SPY makes a RED after running into news highs over multiple days. Do we get a second red day? -- Trade ideas for Friday June 21, 2024
SPY makes a RED after running into news highs over multiple days. Do we get a second red day? -- Trade ideas for Friday June 21, 2024
Good morning traders. Sorry for not posting the last couple of days. It’s been super hectic and this morning was a disaster. With market gapping up, and a no brainer gap up short reversal excitement I was ready to make levels and plan great trades.
But life had another plan…. I have a number of morning processes I follow and one of the pieces crapped out, edumomo.com had a critical error so that created a scramble that took hours to patch and then more time in afternoon/evening to hopefully resolve.
Overall the good news.. Process work, even with levels not being completely updated and having morning madness. I was looking for pushes into 11 or morning highs to position short and boy did that pay off in NVDA, SMCI, AVGO, and SPX.
Reminder, the purpose of this blog is to teach you the fundamental concepts I use in my trading every day so you can make more with less time and effort! To use the processes I teach to plan, position and profit!
Let’s review the logic for the trades and then talk about trade ideas for today.
Introduction (for New Readers)
Welcome to my blog on Two Hour Trading, your daily source for market insights and trading opportunities. In this blog, I will provide you with a comprehensive analysis of the market, educational lessons, and trade ideas to help you stay ahead in your trading journey and best of all doing it less than two hours a day.
What Subscribers Get
Subscribers to this blog will receive daily updates on market analysis, educational content, and up to three trade ideas each morning, all based on real-life examples and my personal approach to trading.
NOTE: screenshots from chat are from Edge Trade Planner. A platform available to THT PRO members. Join Us for live commentary and planning. Note my goal is to actively trade less than 2 hours a day finding 1 to 4 great trades a day.
What is Two Hour Trading?
It’s my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to setup. Key benefits:
High Quality trades with great reward vs risk
Avoid Overtrading and losses from it
Trading to Win vs Trading to Not Lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Alert Leaderboard
(I’ve decided to include a leaderboard so you can see what potential the 2 Hour Trading System has)
The following is based on entry alerts.
June 20 - NVDA 135p $0.75 —> ($750—> $5000 potential)
June 20 - SPX 4480p $1.50 —> ($1500—> $10000 potential)
June 20 - SPX 4475p $0.50 —> ($500—> $5000 potential)
June 13 - SMCI 820c $10 stops $5 —> ($1000—> $6200 potential)
June 13 - SMCI 900c $2.50 stops $1.25 —> ($2500—> $13000 potential)
June 13 - AVGO 1650p $5 stops $3 —> ($5000—> $22500 potential)
June 12 - SPX puts on SPY 544 reject —> SPX 5220p went from $1 to $12
June 12 - AAPL 220c $0.85 —> ($850 —> $2800 potential)
June 11 - AAPL 200c $1.50 —> ($1500 —> $7500 potential —> $20000 if swung)
June 11 - AAPL 205c 6/21 $1 (swing) —> ($1000 -$6000 —> $15000 if swung)
June 11 - SPX 5360c $2.50 —> ($2500 —> $15000 potential)
June 10 - SPX 5350c $4.20 —> ($4200 —> $16000 potential)
June 6 - NVDA 1220c $12 —> ($1200 —> $2100 potential)
June 5- SPX 5350c 0.30 —> ($3000 —> $45000 potential)
June 5 - META 490c $3 —> ($3000 —> $9500 potential)
June 4 - SPX 5290/95 bear calls $1.80 —> ($1500 credit potential, $1000 if held to close)
June 3 - SPX 5280p $5 —> ($500 —> $4500 potential)
May 22 - SPX 5280p $0.10 —> ($1000 —> $43000 potential)
May 22 - SPX 5300p $0.50 —> ($500 —> $15000 potential)
May 21 - SPX 5320c $0.50 (alert: 0.25 target $2-5) —> ($500 —> $6000 potential)
May 21 - SMCI 1000c $9.25 Swing (entry day before) —> ($925 —> $2100 potential)
May 17 - AMD 170c $0.20 Swing (entry day before) —> ($200 —> $1500 potential)
May 16 - SPX 5300p $0.20 Round 3 —> ($200 —> $2800 potential)
May 16 - SPX 5300p $0.50 Round 2 —> ($500 —> $2600 potential)
May 16 - SPX 5300p $1 Round 1 —> ($1000 —> $5000 potential)
May 15 - SMCI 850c $12 —> ($1200 —> $10000 potential)
May 14 - SPX 5240c $0.50 —> ($500 —> $10600 potential)
May 14 - SPX 5230/5225 bull puts $4 —> ($4000 premium potential)
May 14 - SPX 5245c $0.20 —> ($200 —> $6000 potential)
May 14 - SPX 5240c $0.50 —> ($500 —> $10600 potential)
May 14 - SPX 5230/5225 bull puts $4 —> ($4000 premium potential)
May 13 - SPX 5220/5215 bull puts $2.50 —> ($2500 premium potential)
May 13 - TSLA 170p $1.90 —> ($1900 —> $2890 potential)
May 10 - AMD 162.50p $0.25 (0.25 entry) —> ($250 —> $1600 potential)
May 9 - SPX 5210c $1.25 (1-1.50 entry) —> ($1250 —> $6200 potential)
May 9 - SPX 5220c $0.20 —> ($200 —> $1100 potential)
May 9 - SPX 5200c $3 —> ($3000 —> 15800 potential) (dipped to 2.20)
May 8 - SPX 5200/5205 bear calls $1.20 —> ($1200 premium potential)
May 8 - SPX 5190/5195 bear calls $1.50 —> ($1500 premium potential)
May 8 - SPX 5180c $4 —> ($400—> $1100 potential)
May 7 - SPX 5190c $1 —> ($1000—> $4000 potential)
May 7 - SPX 5190c $1 —> ($1000—> $4000 potential)
May 7 - DIS 105p $0.40 —> ($400—> $1600 potential)
May 6 - SPX 5170c $3 —> ($300—> $1100 potential)
May 6 - SPX 5175c $0.40 —> ($400 —>$7000 potential)
May 3 - SPX 5150/5155 bear calls $1.50 —> ($1500 premium potential)
May 2 - SPX 5020p $7 —> ($700 → $2180 potential)
May 2 - SPX 5070c $1.20 —> ($1500 → $7200 potential)
May 2 - SPX 5070c $3—> ($3000 → $7200 potential)
Apr 30 - SPX 5080p $3 —> ($3000 → $45000 potential)
Apr 23 - SPX 5060/5055 bull puts - Entry $1.75 ($1750 premium potential) drawdown < $200
Apr 22 - SPX 5050c swing - $5.50 → ($5500 → $42000 potential)
Apr 22 - SPX 5000c - $3.20 → ($3200 → $39000 potential)
Apr 22 - SPX 5020c - $0.20 alert, dipped to 0.55, fill at $0.70 → ($700 → $20000 potential)
Apr 19 - SMCI 750p - $1.50 → ($1500 → $38k+ potential)
Apr 19 - NVDA 800p - Entry $0.5 ($500→$40k potential)
Apr 18 - SPX 5050c - Entry $6 ($6000→$16000 potential)
Apr 18 - SPX 5020p - Entry $4 ($5000→$20000 potential)
Apr 16 - SPX 5140/5135 bull puts - Entry $2.50 ($2500 premium potential) drawdown < $300
Apr 12 - SPX 5100p $1. (dipped to 1.30) - Entry $2 ($2500 premium potential)
Apr 11 - SPX 5180/5185 bear calls - Entry $2.50 ($2500 premium potential)
Apr 10 - SPX 5180/5185 bear calls - Entry $2.50 ($2500 premium potential)
Apr 10 - SPX 5170c - Entry 0.50 ($500 → $5000 potential)
Apr 9 - SPX 5185/5180 bull puts - Entry $3 ($3000 premium potential)
Apr 9 - SPX 5205c - Entry $0.50 ($500→ $6000 potential)
Apr 8 - SPX 5225/5230 bear calls - Entry $1.20 ($1200 premium potential)
Apr 8 - SPX 5200/5195 bear puts - Entry $0.10 ($1000→ $8000 potential)
Apr 4 - SPX 5250p - Entry $4 ($4000→ $100k potential)
Apr 4 - SPX 5180p - Entry $1.30 ($1300 > $32k potential)
Apr 3 - SPX 5175/5170 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
Apr 2 - SPX 5175/5170 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
Apr 2 - SPX 5205/5200 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
For live alerts and market commentary click the button below.
Thursday’s Price Action (Education)
You don't try to make $100,000 ...You don’t start by saying, I’m going to make the biggest most profitable trade and turn $1000 into $100,000 and fix all my bad trades before.
You say, I’m going to plan and execute 1 trade as perfectly as I can today. You do that every single day, and soon you'll have a $100,000 and likely much more!
Please note all times are Eastern/New York regardless of what time zone I happen to be in.
SPY / SPX
Pretty clean gap up reversal. I wanted 551.50-552 to load the boat short. This came in. premarket. During the first couple of hours Vwap was rejected and provided a great entry risking 30-50% targeting 555 and 553.
It didn’t develop and my 5580 SPX puts for $2 didn’t fill. (it dipped to like 2.60) and then ripped to $20. I usually leave for the gym around 11:30am and train until 1pm. Market dumped and I missed this short. however I was positioned in puts on NVDA and that paid off!
NVDA
NVDA has been running like crazy!!!
Here is another great example of using VWAP for entry and then targeting the levels below. A perfect gap up reversal fail after a multi-day run.
That is the key. look for multiple green days, going parabolic and then look to get hort on gap ups. There were 2 trade entries here.
First trade setup was on the vwap rejection around 11am.
The second trade setup involved the 133-134 area. After market flushed and bottomed at 130, I mentioned I wanted a pop into 133.50 ish area to reshort. We basically got that around 2:30 to reload short for a nice flush and partial swing into tomorrow.
In theory NVDA hits 125s today.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Friday June 21
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
In theory SPY should a second red day, but we gap down in premarket and bounced off 544 which was my next target. I’m going to assume more downside unless 548 is on reclaimed.
There should be a couple of morning trades and fast scalps at the open, but I will skip those. After lots of analysis, lately my loss rates during first hour are higher and the bang for the buck trades where I get 50%-200% gains comes after 10:30-11 and my 500%+ trades come after 2pm. As a result, until something changes I plan to avoid opening trades during first hour and likely go to the gym and run errands to avoid temptation of opening trades during first hour. It’ super interesting because the first hour use to be my bread and butter. Either I’ve changed or the market behavior has. The important thing to be able to reflect, analyze, and adapt.
The likely cause is that I’m looking to plan, position, and trade much less but for bigger rewards.