SPY extends run on Wednesday hitting 551 target by end of day. Bitcoin breaks 60k as predicted for worst weekly loss since FTX. Trade ideas for Friday July 5, 2024.
TSLA continues rally despite Pelosi selling shares. Pelosi also buy ITM NVDA calls. Read for ideas on how I plan to trade the action in TSLA and NVDA
Good morning traders!
It’s Friday and I hope everyone had a great 4th of July. Volume may be light if many traders take today off for an extended weekened. Not to fret, because algos are doing most of the work these days imho. Our job is to take advantage of their positioning and action and this year has been amazing! Have you been using my levels to target? if you have, the algos have been driving prices to my levels consistently and if you are using my process, you know that with patience you can plan and get rewards of 3,10 sometimes 20x based on Math!
Wednesday was no different! Based on the THT process, we got positioned with bull puts and SPX 5520 calls targeting 5530+ by the close. results: $2000 premium collected on bull puts. and SPX 5520c went from $2.50 to a high of $18 beating my $12 target by another 50%! One of the key aspects of the THT process is to look for trades with a minimum of 5R potential. This means we regularly get 3R and many times we get 10R+. Even with a 50% win rate you will be profitable. with an 80% win rate, you compound like a champ.
It’s been a great few weeks and I’m super excited about today’s potential. We are pushing into highs, hopefully setting up for a gap up reversal / profit taking — I’m using the dump in btc as a sentiment indicator for possible risk-off action. Take it with a grain of salt, because while btc has been teetering, SPY has been rallying.
I share a lot of great insights in the blog, be sure to share it with friends. For example, when btc hit 60k, I said I think it will bounce to 64k before it breaks and if 60k breaks it could get ugly. It did just that! While I don’t trade crypto, my insights into momentum work across any trading vehicle in any market with volume. Our COIN 220p and 200p yolos should be up nicely.
So let get down to business. Teaching you how I read and traded the price action on Wednesday, and then get into ideas and levels for today.
If you're struggling, take some time to review past blog posts and learn the processes and core trade setups I use. Patience is key. Don't force yourself into a trade. Only enter trades at or near key levels with enough range to the next level to provide a great risk/reward opportunity.
Introduction (for New Readers)
Welcome to my blog on Two Hour Trading, your daily source for market insights and trading opportunities. In this blog, I will provide you with a comprehensive analysis of the market, educational lessons, and trade ideas to help you stay ahead in your trading journey and best of all doing it less than two hours a day.
What Subscribers Get
Subscribers to this blog will receive daily updates on market analysis, educational content, and up to three trade ideas each morning, all based on real-life examples and my personal approach to trading.
NOTE: screenshots from chat are from Edge Trade Planner. A platform available to THT PRO members. Join Us for live commentary and planning. Note my goal is to actively trade less than 2 hours a day finding 1 to 4 great trades a day.
What is Two Hour Trading?
It’s my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to setup. Key benefits:
High Quality trades with great reward vs risk
Avoid Overtrading and losses from it
Trading to Win vs Trading to Not Lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Alert Leaderboard
(I’ve decided to include a leaderboard so you can see what potential the 2 Hour Trading System has)
The following is based on entry alerts.
July 03 - SPX 5520 2.5 ($2500—> $18000 potential)
July 02 - TSLA 225c 3.5 ($3500—> $8500 potential)
July 02 - SPX 5500c 2.50 ($2500 —> $10000 potential)
July 02 - SPX 5470 Bull Puts 2.50 ($2500 credit collected)
July 01 - closed TSLA Swing $2.65—> $12.00
June 28 - SPX 5500p $6 —> ($600 —> $4800)
June 27 - TSLA 200c 7/5 swing $2.65 —> ($2650—> $4500 potential so far could hit $15000+)
June 26 - TSLA 200c 7/5 swing $2.65 —> ($2650—> $4500 potential so far could hit $15000+)
June 25 - SPX 4470c $1 —> ($1000—> $5000 potential)
June 24 - SPX 4460p $1 —> ($1000—> $12000 potential)
June 20 - NVDA 135p $0.75 —> ($750—> $5000 potential)
June 20 - SPX 4480p $1.50 —> ($1500—> $10000 potential)
June 20 - SPX 4475p $0.50 —> ($500—> $5000 potential)
June 13 - SMCI 820c $10 stops $5 —> ($1000—> $6200 potential)
June 13 - SMCI 900c $2.50 stops $1.25 —> ($2500—> $13000 potential)
June 13 - AVGO 1650p $5 stops $3 —> ($5000—> $22500 potential)
June 12 - SPX puts on SPY 544 reject —> SPX 5220p went from $1 to $12
June 12 - AAPL 220c $0.85 —> ($850 —> $2800 potential)
June 11 - AAPL 200c $1.50 —> ($1500 —> $7500 potential —> $20000 if swung)
June 11 - AAPL 205c 6/21 $1 (swing) —> ($1000 -$6000 —> $15000 if swung)
June 11 - SPX 5360c $2.50 —> ($2500 —> $15000 potential)
June 10 - SPX 5350c $4.20 —> ($4200 —> $16000 potential)
June 6 - NVDA 1220c $12 —> ($1200 —> $2100 potential)
June 5- SPX 5350c 0.30 —> ($3000 —> $45000 potential)
June 5 - META 490c $3 —> ($3000 —> $9500 potential)
June 4 - SPX 5290/95 bear calls $1.80 —> ($1500 credit potential, $1000 if held to close)
June 3 - SPX 5280p $5 —> ($500 —> $4500 potential)
May 22 - SPX 5280p $0.10 —> ($1000 —> $43000 potential)
May 22 - SPX 5300p $0.50 —> ($500 —> $15000 potential)
May 21 - SPX 5320c $0.50 (alert: 0.25 target $2-5) —> ($500 —> $6000 potential)
May 21 - SMCI 1000c $9.25 Swing (entry day before) —> ($925 —> $2100 potential)
May 17 - AMD 170c $0.20 Swing (entry day before) —> ($200 —> $1500 potential)
May 16 - SPX 5300p $0.20 Round 3 —> ($200 —> $2800 potential)
May 16 - SPX 5300p $0.50 Round 2 —> ($500 —> $2600 potential)
May 16 - SPX 5300p $1 Round 1 —> ($1000 —> $5000 potential)
May 15 - SMCI 850c $12 —> ($1200 —> $10000 potential)
May 14 - SPX 5240c $0.50 —> ($500 —> $10600 potential)
May 14 - SPX 5230/5225 bull puts $4 —> ($4000 premium potential)
May 14 - SPX 5245c $0.20 —> ($200 —> $6000 potential)
May 14 - SPX 5240c $0.50 —> ($500 —> $10600 potential)
May 14 - SPX 5230/5225 bull puts $4 —> ($4000 premium potential)
May 13 - SPX 5220/5215 bull puts $2.50 —> ($2500 premium potential)
May 13 - TSLA 170p $1.90 —> ($1900 —> $2890 potential)
May 10 - AMD 162.50p $0.25 (0.25 entry) —> ($250 —> $1600 potential)
May 9 - SPX 5210c $1.25 (1-1.50 entry) —> ($1250 —> $6200 potential)
May 9 - SPX 5220c $0.20 —> ($200 —> $1100 potential)
May 9 - SPX 5200c $3 —> ($3000 —> 15800 potential) (dipped to 2.20)
May 8 - SPX 5200/5205 bear calls $1.20 —> ($1200 premium potential)
May 8 - SPX 5190/5195 bear calls $1.50 —> ($1500 premium potential)
May 8 - SPX 5180c $4 —> ($400—> $1100 potential)
May 7 - SPX 5190c $1 —> ($1000—> $4000 potential)
May 7 - SPX 5190c $1 —> ($1000—> $4000 potential)
May 7 - DIS 105p $0.40 —> ($400—> $1600 potential)
May 6 - SPX 5170c $3 —> ($300—> $1100 potential)
May 6 - SPX 5175c $0.40 —> ($400 —>$7000 potential)
May 3 - SPX 5150/5155 bear calls $1.50 —> ($1500 premium potential)
May 2 - SPX 5020p $7 —> ($700 → $2180 potential)
May 2 - SPX 5070c $1.20 —> ($1500 → $7200 potential)
May 2 - SPX 5070c $3—> ($3000 → $7200 potential)
Apr 30 - SPX 5080p $3 —> ($3000 → $45000 potential)
Apr 23 - SPX 5060/5055 bull puts - Entry $1.75 ($1750 premium potential) drawdown < $200
Apr 22 - SPX 5050c swing - $5.50 → ($5500 → $42000 potential)
Apr 22 - SPX 5000c - $3.20 → ($3200 → $39000 potential)
Apr 22 - SPX 5020c - $0.20 alert, dipped to 0.55, fill at $0.70 → ($700 → $20000 potential)
Apr 19 - SMCI 750p - $1.50 → ($1500 → $38k+ potential)
Apr 19 - NVDA 800p - Entry $0.5 ($500→$40k potential)
Apr 18 - SPX 5050c - Entry $6 ($6000→$16000 potential)
Apr 18 - SPX 5020p - Entry $4 ($5000→$20000 potential)
Apr 16 - SPX 5140/5135 bull puts - Entry $2.50 ($2500 premium potential) drawdown < $300
Apr 12 - SPX 5100p $1. (dipped to 1.30) - Entry $2 ($2500 premium potential)
Apr 11 - SPX 5180/5185 bear calls - Entry $2.50 ($2500 premium potential)
Apr 10 - SPX 5180/5185 bear calls - Entry $2.50 ($2500 premium potential)
Apr 10 - SPX 5170c - Entry 0.50 ($500 → $5000 potential)
Apr 9 - SPX 5185/5180 bull puts - Entry $3 ($3000 premium potential)
Apr 9 - SPX 5205c - Entry $0.50 ($500→ $6000 potential)
Apr 8 - SPX 5225/5230 bear calls - Entry $1.20 ($1200 premium potential)
Apr 8 - SPX 5200/5195 bear puts - Entry $0.10 ($1000→ $8000 potential)
Apr 4 - SPX 5250p - Entry $4 ($4000→ $100k potential)
Apr 4 - SPX 5180p - Entry $1.30 ($1300 > $32k potential)
Apr 3 - SPX 5175/5170 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
Apr 2 - SPX 5175/5170 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
Apr 2 - SPX 5205/5200 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
For live alerts and market commentary click the button below.
Wednesday’s Price Action (Education)
You don't try to make $100,000 ...You don’t start by saying, I’m going to make the biggest most profitable trade and turn $1000 into $100,000 and fix all my bad trades before.
You say, I’m going to plan and execute 1 trade as perfectly as I can today. You do that every single day, and soon you'll have a $100,000 and likely much more!
Please note all times are Eastern/New York regardless of what time zone I happen to be in.
SPY / SPX
In today’s post I’m sharing a little more info. monday/Tuesday established failed break downs. then using process we want to target to levels above. that make 5530-5536 the target. 5536 being the 2 level move from the day before. I had kept a mental note of that.
Having this context is important. Because of my math driven risk/reward trading. This is my Edge!
So we wait one hour and while waiting we anticipate what is going to happen. I’m thinking upside. So I believe 5509 is going to hold. So I place an order to sell credit on SPX 5510 bull puts for $2. And on that dip at 10:30 it filled and then never went red!
Step 2. I do some math. if we get 5530-5536, the 5520c will likely hit $12-16 ($12 not $10 because of the juice on the initial tag of 5530 that comes.). I alerted to THT PRO members I was trying to fill for $2 because that gives me a 5x reward minimum. But the dip wasn’t coming and so I started in at $2.50, I then started adding more when it starts working.
Then there is nothing more to do. Set bracket orders and walk away. How is that for putting in less than 2 hours of work to make over 3x on your money! I had over 15% account growth on Wednesday and spent next to no time trading!
TSLA
Give the gap up and sharp rally, I was looking for a short. once the 10:30 level broke got short and we got a nice flush into vwap. but I wanted gap fill and the pelosi news game me a reason to go for it. After the vwap bounce, I was expecting previous peaks to be testes around 246, so using method 1 entry, I started short and then previous lows broke I added to the position. Was working great. Almost getting to vwap, but then it bounced hard back near where I added — I cut the trade. I don’t need it to work. If I was right it should have broke vwap and continued dumping! It didn’t and the way the buying is going 250-270 is def on deck for TSLA now. 243-245 is the key area I will watch for a break for start a possible short, until then BTFD. or scalp short on rally exhaustion.
NVDA
So I remember seeing some flow for July 12 140c on NVDA for I think 0.60 or 0.80. but it was up there. I noticed they were at 0.11 and so I decided why not load up and yolo it. They hit 0.50 by end of day :). Since I was already in, I didn’t take weeklies.
Review the chart above to see how to read the price action and and suggested process for entry, adds, and taking profit. Notice how it is systematic. We begin takeing profitls at 2 levels away. On the first level. I watch, and once it clears, I raised stops to the first level, but I want to take 50%-70% at the level 2 target.
Please review the options charts and the trade setups.
PS. I’m working on a Levels and Price Action Mastery Course. If you have charts you want me to include or are confused by send them to me! I would love your help getting examples of charts to that are confusing for you to read!
Trade Ideas - Plan for Fri July 5
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
given the gap down in btc, some BTFD may come in on COIN/MSTR so will need to watch for trend/gap fill.
Payroll data came out causing an initial spike in SPY but now it is back where things started so will need to look for reactions to key levels and eiither a failed breakout or failed breakdown move. break of SPY 550.50 could invite some selling/profit taking