Will PPI drive SPY to more all time highs or lead to profit taking? Trade ideas for Friday Oct 11, 2024
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Another day of baggers yesterday but you had to be patient. Be sure to read the review to see the signal we were looking at.
Thursday’s Price Action
After CPI data came out SPY established support at 574.50. We basically got a dip there and then rallied to test Wednesday’s high, failed, and then dipped back to test the morning lows, leading to another failed break down reversal at 574.50 for the mini squeeze into the close I called out.
Overall it appears to me like market is basing/consolidating at 575 in preparation for a move over 580 next week. Remember that 600+ target for January I gave last month, we are on our way. Let’s see if it plays out.
NVDA showed remarkable resilience yesterday and rallied to 135 after testing 131s. Meanwhile, AMD dumped and broke support.
META may have found support at 583 and based there.
PDD tested 138 rallied back to 143. 144 is key resistance and 138 is key support imho.
Friday Premarket Action
Overnight 577s tested and as well as 575. PPI came out at 576 was bought with a 577 retest. Overall more consolidation action. Check out
TSLA 0.00%↑ had We Rebot, event day. Personally I think the event was impressive, but not enough for investors to pay a premium. The issue is that the deliveries of the products/services is essentially 2+ years out. I’ll keep an eye out for any major dips and looking at 2026 or 2027 leaps. May dollar cost average on those sub $200 if it comes again.
Let’s review the trade signals in SPY and go over ideas for today.
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What is Two Hour Trading?
Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Q4 Alert Leaderboard
Here's a look at some of the potential gains achieved through our entry alerts:
Oct 10 - SPX 5800 $2 → $6 ($2000 —> $6000 potential)
Oct 10 - SPX 5750p $0.50 → $3.40 ($500 —> $3400 potential)
Oct 09 - SPX 5775 $2.5 (thanks JY!) → $22 ($2500 —> $22000 potential)
Oct 09 - SPX 5800 $0.5 (dipped 0.20) → $2.45 ($500 —> $2450 potential)
Oct 09 - SPX 5790c $1 (dipped 0.70) → $8.65 ($1000 —> $8650 potential)
Oct 09 - SPX 5790c Round 2 $3.5 → $7.5 ($3500 —> $7500 potential)
Oct 08 - SPX 5750c $1 (dipped 0.70) → $2.30 ($1000 —> $8400 potential)
Oct 08 - SPX 5750c $2 (dipped 1.70) → $8.40 ($2000 —> $8400 potential)
Oct 08 - MSFT 415c $3 risk 0.20 —> 4.10 ($3000 → $4100) 5R!
Oct 07 - SPX 5720c $1 (dipped 1.20) → $3.30 ($1200 —> $3300 potential)
Oct 07 - SPX 5690p $1.50 (dipped 1.55) → $10.50 ($1550 —> $10500 potential)
Oct 07 - PDD 145p $2.35 (swing) → 5
Oct 04 - SPX 5700p $5 → $15.50 ($5000 —> $15500 potential)
Oct 04 - SPX 5730c $6 → $23.90 ($6000 —> $23900 potential)
Oct 04 - SPX 5740c $1.50 → $14 ($1500 —> $14000 potential)
Oct 04 - SPX 5750c $1 → $5 ($1000 —> $5000 potential)
Oct 04 - OXY 55c $0.35 → $0.80 ($3500 —> $8000 potential)
Oct 04 - META 595c $0.12 → 1.90 ($1200 —> $19000 potential)
Oct 03 - SPX 5655p $1 → $5 ($1000 —> $5000 potential)
Oct 03 - SPX 5690c $2 → $14.20($2000 → $14200 potential)
Oct 03 - SPX 5695c $1-2 → $9.80 ($1500 → $9800 potential)
Oct 03 - NVDA 125c $0.55 (swing)
Oct 03 - XOM 123c $0.22 (swing)
Oct 03 - OXY 55c $0.33 (swing)
Oct 03 - PDD 155c $1.20 (swing)
Oct 03 - SPX 5720/25 bear calls $2 —> 0 (risk $500 to collect $2000 premium)
Oct 02 - SPX 5700p $2.50 → $8.50 ($2500 —> $8500 potential)
Oct 02 - SPX 5720/25 bear calls $2.50 —> 0 (risk $500 to collect $2500 premium)
Oct 01 - SPX 5720p $3 → $12 ($3000 —> $12000 potential)
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
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Trade Recap for Thursday Oct 10
GOLD BOLD ITALIC = price action signal
GOLD REGULAR = action to take/taken
GREEN REGULAR = trades I should have taken
SPY / SPX
Yesterday was frustrating in that we got our base hits of 100-300% gains, but didn’t get 10x payout and many times great entries, but no follow through. This is why I preach set sell orders in advance and use Take Profit on Risk/Reward as the default methodology unless high conviction and volume that 2 or more level move is coming.
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Education - How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows/failed breakdown reversal
Join at vwap mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Education - Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Let me know in the comments if you have questions or would like to see examples, I’ll share them.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Thursday Oct 11
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
Watching SPY, PDD, NVDA, and TSLA today! Same question on my mind, is will bull show up today or start taking profits. Will VIX break 20?
Let’s go over the ideas…