When Will the Carnage Stop? SPY Drops a Rare 150 Points on relentless selling! Trade ideas for Thursday July 25, 2024
Good morning traders!
Wow. I missed most of the drop yesterday, waiting for my orders to fill after SPY broke 548. That is OK. I’ve trained myself to not chase, and I need a back test for an entry or an excellent risk reward. I was able to scalp a long for small bounces a couple of times for 50-100% gains and also lost a couple of times on the long side looking for that back test to come! The selling was relentless. I then had to be patient and was able to scalp a 5-7 bagger trade in the last 15 minutes.
I had to chase SPX 5450p at $4 when I was trying to get it for $2 in the afternoon. So I got much smaller size than I wanted. Using the levels I was targeting a $12-$30 exit. The 5450p hit $28!!!
Let’s review yesterday’s Price Action and then get into ideas for today. SPY 0.00%↑
Introduction (for New Readers)
Welcome to my blog on Two Hour Trading—your daily source for market insights and trading opportunities. Here, you’ll find comprehensive market analysis, educational lessons, and trade ideas to help you excel in trading, all while spending less than two hours a day.
What Subscribers Get
Subscribers receive daily market analysis updates, educational content, and up to three trade ideas each morning based on real-life examples and my trading approach.
NOTE: screenshots from chat are from Edge Trade Planner. A platform available to THT PRO members. Join Us for live commentary and planning. Note my goal is to actively trade less than 2 hours a day finding 1 to 4 great trades a day.
What is Two Hour Trading?
Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Alert Leaderboard
Here's a look at some of the potential gains achieved through our entry alerts:
July 22 - CRWD 240p $1.7. reached $3.5! ($1700 —> $3500 potential)
July 22 - SPX 5580c $0.5. reached $3.3! ($500 —> $3300 potential)
July 19 - SPX 5500p $2. reached $12! ($2000 —> $12000 potential)
July 18 - SPX 5580p $5. reached $53+! ($5000 —> $53000 potential)
July 17 - SPX 5540c $2. reached $16! ($2000 —> $16000 potential)
July 16 - SPX 5660c $2. reached $10! ($2000 —> $10000 potential)
July 15 - SPX 5650c $1. reached $4! ($1000 —> $4000 potential)
July 11 - SPX 5600p $2. reached $23! ($2000 —> $23000 potential)
July 09 - Credit Sell SPX 5590/5595 bear calls 2.30-2.50 stops at 2.60 ( $2500 premium collected per 5k position risking $300)
July 08 - AVGO 1800c 13( $1300—> $2250 potential)
July 08 - SPX 5560p 2.50 stops 2.30 ( $2500—> $5000 potential)
July 08 - TSLA 270c 4.50 target 7.50 ( $4500—> $7600 potential)
July 03 - SPX 5520 2.5 ($2500—> $18000 potential)
July 02 - TSLA 225c 3.5 ($3500—> $8500 potential)
July 02 - SPX 5500c 2.50 ($2500 —> $10000 potential)
July 02 - SPX 5470 Bull Puts 2.50 ($2500 credit collected)
July 01 - closed TSLA Swing $2.65—> $12.00
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
For live alerts and market commentary click the button below.
Tuesday’s Recap
Let’s review Monday’s trades. Did you take advantage? If not read on an learn how.
SPY/SPX
Yesterday’s idea was spot on! Check out what happened after 548 broke!
Notice the 548 backtest at 10:30 fail. doing SPX 5460 or SPX 5480 bear calls would be worry free credit sells, while waiting for contracts to get cheap! I was targeting 5450p using a $12 minimum sell as a guide and with a possible $30-40 bonus exit. For yolos I was hawking SPX 5430p but missed the entry by 0.20 :( those went 20x
Let’s review. Yesterday SPY broke 548. I spent most of the day waiting for a pop to get entry. I alerted I was hawking SPX 5450p for $2 when it was around $3 after lunch. It dipped to $2.60 and than ripped to $28 by end of day!! I ended up chasing at $4.
Here is the price action on SPX 5450p
AAPL
I saw some interesting volume on AAPL 215p when it was around 0.45 and alerted that to THT PRO members. My thoughts were that these could hit 2.50. So I jumped in with 0.15 risk. I want to sell at 5R. 0.15*5 = 0.75. + 0.50 entry gives me 1.25. So I placed sell orders for 80% of the position in the 1.20 - 1.30. and leave 20% in case the 2.50 target comes. Amazing what the right plan can do for you. These contracts hit $1.30!!! and then reversed to 0.75.
Part of my logic in taking profits is that when someone makes a $1m bet for 0.50. I think they are going to start selling at 100-150% gains to at minimum take the risk off and possibly lock in most for a not bad pay day!
TSLA
In after hours on Tuesday, I alerted to THT PRO members short commons on TSLA 240 stops 245 with target of 220 or less. By the open TSLA was at 225, we took 215 and 220p in the room with TSLA hitting the 215 level precisely before bouncing. I also then alert I was looking for rejections at 222 for reload short which is precisely where TSLA rejected before heading lower!
Education - How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows/failed breakdown reversal
Join at vwap mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Education - Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Let me know in the comments if you have questions or would like to see examples, I’ll share them.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Thursday July 25
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
In theory Buyers should develop here at the 50ma, but lets see. Tomorrow inflation numbers coming out so today could be chop and positioning for expectations on that data tomorrow
Here are the levels and ideas: