Trump Day 2. SPY and QQQ gapping up on $NFLX e/r and $500B AI investment plan. Trade ideas for Jan 22, 2024
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Good morning traders !
I was very frustrated yesterday because it was incredibly hard to make more than 100-200% on SPX options and I nailed the TSLA scoop buy idea but missed the entry by .08!!!
That said we were still green and based on the price action I opened a number of swing trades. Let’s go over each one and for the purpose of education WHY each trade.
Swing Ideas I took yesterday and why
Theme: Market going higher this week. I got the 599 dip and 601.50 clearance I was looking for in intraday action
$ORCL 180c for 1/31. Paid $2 while at 172.50. Touched 190 overnight. Why? I loved the daily chart and the intraday price action. There was talk of Trump making an announcement and that ORCL might be a bidder for TikTok.
$AVGO 242.50c Paid 2.50 while at 240. Touched 246 overnight with 250 target. Justin a THT PRO member shared this idea. Why? I had AVGO on my radar based on recent price action thinking 247+ may come. The daily chart looked ripe for upside and it had AI/Chip momentum from Softbank as possible catalyst.
$TSLA 440c for 3.35 hit $5 before close, but gapping down from 424 to 417 in premarket today Why? after deep dip yesterday I was looking for a short squeeze into 430. There was heavy volume buying around 411.
$SPX 6070c for $6.50 at close now $15.50 and /ES 6090. Why? Ibecause of NFLX 0.00%↑ earnings AND because of the 599 back test and 601.50 clerance. too me this meant 604-606 likely coming today.
$TEM commons 46.25 hit 56.80 overnight. Why? I was waiting for a deep dip into 43 but only got 44.50 and it reclaimed vwap at 46. I alert TEM as a long idea in yesterday’s blog.
Options Scanner Update
Still working on getting the data reliable. But it did alert some interesting action yesterday.
This morning NVDA is gapping up to over 145!
Playbook Scanner Update
Found a bug with the Gap Reversal Playbook that was causing the playbook to break the process. It also nicely alerted shorts but with too much confidence, but given the all day grinder action yesterday didn’t hit targets. (That is 100% ok)
Tuesday Highlights
SPY - Yesterday I wrote I wanted 599 back test before 601 cleared and we got exactly that. I also told members I was looking for a push into 603-603.50 into the close allowing us to scoop 6035c for $6 with it running to $15 into the close.
TSLA - I was wrong. I was looking for a 421 dip and should have taken 420p. out of the gate. Overall TSLA dropped 4 levels to 408 at which point I had to go long. The fascinating thing is how even thought I didn’t expect this much of a drop, I did semi accurately estimated the dip buy price on TSLA 440c right at the open. I alert wanting 2.50 for the entry. it dipped to 2.58. After reclaiming 411, TSLA squeezed to 424.
NFLX - reported earnings and raising of prices. Gapped up in after hours to 990 from 869.
GS - yesterday I wrote I think a 610 back test is needed before more upside. Yesterday it did it all in one go. Dipped to 609 and then ran to 634!!!
AAPL - dumped right to 220 target without giving us a pop to 227-228 to load up short. On Friday, based on price action I alerted on X: “Sayonara $AAPL”. It was weak while market had strength. Over the weekend we leaned Pelosi sold shares
TEM- Yesterday I wrote that I wanted a swing long on it due to Pelosi. Base on the price action it ran to 49! likely sees 55+ this week.
Wednesday Premarket Highlights
SPY 0.00%↑ - gapping up into 606 in premarket!
TEM 0.00%↑ - hit 56.80 overnight but back down to 49 in premarket.
NFLX 0.00%↑ - gapping up to 995+
AVGO 0.00%↑ - gapping up to 246+
ORCL 0.00%↑ - gapping up to 190 .
TSLA 0.00%↑ - gapping down to 417. money may shift away from TSLA this week without some catalyst or news.
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Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2025 Q1 Alert Leaderboard
Here's a look at some of the potential gains achieved through our entry alerts:
Intraday Alerts
2024-01-02 SPX 5880p 11 to 40+
2024-01-02 SPX 5820p $2 to 10
2024-01-03 SPX 5930c $2, dipped to $3 and ran to $11
2024-01-06 SPX 5980p $1.70 → $20 ($1700 to $20k potential)
2024-01-07 SPX 5900p $0.50 → $11 ($500 to $11000 potential)
2024-01-07 SPX 5930p $5 → $17.4 ($5000 to $17400 potential)
2024-01-07 SPX 5930p $5 → $40 ($500 to $4000 potential)
2024-01-08 SPX 5800p 1/10 $4 → $10 ($400 to $1000 potential)
2024-01-10 SPX 5800p 1/10 $4 → $10 ($400 to $1000 potential)
2024-01-13 SPX 5820c $5 → $10 ($400 to $1000 potential) **Round 1
2024-01-13 SPX 5820c $2.80 → $16 ($400 to $1000 potential) ** Round 2
2024-01-13 SPX 5820c $4.50 → $16 ($400 to $1000 potential)** Round 3
2024-01-14 SPX 5870c $0.75 → $3.75 ($750 to $3750 potential)
2024-01-14 TSLA 430c $0.75 → $3.75 ($750 to $3750 potential)
2024-01-15 SPX 5950c $9 → $14 ($9000 to $14000 potential)
2024-01-15 GS 610c $2 → $4.50 ($2000 to $4500 potential)
2024-01-15 TSLA 430c $3-4 → $8.20 ($3500 to $8200 potential)
2024-01-15 QQQ 514p $0.8 → $1.82 ($8000 to $18200 potential)
2024-01-16 AAPL 235p $0.7 → $7 ($700 to $7000 potential)
2024-01-16 SPX 5980c $7 → $12 ($700 to $1200 potential)
2024-01-16 SPX 5970c $2 → $5 ($2000 to $5000 potential)
2024-01-16 SPX 5970c $2 → $5 ($2000 to $5000 potential)
2024-01-17 SPX 6000c $8 → $17.2 ($8000 to $17200 potential)
2024-01-17 TSLA 430c $2 → 5.20 ($2000 to $5200 potential)** Round 1
2024-01-17 TSLA 430c $2.30 → 9.9 ($2000 to $9900 potential)** Round 2
2025-01-17 SPX 6000p $0.50 → $5 ($500 to $5000 potential)
2025-01-17 SPX 6020c $0.50 → $0.30 ($500 to $300 stopped.) ** was a combo trade with the 6000p
2025-01-21 SPX 6035c $5→ $15 ($5000 to $15000 potenital.)
2025-01-21 TSLA 440c $2.90→ $5.30 ($2900 to $5300 potenital.) **dipped to 2.58. alerted 2.50 entry wanted.
Swing Alerts
2024-01-13 TSLA 430c $1.30 → 8.82 ($1300 to $8820 potential) **alerted exits at 6.50 and 8
2024-01-15 GS 610c $2 → 8 ** exit on 1/16
2024-01-15 GS 610 $2 → $16 ** missed reload on dips. exit on 1/17
2025-01-16 SPX 6000c 1/17 $3 → 17.20 ** dipped to $2 on Thursday, exit majority at $12.
2025-01-22 SPX 6070c 1/17 $6.50 → 17? in premarket
2025-01-22 AVGO 242.50c 1/24 $2.50 → ?
2025-01-22 ORCL 180c 1/31 $2 → 10+? i premarket
Credit Sell Alerts
2024-01-14 SPX 5800/5795 bull puts for 1.50-2.50. $2000 credit potential using 10 contracts and $1000 risk.
2024-01-15 SPX 5950/5955 bear calls for $2→0. $2000-4200 credit potential. Round 1 dipped to 0.75. Round 2 ran to $4.20 and then dropped to 0.
2024-01-16 SPX 5950/5955 bear calls for $2→0. $2000-3000 credit potential. Round 1 dipped to 0.75. Round 2 ran to $3 and then dropped to 0. ** not a typo, same play paid.
2024-01-16 SPX 6020/6025 bear calls for 3.50 ** DID NOT FILL. (the 1.50 at time of alert went to 0)
2024-01-21 SPX 6035/6050 bear calls for 2 stopped 2.50
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
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Trade Recap for Tuesday Jan 22
GOLD BOLD ITALIC = price action signal
WHITE REGULAR = action to take/taken
GREEN REGULAR = trades I should have taken
SPY / SPX
Out of time this morning. Will try and update later today. ** SORRY ALL
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Education - How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows/failed breakdown reversal
Join at vwap mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Education - Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Let me know in the comments if you have questions or would like to see examples, I’ll share them.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Wed Jan 22
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
Big gap up this morning. Will stick to process and look for profit taking and then determine if rally wants to continue.