SPY consolidates as traders await jobs data. Oil rallies on Mideast tension. Trade ideas for Thursday Oct 3, 2024
Are you planning trades that pay as much as 5 to 20 times your risk? If not, join THT-PRO.
Good morning traders!
I semi botched it yesterday in being too downside biased but correctly waited for pops to get short. Where I screwed up was jumping the gun and choosing the wrong level for credit sells in an effort to maximize gains. That said what I did correctly was sizing and doing more credit sells at a better strike.
I also failed to recognize the failed breakdown reversal off 566 fast enough.
That said, my first short paid 3R and then got stopped flat. Happened twice more where I was nailing the reversal but there was no follow through. At that point I called it a day. I wasn’t satisfied that the 2nd and 3rd short attempts paid 100-200%. I got pissy to be honest. That is my dilemma when I sometimes get 10-20x wins and then I don’t!
I’ll review the screw up (something to learn from) and then give ideas for today.
Wednesday’s Price Action
Overall we consolidated again. We recently had a rejection off highs and broke below 9ma on daily. now we there is consolidation to either reclaim trend to upside or fail and carry us lower as bulls and bears position and fight it out. All I can do is wait for levels and make good risk/reward bets.
Thursday Premarket Action
On Wednesday I said I firmly believe 566 needs to be tested once more before we can go higher. Overnight we got that test. Now it is anyone’s guess. I’m still in bear camp now until 571 is reclaimed with a target of 555-560.
TSLA is dipping this mornig. needs to hold 245 and reclaime 252 to have a shot at 260+ for next week’s robo event.
Accenture (ACN 0.00%↑) announced deal with NVDA.. Interesting pairing. ACN may get some love.
Oil is rallying and near recent highs. I’m watching to see if a breakout comes or a great risk/reward short here at resistance
…..
Let’s review the action in SPY and go over ideas for today.
Join THT PRO to get alerts, real-time commentary, and improve trading habits.
Introduction (for New Readers)
Welcome to my blog on Two Hour Trading—your daily source for market insights and trading opportunities. Here, you’ll find comprehensive market analysis, educational lessons, and trade ideas to help you excel in trading, all while spending less than two hours a day.
What Subscribers Get
Subscribers receive daily market analysis updates, educational content, and up to three trade ideas each morning based on real-life examples and my trading approach.
NOTE: screenshots from chat are from Edge Trade Planner. A platform available to THT PRO members. Join Us for live commentary and planning. Note my goal is to actively trade less than 2 hours a day finding 1 to 4 great trades a day.
What is Two Hour Trading?
Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Q4 Alert Leaderboard
Here's a look at some of the potential gains achieved through our entry alerts:
Oct 01 - SPX 5720p $3 → $12 ($3000 —> $12000 potential)
Oct 02 - SPX 5700p $2.50 → $8.50 ($2500 —> $8500 potential)
Oct 02 - SPX 5720/25 bear calls $2.50 —> 0 (risk $500 to collect $2500 premium)
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
For live alerts and market commentary click the button below.
Trade Recap for Wed Oct 02
GOLD BOLD ITALIC = price action signal
GOLD REGULAR = action to take/taken
GREEN REGULAR = trades I should have taken
SPY / SPX
Missed the recognition of the failed breakdown reversal until we got over 568.
At this point I was focused on waiting for resistance to be established and going short.
The 5720/25 bear calls saved my day. Here is a summary of the bear call plans and what happened by end of day.
SPX 5680/5685 bear calls for $4.50 (10)- risk $500 to make $4500 - lost $500
SPX 5690/5695 bear calls for $3.50 (2)- risk $300 to make $700 - lost $300
SPX 5720/5725 bear calls for $2.50 (10)- risk $500 to make $2500 - made $2150 (sold 50% early to cover losses)
Net green, but I hate being wrong about the move on the day.
I share this as an example of how one can trade using credit selling.
If you notice we kept nail the short spot, but targeting the wrong contracts and not taking profits, fast enough was the issue. I wanted the big payout, not just a 100% gainer.
Super proud of Moe getting patient and focusing on executing well. he nailed a 100% gainer and a 300% gainer on the 5700p shorts off the 569.40 fails!
TSLA
We also scooped TSLA long off the 241 bounce around 243 support and sold majority into the 250-251 push.
I then reloaded some end of day at 248 since vwap held all day and those are being punished in premarket.
If you are busy and want to see my commentary and ideas in real time consider joining THT-PRO.
Education - How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows/failed breakdown reversal
Join at vwap mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Education - Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Let me know in the comments if you have questions or would like to see examples, I’ll share them.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Thursday Oct 03
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
Watching ACN TSLA SPY and XOM today!
(sorry for short idea and less detail today, had problems with power in Peru and wasn’t able to work)
Let’s go over the ideas…