SPY & TSLA retreat, PLTR & NFLX make new highs on Friday. Trade Ideas and key levels for Monday Feb 10, 2025
Knowing when NOT to trade is essential. It allows me to be patient for big payers.
Good morning traders !
On Friday, everything was moving according to plan, with key tech names making new high, SPY pushing on 608 and I was confident 610+ was coming, and luckily and chose to be systematic instead of patient for my target. Literally minutes later, market dumped on consumer sentiment data.
In premarket, on the dip after jobless data came out I was able to scoop 6100c for $4.
My plan was to hold for the targets, but then being systematic, kicked in. I literally can’t help taking profits. and so $12 was 200% gains. I took it and raised stops, because many times, there may be a dip, to reload given recent chop and test of “new highs”. That process for being systematic and taking profits/raising stops saved the profits on this trade.
Consumer sentiment came out and SPY broke multiple support levels and eventually reached 601 after tapping 608!
I was able to scalp puts, but after that action and seeing the chop develop and the levels broken, this action was not part of my plan for the day, and I tarted seeing a fight between 602 and 605. I decided this not the action I want to be a part of . I don’t have an edge, I dont like the juice in the contracts, and I’m not interested in a 100-200% trade. I wanted 500-1000%.
I warned you all that the market environment shifted to favor the market makers and I hope that warning helped you avoid overtrading, and getting chopped up. After reviewing the action on Friday, it turned out that was a good call. I definitely would have got chopped.
Knowing when not to trade is more important then when to trade… Why? because of psychology. I don’t know about you, but once I lose a couple of times, I feel incredibly vengeful. So I have to reign in my emotions. I also sometimes begin to want to do mini scalps to make back some money but the risk/reward isnt great. Losing imho has a 3x negative emotional effect on me than a winning trade has a positive emotional impact. So avoid losses and the losses I don’t care about are the ones where I take a calculated risk with a feeling of “its dumb not to take this trade”.
That is what I will challenge you for this week. Look for a direction you like overall and a target to come, and then identify a level where if the price gets there it’s dumb not to enter for your thesis. And only take those trades. You might get 0 to 3 trades in a day like this, but. track your performance and you should be very positive.
Let’s get into the action and then I’ll talk about my ideas and levels for today.
Friday Highlights
SPY - cleared 606 and push on 608 at the open and then dumped to 601
PLTR - pushed on 116! our swing paid super nice! our 120c swing went to over $3 from 0.50 :)
NFLX - beautiful swing reaching 1027 before failed a dipping back into 1013.50
META - made new ATH at 725 and then pull back to 712 then back to 722
TSLA - rejected 378 and dumped and broke 365 again reaching 361
BABA - pushed to 107s making our 103c swing from 0.25 reach $4+
Overall possible toppy candles formed on Friday, but this market is resilient. we can go either way this week depending on how market reacts to the econ data.
Monday Premarket Highlights
SPY 0.00%↑ - gapping up and testing 604 after the 600.77 close
PLTR 0.00%↑ - gapping up a little.
NFLX 0.00%↑ - gapping up and consolidating 1020-1024 range
BABA 0.00%↑ - gapping up again to 108! 110c for this week should pay
THIS IS THE MARKET TO MAKE MONEY IN!!! TAKE ADVANTAGE WHILE WE HAVE IT.
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Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2025 Q1 Alert Leaderboard
Here's a look at some of the potential gains achieved through our entry alerts:
Intraday Alerts
2024-01-02 SPX 5880p 11 to 40+
2024-01-02 SPX 5820p $2 to 10
2024-01-03 SPX 5930c $2, dipped to $3 and ran to $11
2024-01-06 SPX 5980p $1.70 → $20 ($1700 to $20k potential)
2024-01-07 SPX 5900p $0.50 → $11 ($500 to $11000 potential)
2024-01-07 SPX 5930p $5 → $17.4 ($5000 to $17400 potential)
2024-01-07 SPX 5930p $5 → $40 ($500 to $4000 potential)
2024-01-08 SPX 5800p 1/10 $4 → $10 ($400 to $1000 potential)
2024-01-10 SPX 5800p 1/10 $4 → $10 ($400 to $1000 potential)
2024-01-13 SPX 5820c $5 → $10 ($400 to $1000 potential) **Round 1
2024-01-13 SPX 5820c $2.80 → $16 ($400 to $1000 potential) ** Round 2
2024-01-13 SPX 5820c $4.50 → $16 ($400 to $1000 potential)** Round 3
2024-01-14 SPX 5870c $0.75 → $3.75 ($750 to $3750 potential)
2024-01-14 TSLA 430c $0.75 → $3.75 ($750 to $3750 potential)
2024-01-15 SPX 5950c $9 → $14 ($9000 to $14000 potential)
2024-01-15 GS 610c $2 → $4.50 ($2000 to $4500 potential)
2024-01-15 TSLA 430c $3-4 → $8.20 ($3500 to $8200 potential)
2024-01-15 QQQ 514p $0.8 → $1.82 ($8000 to $18200 potential)
2024-01-16 AAPL 235p $0.7 → $7 ($700 to $7000 potential)
2024-01-16 SPX 5980c $7 → $12 ($700 to $1200 potential)
2024-01-16 SPX 5970c $2 → $5 ($2000 to $5000 potential)
2024-01-16 SPX 5970c $2 → $5 ($2000 to $5000 potential)
2024-01-17 SPX 6000c $8 → $17.2 ($8000 to $17200 potential)
2024-01-17 TSLA 430c $2 → 5.20 ($2000 to $5200 potential)** Round 1
2024-01-17 TSLA 430c $2.30 → 9.9 ($2000 to $9900 potential)** Round 2
2025-01-17 SPX 6000p $0.50 → $5 ($500 to $5000 potential)
2025-01-17 SPX 6020c $0.50 → $0.30 ($500 to $300 stopped.) ** was a combo trade with the 6000p
2025-01-21 SPX 6035c $5→ $15 ($5000 to $15000 potenital.)
2025-01-21 TSLA 440c $2.90→ $5.30 ($2900 to $5300 potenttal.) **dipped to 2.58. alerted 2.50 entry wanted.
2025-01-22 NFLX 950p $3.25→ $10.60 ($3250 to $10600 potenital.)
2025-01-22 SPX 6090p $1→ $5.80 ($1000 to $5800 potenital.) **dipped to 0.65
2025-01-23 SPX 6110c $0.80→ $8.60 ($800 to $8600 potential)
2025-01-24 SPX 6100p $3.30→ $2.30 (stopped) ** round 1 stopped
2025-01-24 SPX 6100p $1.50→ $12 ($1500 to $12000 potential) ** round 2 we banked
2025-01-24 AAPL 222.50p $0.25→ 0.80 ($2500 → $8000 potential)
2025-01-24 AAPL 222.50p $0.25→ 0.80 ($2500 → $8000 potential)
2025-01-24 AMD 123p $0.10 → 1.72 ($1000 → $17200 potential)
2025-01-27 SPX 5950p $9 → 40 ($900 → $4000 potential) ** premarket trade
2025-01-27 SPX 5950p $1.50 → 3.50 ($1500 → $3500 potential)
2025-01-27 NVDA 117p $1.5 → 5.4 ($1500 → $5400 potential)
2025-01-27 AVGO 200p $1.8 → 9.10 ($1800 → $9100 potential)
2025-01-28 SPX 6040c $8.50 → 33.50 ($8500 → $33500 potential)
2025-01-28 SPX 6080c $0.20 → 2.25 ($3500 → $22500 potential)
2025-01-28 SPX 6070c $0.70 → 6.20 ($7000 → $62000 potential) *Round 1
2025-01-28 SPX 6070c $0.90 → 6.20 ($9000 → $62000 potential) *Round 2
2025-01-29 SPX 6000p $4.50 → 12 ($4500 → $12000 potential)
2025-01-29 SPX 6060c $1.5 → 5.20 ($1500 → $5200 potential)
2025-02-03 SPX 6000c $5.5 → 22 ($5500 → $22000 potential)
2025-02-04 SPX 6030c $5.5 → 16.5 ($5500 → $16500 potential)
2025-02-04 SPX 6030c $4.5 → 14.2 ($4500 → $14200 potential)
2025-02-05 SPX 6060c $0.75 → 3.3 ($750 → $3300 potential) * Round 1
2025-02-05 SPX 6060c $0.40 → 2.25 ($600 → $3375 potential) * Round 2 (I filled at 0.40 and 0.20 - Great Risk/Reward!!!)
2025-02-06 SPX 6080c $0.25 → 5 ($2500 → $50000 potential)
2025-02-06 SPX 6075c $0.70 → 7.50 ($7000 → $75000 potential) ** dipped to 0.50, took 50% off at 1.20 to pay for risk
2025-02-07 SPX 6100c $4 → 12 ($4000 → $12000 potential)
Swing Alerts
2024-01-13 TSLA 430c $1.30 → 8.82 ($1300 to $8820 potential) **alerted exits at 6.50 and 8
2024-01-15 GS 610c $2 → 8 ** exit on 1/16
2024-01-15 GS 610 $2 → $16 ** missed reload on dips. exit on 1/17
2025-01-16 SPX 6000c 1/17 $3 → 17.20 ** dipped to $2 on Thursday, exit majority at $12.
2025-01-21 SPX 6070c 1/17 $6.50 → 30+. *exit on 1/22
2025-01-21 AVGO 242.50c 1/24 $2.50 → 6 *exit on 1/22
2025-01-21 ORCL 180c 1/31 $2 → 11 *exit on 1/22
2025-01-22 NVDA 145p 0.75 → $2 *exit on 1/23
2025-01-23 ORCL 190c 1/31 $2 → 3.20 *exit on 1/24
2025-01-27 META 700c 1/31 $7 → ? rare e/r yolo **hope to sell 50% at $14 make it risk free hold into report.
2025-01-27 AVGO 225c 1/31 $0.25 → 2.50 **reached on 1/30 but I didn’t sell and got stopped at 1.50 and reloaded at 0.35-0.40
2025-02-04 AAPL 225p 2/7 $0.59 → 1.1 ** no bids
2025-02-04 NFLX 1000c 2/7 $4.5 → ? ** Locked some in at $10 to make it free
2025-02-05 TSLA 375p 2/7 $3.5 → 10.50 ** nailed it!! exit on 2/6
2025-02-06 SPX 6150 2/7 $1 avg → 0 ** yolo failed
2025-02-06 BABA 103c 2/7 $0.25 → 4.30
2025-02-06 PLTR 120c 2/14 $0.50 → 3 ** locked 50% for 500% gains and risk free. Goal is $5-10.
Credit Sell Alerts
2024-01-14 SPX 5800/5795 bull puts for 1.50-2.50. $2000 credit potential using 10 contracts and $1000 risk.
2024-01-15 SPX 5950/5955 bear calls for $2→0. $2000-4200 credit potential. Round 1 dipped to 0.75. Round 2 ran to $4.20 and then dropped to 0.
2024-01-16 SPX 5950/5955 bear calls for $2→0. $2000-3000 credit potential. Round 1 dipped to 0.75. Round 2 ran to $3 and then dropped to 0. ** not a typo, same play paid.
2024-01-16 SPX 6020/6025 bear calls for 3.50 ** DID NOT FILL. (the 1.50 at time of alert went to 0)
2024-01-21 SPX 6035/6050 bear calls for 2 stopped 2.50
2024-01-27 SPX 5950/5945 bull puts for 2.50 → 0 **premarket
2024-01-30 SPX 6060/6055 bull puts for 4.50 → 0
2024-02-04 SPX 6050/6055 bear call for 1.20-1.50 → 0
2024-02-05 SPX 6030/6035 bear call for 2.50→3 ** lost 0.50
2024-02-06 SPX 6070/6065 bull puts for 4.20→0
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
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Trade Recap for Friday Feb 7
GOLD BOLD ITALIC = price action signal
WHITE REGULAR = action to take/taken
GREEN REGULAR = trades I should have taken
SPY / SPX
I was positioned for upside from premarket and got stopped after taking 200% gains.
We were able to get short on the 605 back test after it broke, and were then rewarded with a fast drop into 602. After that things got really choppy and I didn’t feel like I had an edge. I wasn’t sure if we would recover and I wasn’t convinced we would break 601.
With contracts juiced, and market being choppy I chose to keep my money vs take a bad risk trade.
AVOID THIS:
I want to avoid trading in this kind of action.. Look at the range and chop for 2 hours from 11 to 1. I would have gotten chopped up in that!
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Education - How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows/failed breakdown reversal
Join at vwap mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Education - Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Let me know in the comments if you have questions or would like to see examples, I’ll share them.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Mon Feb 10
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
Market is gapping up this morning, the question is do we get a second day of selling or not? Some tech names are holding their recent rally gains.
Market will be watching CPI and PPI numbers that come out on Wed/Thursday.
We may be in for more consolidation and chop with some range tests until then.