Will GDP/Powell support or kill this overnight rally SPY QQQ? Have China names begun a short squeeze? Musk "pumps" robo event. Trade ideas for Thursday Sept 26, 2024
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Good morning traders!
There is so much going on this morning!!! I don’t even know where to begin. Starting next week I’m hoping to change the format up on the blog to help you better see how you can achieve more by trading less and being super efficient.
Market Gap Up
Let’s first talk about what’s probably on your mind — What the hell is going on with this gap up ahead of GDP and Powell?!?
IMHO shorts are partially trapped and I think market makers are taking advantage of the rate cut and of September bearish seasonality. I am a bit surprised by how much of a gap up, but I’m not complaining this time.. Why? Because of teamwork. Moe mentioned seeing some SPX 5760 flow at BBS. I said I loved it, taking starter at 2 and scaling up under 1.50. I almost got stopped out but decided to hold on as long as SPY didn’t break 569. I rarely take overnight swing trades, so when I do pay attention. These calls are currently at $16!!! an overnight 10 bagger if it can hold into the open and the various news events.
I also told THT PRO members I liked IWM 0.00%↑ 220 calls for a swing into Friday. They were 0.60 at the close. I’m think they will be 1.20-1.80 this morning.
China rally
I mentioned a couple of days ago how China’s stimulus is a big deal akin to the Inflation Reduction Act. Our PDD 110c from 1.25 are now $13+ if price holds at the open. We could see 130+ by tomorrow. Here is the thing as we approached resistance on china names, short positions on China are near all time highs based on one report. We could be in the middle of a major short squeeze.
Elon Musk makes cryptic post about We Robot
Read my thoughts on the TSLA and the trigger the Robot Technology unveiling can have here. Overall Musk is brilliant. I don’t think its a coincidence that Musk started pumping the 10/10 Robot event as it was reaching 260 resistance level.
Economic Data and Jerome Powell
We have multiple catalysts this morning:
We have GDP data, jobs numbers at 8:30am which could wreck or boost this overnight gap.
We also have Powell speaking at 9:20. Why just before market open? Is the market manipulated? Answer: Doesn’t matter. Let’s keep planning trades and executing the way we have been using the levels. PS — The speech is prerecorded so maybe someone know something.
There are 3 or 4 fed speakers talking today so I’m really curious about how the day plays out.
That’s a wrap on what we have going on today.
Overall yesterday started off as a chop fest and then paid us nicely!
We got 2 trades that paid over 200% and a couple that chopped.
And our overnight swing trades so far are up 300-1000% depending on the trade and assuming they hold into the open. Solid work and risk/reward.
Like I said a month ago… 10 baggers are back!!!
Let’s review yesterdays action and go over the ideas for today. Today will be difficult to plan ahead given the gap up and news evens and the levels may change but I’ll do my best.
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Let’s review the action in SPY and go over ideas for today.
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What is Two Hour Trading?
Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Alert Leaderboard
Here's a look at some of the potential gains achieved through our entry alerts:
Sep 25 - SPX 5760c $1.50 (swing) → ? Currently $16 ($1500 —> $17000 potential) (Interactive Brokers lets you trade SPX options overnight)
Sep 25 - SPX 5730c $1 —> 4.10 ($1000 —> $4100 potential)
Sep 25 - SPX 5720p $3 —> 10.63 ($3000 → $10630 potential)
Sep 24/25 - PDD 110c 1.25 (swing) —> 14 ($1250→ $14000 potential)
Sep 24 - PDD 110c 1.25 —> 4.50 ($1250→ $4500 potential)
Sep 24 - SPX 5720c 4.20 —> 15 ($4200→ $16800 potential)
Sep 20 - CRWD 295c 0.25 —> 5 ($2500→ $50000 potential)
Sep 19 - SPX 5730/35 bear calls $4 —> 0 ($collect $4000 premium risking $500)
Sep 18 - SPX 5650/55 bear calls $4.50 —> 0 ($collect $4500 premium risking $500)
Sep 18 - SPX 5670/75 bear calls $1.50 —> 0 ($collect $1500 premium risking $500)
Sep 17 - SPX 5630p $3.50 —> 20 ($3500 → $20000 potential)
Sep 16 - SPX 5600p $3 → 10.50 ( $3000 → $10500 potential )
Sep 11 - SPX 5500c $0.50 → 60 ( $1000 → $120000 potential )
Sep 11 - SPX 5450c $4.5 → 110 ( $4500 → $110000 potential )
Sep 11 - SPX 5400p $2.75 → 14 ( $2750 → $14000 potential )
Sep 10 - SPX 5450p $3.50 → 18 ( $3500 → $18000 potential )
Sep 09 - SPX 5450p $2.35 → 8 ( $2350 → $8000 potential )
Sep 09 - NVDA 102p $1.35 → 2.15 ( $1350 → $2100 potential )
Sep 06 - SPX 5430p $3 → 29.60 ( $3000 → $29600 potential )
Sep 06 - SPX 5430p $8 → 29.60 ( $8000 → $29600 potential )
Sep 06 - SPX 5450c 0.30 → 1.70 ( $3000 → $17000 potential )
Sep 06 - TSLA 220p 0.60 → 7 ( $600 → $7000 potential )
Sep 06 - NVDA 102p 0.20 —> 1.50 ( $2000 → $15000 potential )
Sep 05 - TSLA 230c 2.30 → 7 ( $2300 → $7000 potential )
Sep 05 - SPX 5620p 6 → 37 ( $6000 → $37000 potential )
Sep 05 - SPX 5480p 0.5 (dipped to 0.22) → 5.20 ( $1000 → $10000 potential )
Sep 04 - SPX 5630p 6 → 26 ( $6000 → $26000 potential )
Sep 03 - SPX 5630p 0.20 (dipped to 0.75) ( $750 → $19000 potential )
Sep 03 - SPX 5555p 4.50 → 46 ( $4500 → $46000 potential )
Sep 03 - NVDA 110p 1.4 —> 4.4 (1400 → 4400 potenial)
Sep 03 - UVXY 25c 1.2 —> 5.4 ( $1200 → $5400 potential)
Aug 30 - SPX 5640c 0.20 (dipped to 0.30) —> 14 ($3000 → $140000 potential)
Aug 29 - SPX 5650c 3.50 —> 6 ($3500 → $6500 potential)
Aug 29 - MSFT 420c 1.30 —> 4 ($1300 → $4000 potential)
Aug 28 - SPX 5560p 1 —> 8.70 ($1000 → $8700 potential)
Aug 28 - SPX 5560p 1 —> 8.70 ($1000 → $8700 potential)
Aug 28 - SPX 5580p 1.75 —> 21 ($1750 → $21000 potential)
Aug 27-28 - PDD 95p 0.75 → $7 ($750 → $7000 potential) *swing trade
Aug 27 - SPX 5620c 4.50 → $19 ($4500 → $19500 potential)
Aug 27 - PDD 95p 0.75 → $1.66 ($750 → $1660 potential) *swing still in play
Aug 26 - PDD 100P $1.50 → $6.50 ($1500 → $6500 potential)
Aug 23 - SPX 5600p $7 → 38 ($7000 → $38000 potential)
Aug 22 - SPX 5600p $7 → 38 ($7000 → $38000 potential)
Aug 21 - META 535c $3 → 8.50 ($3000 → $8500 potential)
Aug 20 - SPX 5600p $4.50 → 15 ($4500 → $18000 potential)
Aug 20 - SPX 5580p $2 → 7 ($2000 → $7000 potential)
Aug 19 - SPX 5600c $0.4 → 8.25 ($400 → $8250 potential)
Aug 15 - SMCI 600c (swing) $2 → 38 ($2000 → $38000 potential)
Aug 15 - SPX 5540c 0.50 —> 3.50 ($500 → $3500 potential)
Aug 14 - SPX 5400p 5.50 → 10 ($5500 → $10000 potential)
Aug 14 - SPX 5450c 4 → 10 ($4000 → $10000 potential)
Aug 14 - SPX 5450c 1.50 → 10 ($1500 → $10000 potential)
Aug 14 - SPX 5460c 0.20 → 3 (0.10 entry goal, took small 0.20) ($200 → $3000 potential)
Aug 13 - SMCI 600c swing $2.5 ($2500 → $10500 potential)
Aug 13 - SPX 5400p 17 stops 15 ($1700 —> $2300 potential)
Aug 12 - SPX5350c $8 stops 7 ($8000 → $25000 potential)
Aug 12 - SPX5340c $0.5 ($500 → $4500 potential)
Aug 09 - NVDA107c $0.2 stops .10 ($2000 → $7000 potential)
Aug 09 - LLY900c $3.50 stops 1.50 ($3500 → $11500 potential)
Aug 07 - SPX 5280p $10 stops 8 ($1000 → $8000+ potential)
Aug 07 - SPX 5200p $1 stops 0.5 ($1000 → $7000+ potential)
Aug 07 - NVDA 100p $0.8 stops 0.4 ($800 → $3300+ potential)
Aug 06 - SPX 5250c $10 stops 8 ($1000 —> $6000+potential)
Aug 06 - SPX 5250p $1.5 stops 0.75($1500 —> $13000+potential)
Aug 05 - SPX 5300c $3.50 stops 2.50 ($3500 —> $11000 +potential)
Aug 02 - SPX 5350p $5.50 (overnight swing from Aug 01) ($5500 —> $45000 +potential)
Aug 01 - SPX 5480p $4.50 ($4500 —> $65000 potential)
July 31 - SPX 5520c $12 ($1200 —> $3390 potential)
July 30 - SPX 5430p $2.50 ($2500 —> $30000 potential)
July 30 - SPX 5400p $2 ($2000 —> $10000 potential)
July 30 - TSLA 220p $1.50 ($1500 —> $5000 potential)
July 30 - SPX 5450c $0.20 ($200 —> $5000 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5450p $4.50 ($4500 —> $16000 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5460p $0.20 ($200 —> $1100 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5470p $1.5 ($1500 —> $8000 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5480c credit sell - collect $2700 risk $500
July 29 - SPX 5400p $2 out $6 ($2000 —> $6000 potential)
July 26 - SPX 5400p $2 out $6 ($2000 —> $6000 potential)
July 26 - SPX 5450c $4 out $12 reached 15.50 ($4000 —> $15500 potential)
July 25 - SPX 5450c $1, $1.50, and $1.75. target $10. reached $10! ($1000 —> $10000 potential)
July 25 - SPX 5450c $5. reached $41.70! ($5000 —> $41700 potential)
July 22 - CRWD 240p $1.7. reached $3.5! ($1700 —> $3500 potential)
July 22 - SPX 5580c $0.5. reached $3.3! ($500 —> $3300 potential)
July 19 - SPX 5500p $2. reached $12! ($2000 —> $12000 potential)
July 18 - SPX 5580p $5. reached $53+! ($5000 —> $53000 potential)
July 17 - SPX 5540c $2. reached $16! ($2000 —> $16000 potential)
July 16 - SPX 5660c $2. reached $10! ($2000 —> $10000 potential)
July 15 - SPX 5650c $1. reached $4! ($1000 —> $4000 potential)
July 11 - SPX 5600p $2. reached $23! ($2000 —> $23000 potential)
July 09 - Credit Sell SPX 5590/5595 bear calls 2.30-2.50 stops at 2.60 ( $2500 premium collected per 5k position risking $300)
July 08 - AVGO 1800c 13( $1300—> $2250 potential)
July 08 - SPX 5560p 2.50 stops 2.30 ( $2500—> $5000 potential)
July 08 - TSLA 270c 4.50 target 7.50 ( $4500—> $7600 potential)
July 03 - SPX 5520 2.5 ($2500—> $18000 potential)
July 02 - TSLA 225c 3.5 ($3500—> $8500 potential)
July 02 - SPX 5500c 2.50 ($2500 —> $10000 potential)
July 02 - SPX 5470 Bull Puts 2.50 ($2500 credit collected)
July 01 - closed TSLA Swing $2.65—> $12.00
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
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Trade Recap for Wed Sep 25
GOLD BOLD ITALIC = price action signal
GOLD REGULAR = action to take/taken
GREEN REGULAR = trades I should have taken
SPY / SPX
We had to be super patient yesterday. I was ok not opening trades but around 11:30-12 a trade finally setup based on VWAP repeatedly being rejected.
As SPY started breaking down I also started planning the bounce of 569. I guesstimated that I would be able fill SPX 5730c for $1. It dipped perfectly to $1 ripped to 2.20, dipped again to 1 and then ripped to 2, and dipped again to 1 and then ripped to $4! that last dip was a failed break down reversal setup and when the 9ma cleared look how it ripped t the previous support level at 570.30!
Based on all this action and Moe’s obervtion of flow we loaded up on SPX 5760c for today. I also thought market could revese given the flush we got in IWM and alerted 220c for Friday. Let’s see how today plays out!
Guys after these 2 trades, I was really interested in over trading especially with the action yesterday.
TSLA
Continued its consolidation and there was nothing new to do but to hold on to our swing trade from the 250 dips and 236 dip from last week
Overnight Musk gifted us with a pump. The question now is do we get a 257 back test or not and do we rip and clear 270 by tomorrow?
The 250c from last Friday were 2.20 and in premarket should be $12-14.
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Education - How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows/failed breakdown reversal
Join at vwap mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Education - Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Let me know in the comments if you have questions or would like to see examples, I’ll share them.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Thursday Sept 26
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
It will all depend on how market reacts to Powell and Economic data at 8:30. Overall I’d love for a min rip for 15 to 30 minutes at the open and then for profit taking to look for support and some gap fill. I’ll be starting with that thought process but anything can happen.