Should we take today off? Trade ideas for Wed Nov 27, 2024
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Good morning traders!
It’s important to know when to trade as much as it when to trade. Today and Friday often around Thanksgiving are often not worth the effort to trade. I’m not saying there wont be an opportunity to nail something, but lets say the chances are 40% vs 80%.. So the deck is stacked against us imho vs the time need to plan and monitor.
Unless I see a fast 2 level move to a key level with potential for a reversal, I will likely stay out. Maybe just do a credit sell for premium collection.
Tuesday Price Action
SPY - Given the dip to 595 the day before after a gap up and fill, it dipped during first hour and then started a slow painful grind to 600+. my target was 601.70 we got to 601.33. Nice scoops on SPX 6020c for 0.30-0.50 that ran to $5!
MSTR - BOOM!!!! DID exactly what I wanted. popped to 400 and failed dumping to 338. I was targeting 320, so was off by $18 but we still got $55 of a $62 move!
SMCI - We were expecting a dump and dump we got right to the 34 level and then flipped long targeting 35.50-36 which we got!
Wednesday Premarket Action
SPY - overnight it popped and hit that 601.70 target and then dipped down to 599.50 this morning. overall volume and range seems anemic.
MSTR - nice squeeze and bounce. needed to stay under 366 for downside continuation. Likely choppy from here as bull and bears fight it out. IF btc goes under 85k, I think MSTR can dump under 300.
SMCI - squeezed into 36.50 Friday ah and test 36 in premarket today.
SHOP - tested 114 and now pulling back. likely needs to base before more upside..
MSTR - gapping up to 380s from 350. not any surprise here. 370 likely key inflection point.
NVDA - tested 135 looks weak overall.
Let’s review the trade signals in SPY and go over ideas for today.
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Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Q4 Alert Leaderboard
Here's a look at some of the potential gains achieved through our entry alerts:
Nov 22 - SCMI swing update $28c 0.60 →$6.40 ($600→6400 potential)
Nov 22 - SPX5960/55 bull puts $4.50, $3.50 → collect 4500 and 3500 premium risk 2k to make 8k.
Nov 21 - MSTR 410p $10→ 50
Nov 21 - SMCI swing update $28c 0.60 → 2.80!
Nov 20 - SPX 5900c $0.50 (dipped to 0.70 after alert) target $16.1 + went 17+ ($800 → $17200 potential)
Nov 20 - SPX 5860/55 bull puts (collect $2500 premium)
Nov 20 - SPX 5890/85 bull puts (collect $4500 premium on $500 risk)
Nov 20 - SPX 5900c $0.50 (dipped to 0.70 after alert) target $16.1 + went 17+ ($800 → $17200 potential)
Nov 19 - /ES 5860 scoop now at 5920+
Nov 19 - SPX 5920c 1.25 → 8 ($1250 → 8000 potential)
Nov 19 - SPX 5880c $3 (only dipped to 5.50) target $30+ went 40+
Nov 14- SPX 5870/65 bull puts 4500 credit → 0 ($4500 credit premium potential)
Nov 14- SPX 5870c 1.20 → 5.50 ($1250 → 5500 potential)
Nov 14- SPX 5870p 5.50 → 18.60 ($5500 → 18600 potential)
Nov 14 - TSLA 350c Jan 25 $16.50 → 22.50 → ? swing
Nov 13- SPX 6000c 0.35 → 3.7 ($350 → 3700 potential)
Nov 13 - SPX 6000c 0.35→ 2.2 ($350 → 2200 potential)
Nov 13 - SPX 6000p 2.5 → 18.40 ($2500 → $18400 potential)
Nov 14 - SHOP 120c 12/20 (swing) $2 → $4 → ? could hit 20-30 by next month.
Nov 12- SPX 5990c 0.80 → 11 ($800 → 11000 potential)
Nov 12- SPX 5980/5975 bull puts 4.2→0 (collect $4200 premium risk 800)!
Nov 11 - SPX 6010/6015 bear calls 3 → 0 (collect $3000 premium)
Nov 11 - SPX 6000/5995 bull puts 2.7 → 0 (collect $2700 premium)
Nov 11 - SPX 6000p 1.50 (dipped to 1.90) 2.50 → 14 ($2500 → $14000 potential)
Nov 11 - SPX 6000c $1 → 2.50 ($1000 → 2500 potential)
Nov 8 - SPX 6000/6005 bear calls 3.2 → 0 (collect $3200 premium)
Nov 8 - TSLA 300c 2.25 → 28 ($2250 → $28000)
Nov 7 - TSLA 300c 2.2 → 5 ($2200 → $5000)
Nov 7 - SPX 5970c $2.50 → 6 ($2500 → $6000)
Nov 6 - SPX 5940c $0.20 → $2 ($200 → $2000 potential) in 3min
Nov 6 - SPX 5930c $2 → 8 ($2000 - $8000 potential) in 10min
Nov 6 - SPX 5920c 4.25 → 17.10 ($4250 → $17100 potential) in 2hr
Nov 6 - SPX 5880p 7 stops 6 → 13.50 ($7000 → $13500 potential) 5R in 30min
Nov 5 - SPX 5775c 1.50 → $10 ($1500 → $10000 potential)
Nov 5 - SPX 5765p 4 → $9 ($4000 → $9000 potential)
Nov 5 - /ES long $5825 in ah → $5954 ($6450/contract potential)
Nov 4 - TSLA 250c 4.50 → 8 ($4500 → $8000 potential)
Nov 4 - SPX 5830c 0.30 → 0.85 ($3000 → $8500 potential)
Nov 1 - SPX 5770c 4.50 → 12 ($4500 → $12000 potential)
Nov 1 - SPX 5740p 2.50 → 16 ($2500 → $16000 potential)
Oct 31 - SPX 5830p 3.50 → 30 ($3500 → $30000 potential)
Oct 31 - SPX 5700p 1.50 → 5 ($1500 → 5000 potential)
Oct 31 - SPX 5830c 3.3 → 8.50 ($3300 → 8500 potential)
Oct 30 - SPX 5860c 0.80 → 3.80 ($800 → 3800 potential)
Oct 30 - SPX 5830p 1.75 → 17.50 ($1750 → 17500 potential)
Oct 29 - MSTR 270c $.6.50 stops 5.50 → 9.8 ($6500 → $9800 potential) 3R trade
Oct 29 - SPY 5840c $1.00 (dipped 1.80) → $8.80 ($1800 → $8800 potenital)
Oct 29 - SPY 5850c $1.00 → $2.20 ($1000 → $2200 potenital)
Oct 28 - SPY 5840c $0.50 → $1.80 ($500 → $1800 potenital)
Oct 25 - QQQ 499p $0.80 → $4.50 ($800 → $4500 potential)
Oct 25 - TSLA 265c $1.25 → $4.65 ($1250 → 4650 potential)
Oct 24 - SPX 5770p $2 → $6.2 ($2000 → $6200 potential)
Oct 24 - SPX 5810c $0.20 → $2.05 ($2000 → $20500 potential)
Oct 24 - SPX 5810/5805 Bull puts for $3.20 went to -> 0.12 (collect 90%+ premium)
Oct 23 - SPX 5790p $3 → $27.80 ($3000 → $27800 potential)
Oct 23 - SPX 5830c $6 → 11.20 5R ($6000 → $11000 potential)
Oct 23 - TSM 205c 0.55 → 1.55 ($550 → 1555 potential)
Oct 23 - MSTR 217.5c $3 → ? 20+ (swing). sold 50% at 6 for 100% gain!
Oct 23 -NFLX 750p $3.50 → 9.20 ($3500 → $9200 potential)
Oct 22 - SPX 5850c $3 (dipped to 1) ran to $14.80 on Round 1 ($3000 → $14800 potential)
Oct 22 - SPX 5850c $3 ran to $11 on Round 2 ($3000 → $11000 potential)
Oct 21 - SPX 5850c $1.50 ran to $5.6 on Round 1 ($1500 → $5600 potential)
Oct 21 - SPX 5850c $0.45 ran to $4.8 on Round 2 ($450 → $4800 potential)
Oct 21 - NFLX 775c $4 ran to $9.52 ($4000 → $9520 potential)
Oct 18- MSTR 210c $1 → $8.50 ($1000 —> $8500 potential)
Oct 17 - NFLX 705 commons buy after earning earnings. Exit 761. $56 Dollars!
Oct 17- SPX 5870c $1.80 → $7 ($1800 —> $7000 potential)
Oct 15- SPX 5800p $2.20 → $5.50 ($2200 —> $5500 potential)
Oct 15 - SMCI 50c $0.60→ $1.85 ($600 —> $1850 potential)
Oct 15 - SPX 5830c $4 → $18 ($4000 —> $18000 potential)
Oct 14 - SPX 5870c $0.45 → $4.4 ($450 —> $4400 potential)
Oct 14 - MSTR 210p 4.50 →$13.7 ($4500 → 13700 potential)
Oct 14 - PDD 135p(swing) 1.50 → $12 ($1500 → $12000 potential)
Oct 11 - SPX 5810c $5 → $14 ($5000 —> $14000 potential)
Oct 11 - SPX 5805p $1 → $13.50 ($1000 —> $13500 potential)
Oct 10 - SPX 5800c $2 → $6 ($2000 —> $6000 potential)
Oct 10 - SPX 5750p $0.50 → $3.40 ($500 —> $3400 potential)
Oct 09 - SPX 5775c $2.5 (thanks JY!) → $22 ($2500 —> $22000 potential)
Oct 09 - SPX 5800c $0.5 (dipped 0.20) → $2.45 ($500 —> $2450 potential)
Oct 09 - SPX 5790c $1 (dipped 0.70) → $8.65 ($1000 —> $8650 potential)
Oct 09 - SPX 5790c Round 2 $3.5 → $7.5 ($3500 —> $7500 potential)
Oct 08 - SPX 5750c $1 (dipped 0.70) → $2.30 ($1000 —> $8400 potential)
Oct 08 - SPX 5750c $2 (dipped 1.70) → $8.40 ($2000 —> $8400 potential)
Oct 08 - MSFT 415c $3 risk 0.20 —> 4.10 ($3000 → $4100) 5R!
Oct 07 - SPX 5720c $1 (dipped 1.20) → $3.30 ($1200 —> $3300 potential)
Oct 07 - SPX 5690p $1.50 (dipped 1.55) → $10.50 ($1550 —> $10500 potential)
Oct 07 - PDD 145p $2.35 (swing) → 5
Oct 04 - SPX 5700p $5 → $15.50 ($5000 —> $15500 potential)
Oct 04 - SPX 5730c $6 → $23.90 ($6000 —> $23900 potential)
Oct 04 - SPX 5740c $1.50 → $14 ($1500 —> $14000 potential)
Oct 04 - SPX 5750c $1 → $5 ($1000 —> $5000 potential)
Oct 04 - OXY 55c $0.35 → $0.80 ($3500 —> $8000 potential)
Oct 04 - META 595c $0.12 → 1.90 ($1200 —> $19000 potential)
Oct 03 - SPX 5655p $1 → $5 ($1000 —> $5000 potential)
Oct 03 - SPX 5690c $2 → $14.20($2000 → $14200 potential)
Oct 03 - SPX 5695c $1-2 → $9.80 ($1500 → $9800 potential)
Oct 03 - NVDA 125c $0.55 (swing)
Oct 03 - XOM 123c $0.22 (swing)
Oct 03 - OXY 55c $0.33 (swing)
Oct 03 - PDD 155c $1.20 (swing)
Oct 03 - SPX 5720/25 bear calls $2 —> 0 (risk $500 to collect $2000 premium)
Oct 02 - SPX 5700p $2.50 → $8.50 ($2500 —> $8500 potential)
Oct 02 - SPX 5720/25 bear calls $2.50 —> 0 (risk $500 to collect $2500 premium)
Oct 01 - SPX 5720p $3 → $12 ($3000 —> $12000 potential)
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
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Trade Recap for Tuesday Nov 24
GOLD BOLD ITALIC = price action signal
WHITE REGULAR = action to take/taken
GREEN REGULAR = trades I should have taken
SPY / SPX
Not much to do, I was doing bear calls that failed, but I need to remind myself to also do bull puts! the problem was the premium puts was nada.
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Education - How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows/failed breakdown reversal
Join at vwap mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Education - Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Let me know in the comments if you have questions or would like to see examples, I’ll share them.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Wed Nov 27
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
Overall I plan to do nothing today. Maybe a credit sell after first hour and let premium bleed out. That said, sometimes these low volume days let market makers push the market around.
TODAY IS A GREAT DAY TO TAKE OFF AND START HOLIDAY WEEKEND. I WILL NOT BE PUBLISHING OR TRADING ON FRIDAY NOV 29.
If nothing develops in first 2 hours I will call it day.