Oct 04 - SPX 5730c $6 → $23.90 ($6000 —> $23900 potential)
Oct 04 - SPX 5740c $1.50 → $14 ($1500 —> $14000 potential)
Oct 04 - SPX 5750c $1 → $5 ($1000 —> $5000 potential)
Oct 04 - OXY 55c $0.35 → $0.80 ($3500 —> $8000 potential)
Oct 04 - META 595c $0.12 → 1.90 ($1200 —> $19000 potential)
Oct 03 - SPX 5655p $1 → $5 ($1000 —> $5000 potential)
Oct 03 - SPX 5690c $2 → $14.20($2000 → $14200 potential)
Oct 03 - SPX 5695c $1-2 → $9.80 ($1500 → $9800 potential)
Oct 03 - NVDA 125c $0.55 (swing)
Oct 03 - XOM 123c $0.22 (swing)
Oct 03 - OXY 55c $0.33 (swing)
Oct 03 - PDD 155c $1.20 (swing)
Oct 03 - SPX 5720/25 bear calls $2 —> 0 (risk $500 to collect $2000 premium)
Oct 02 - SPX 5700p $2.50 → $8.50 ($2500 —> $8500 potential)
Oct 02 - SPX 5720/25 bear calls $2.50 —> 0 (risk $500 to collect $2500 premium)
Oct 01 - SPX 5720p $3 → $12 ($3000 —> $12000 potential)
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
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Trade Recap for Friday Oct 11
GOLD BOLD ITALIC = price action signal
GOLD REGULAR = action to take/taken
GREEN REGULAR = trades I should have taken
SPY / SPX
Notice the price action in first 15 minutes and the breakout. It would have been OK to go long targeting 579.30+. I was helping a long time friend to learn not to overtrade and be patient and stop trading during the first hour because that was leading to many of his losses as well as killing his buying power.
I was annoyed at myself but proud of being disciplined and sticking to the plan and script and sure enough was rewarded later in the day.
So why take profits? Bases on Rules. Hit a level. Take profit. Hits 10:30am. Take Profit.
Why short at 12pm? New high, and triple top with lower highs and volume break of support. GO SHORT. It was only 100% gainer because contracts are juiced!
Why short at 579.80? When SPY was at VWAP I told THT-PRO members there is no trade here. I don’t believe we have an edge just yet and my plan was to short over 579.50 or go long at 577.30. 577.30 didn’t come. 579.50+ did. This let us snake SPX 5805p for $1 and into the flush 20 minutes later they hit $13+. Did I sell there? NO! Why not? Because I had planned sell orders at 3 and 6 for 200% and 500% gains! If you didn’t have your finger on the sell button, you likely missed the spike exits. A minute later they were back to 3.50 and then to 0. This is why I preach, place sell orders in advance! Sometimes you get wild spikes to get paid and you can always manually adjust later if you are baby sitting.
If you are busy and want to see my commentary and ideas in real time consider joining THT-PRO.
Education - How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows/failed breakdown reversal
Join at vwap mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Education - Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Let me know in the comments if you have questions or would like to see examples, I’ll share them.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Monday Oct 14
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
Watching SPY, NVDA, and TSLA today! Since we are gapping up, into the short zone for me, I will be looking for a gap up reversal play.
Let’s go over the ideas…