SPY has coiled over last few days. Will FOMC trigger a large move? Trade ideas for Wednesday May 22, 2024
Was the Amazon halt chip orders report a dip buy hit piece? NVDA reports tonight. We got a 10 bagger even in yesterday's tight range!
Good morning traders!
After waiting for days with SPY coiling in a tight range, will this afternoon bring a large move? My plan is to trade the morning session and then focus on coding algo and then come back after 2:30pm ET. Watch your sizing and emotions today. There are can be many traps on FOMC days. That is why I choose 2:30 to come back. Its to let range be set and let contracts bleed out. I may not even open a trade until 3pm for the last hour.
Yesterday wasn’t too bad but there was a lot of waiting. But that waiting paid off! I was able to identify a 10 bagger!
Let’s get into yesterdays trades and the ideas for today. (including yesterday’s hit piece on NVDA)
Introduction (for New Readers)
Welcome to my blog on Two Hour Trading, your daily source for market insights and trading opportunities. In this blog, I will provide you with a comprehensive analysis of the market, educational lessons, and trade ideas to help you stay ahead in your trading journey and best of all doing it less than two hours a day.
What Subscribers Get
Subscribers to this blog will receive daily updates on market analysis, educational content, and up to three trade ideas each morning, all based on real-life examples and my personal approach to trading.
NOTE: screenshots from chat are from Edge Trade Planner. A platform available to THT PRO members. Join Us for live commentary and planning. Note my goal is to actively trade less than 2 hours a day finding 1 to 4 great trades a day.
What is Two Hour Trading?
It’s my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to setup. Key benefits:
High Quality trades with great reward vs risk
Avoid Overtrading and losses from it
Trading to Win vs Trading to Not Lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Alert Leaderboard
(I’ve decided to include a leaderboard so you can see what potential the 2 Hour Trading System has)
The following is based on entry alerts.
May 21 - SPX 5320c $0.50 (alert: 0.25 target $2-5) —> ($500 —> $6000 potential)
May 21 - SMCI 1000c $9.25 Swing (entry day before) —> ($925 —> $2100 potential)
May 17 - AMD 170c $0.20 Swing (entry day before) —> ($200 —> $1500 potential)
May 16 - SPX 5300p $0.20 Round 3 —> ($200 —> $2800 potential)
May 16 - SPX 5300p $0.50 Round 2 —> ($500 —> $2600 potential)
May 16 - SPX 5300p $1 Round 1 —> ($1000 —> $5000 potential)
May 15 - SMCI 850c $12 —> ($1200 —> $10000 potential)
May 14 - SPX 5240c $0.50 —> ($500 —> $10600 potential)
May 14 - SPX 5230/5225 bull puts $4 —> ($4000 premium potential)
May 14 - SPX 5245c $0.20 —> ($200 —> $6000 potential)
May 14 - SPX 5240c $0.50 —> ($500 —> $10600 potential)
May 14 - SPX 5230/5225 bull puts $4 —> ($4000 premium potential)
May 13 - SPX 5220/5215 bull puts $2.50 —> ($2500 premium potential)
May 13 - TSLA 170p $1.90 —> ($1900 —> $2890 potential)
May 10 - AMD 162.50p $0.25 (0.25 entry) —> ($250 —> $1600 potential)
May 9 - SPX 5210c $1.25 (1-1.50 entry) —> ($1250 —> $6200 potential)
May 9 - SPX 5220c $0.20 —> ($200 —> $1100 potential)
May 9 - SPX 5200c $3 —> ($3000 —> 15800 potential) (dipped to 2.20)
May 8 - SPX 5200/5205 bear calls $1.20 —> ($1200 premium potential)
May 8 - SPX 5190/5195 bear calls $1.50 —> ($1500 premium potential)
May 8 - SPX 5180c $4 —> ($400—> $1100 potential)
May 7 - SPX 5190c $1 —> ($1000—> $4000 potential)
May 7 - SPX 5190c $1 —> ($1000—> $4000 potential)
May 7 - DIS 105p $0.40 —> ($400—> $1600 potential)
May 6 - SPX 5170c $3 —> ($300—> $1100 potential)
May 6 - SPX 5175c $0.40 —> ($400 —>$7000 potential)
May 3 - SPX 5150/5155 bear calls $1.50 —> ($1500 premium potential)
May 2 - SPX 5020p $7 —> ($700 → $2180 potential)
May 2 - SPX 5070c $1.20 —> ($1500 → $7200 potential)
May 2 - SPX 5070c $3—> ($3000 → $7200 potential)
Apr 30 - SPX 5080p $3 —> ($3000 → $45000 potential)
Apr 23 - SPX 5060/5055 bull puts - Entry $1.75 ($1750 premium potential) drawdown < $200
Apr 22 - SPX 5050c swing - $5.50 → ($5500 → $42000 potential)
Apr 22 - SPX 5000c - $3.20 → ($3200 → $39000 potential)
Apr 22 - SPX 5020c - $0.20 alert, dipped to 0.55, fill at $0.70 → ($700 → $20000 potential)
Apr 19 - SMCI 750p - $1.50 → ($1500 → $38k+ potential)
Apr 19 - NVDA 800p - Entry $0.5 ($500→$40k potential)
Apr 18 - SPX 5050c - Entry $6 ($6000→$16000 potential)
Apr 18 - SPX 5020p - Entry $4 ($5000→$20000 potential)
Apr 16 - SPX 5140/5135 bull puts - Entry $2.50 ($2500 premium potential) drawdown < $300
Apr 12 - SPX 5100p $1. (dipped to 1.30) - Entry $2 ($2500 premium potential)
Apr 11 - SPX 5180/5185 bear calls - Entry $2.50 ($2500 premium potential)
Apr 10 - SPX 5180/5185 bear calls - Entry $2.50 ($2500 premium potential)
Apr 10 - SPX 5170c - Entry 0.50 ($500 → $5000 potential)
Apr 9 - SPX 5185/5180 bull puts - Entry $3 ($3000 premium potential)
Apr 9 - SPX 5205c - Entry $0.50 ($500→ $6000 potential)
Apr 8 - SPX 5225/5230 bear calls - Entry $1.20 ($1200 premium potential)
Apr 8 - SPX 5200/5195 bear puts - Entry $0.10 ($1000→ $8000 potential)
Apr 4 - SPX 5250p - Entry $4 ($4000→ $100k potential)
Apr 4 - SPX 5180p - Entry $1.30 ($1300 > $32k potential)
Apr 3 - SPX 5175/5170 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
Apr 2 - SPX 5175/5170 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
Apr 2 - SPX 5205/5200 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
For live alerts and market commentary click the button below.
Tuesday’s Price Action (Education)
You don't try to make $100,000 ...You don’t start by saying, I’m going to make the biggest most profitable trade and turn $1000 into $100,000 and fix all my bad trades before.
You say, I’m going to plan and execute 1 trade as perfectly as I can today. You do that every single day, and soon you'll have a $100,000 and likely much more!
Please note all times are Eastern/New York regardless of what time zone I happen to be in.
SPY / SPX
No surprise yesterday. basically continuation from previous days dip buy and pushed for that 531.50 level. Overall each dip was bought, and the key was to watch for that failed breakdown that developed after 1pm.
Using my levels I was able to predict that SPX 5320c will hit $2-5 and I alerted I wanted to scoop for 0.25. I started in at 0.50 though it dipped to 0.40. Unfortunately I didn’t get the 0.20-0.25 price I wanted to really size in.
Above this the option pricing for SPX 5320c. Reaching SPY 531.50 meant SPX of approximate 5324. Those that follow my levels know how often my levels are hit.
NFLX
This was a no brainer. After 8 days of consolidation, the breakout and volume over 620 triggered and we could target 636 and minimum to come and possible new 52 week highs.
Today I’m watching for a dip on 635 for a long in case a day 2 rally comes. Be careful after such a large move in could go back into consolidation mode.
SMCI
SMCI gapped down yesterday with NVDA on news that AMZN was pausing orders on chips. To me it felt like a hit piece to drive the stock price down ahead of e/r. NVDA contracts were super juiced so I stuck with our 1000c swing from the day before and then added as we broke higher after the first 15minutes.
Notice how we dipped but did not break yesterday’s 870 dip buy level… As long as that was the case I believe we would see a rally toward 940-950 and we got just that.
I had estimated we would be able to sell for $20, and the 1000c hit $21 after dipping to 8 in the morning. Solid work team!
Trade Ideas - Plan for Wednesday May 22
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Yesterday was pretty wild with our MSFT and SMCI swings paying nicely. TSLA got triggered to hit the 187.50 level with a lot of 195 and 200 call buying coming in.
The big question for me, is what great risk/reward opportunities is there. Many names are near highs and they could continue higher but it isn’t necessarily my process to buy and key buying dips and hope for upside.
I will stick to process. I will identify a bias up or down in relation ship to levels and then look for price action to match that. Finally we then figure out the best risk/reward pricing for the contracts to open a trade.
This doesn’t change. EVER.
Ideas
Given today is FOMC, I plan to look for BTFD on this market gap down (so far) and take a scalp trade to the upside. I then plan to do nothing until after FOMC. I don’t want to overpay and I don’t want to get chopped up.
That said, if there is an extreme move, with failed breakdown or breakout setup, I will take that trade.
I don’t plan to open any trades in SMCI or NVDA today ahead of e/r. will wait for tomorrow.