More lows in TSLA, BABA continues rally. SPY consolidates. Trade Ideas and key levels for Tue Feb 11, 2025

Knowing when NOT to trade is essential. It allows me to be patient for big payers.

Good morning traders !

I’m super glad I decided to avoid trading in SPX yesterday after seeing the initial action. There just wasn’t enough volume and range, and so I chose to do credit sells in the afternoon and made one small yolo that went almost 100% and then died. This fits back into the theme. Super important to know when to trade and when not to.

The biggest themes I would say is that the market is now waiting for headlines to trigger moves. There are a few themes though. BABA continues its grind and NVDA ripped to 135 but may have exhausted after 6 green days. Finally AAPL struggled with 232.50 last week and broke under 230 yesterday and back into 226s this morning.

The big headline that has my attention today is Musk leading an investor group for hostile takeover of OpenAI this resulted in TSLA breaking 360 again and fluhing sub 350. 360 was a multiyear peak that triggered a breakout run last year.

I wrote about it here:

So where is the opportunity today while we wait for CPI and PPI numbers…. I’ll get into that in a minute. Lets review yesterday’s and this morning’s price action.

Monday Highlights

SPY - consolidated all day between 603 and 605.50

PLTR - dipped to 110 on open and quickly ran back to 116/117

NFLX - fast dip on 1016 and ran to 1032. Interesting enough, Playbook scanner identified a short off 1030.

TSLA - dipped 350, backtested 363 and failed, making new lows after the close.

BABA - reached 111+ like we thought. now the question is will there be a dip or not to reload before more upside

NVDA - has ha had 6 green days, but may have stalled at 135.

Monday Premarket Highlights

SPY 0.00%↑ - gapping down under yesterday’s support.

PLTR 0.00%↑ - tested 117.50 overnight and is consolidating around the close.

NFLX 0.00%↑ - gapping down and back to consolidating 1020-1024 range

BABA 0.00%↑ - gapping down back to 108.

TSLA 0.00%↑ - gapping down under 350. Let’s see if selling accelerated after the OpenAI bid, or if get a gap down reversal.

NVDA 0.00%↑ - gapping down and news out that OpenAI is working with TSM to make a custom chip. Implies competition and is NVDA losing its edge/moat? Note. NVDA reports this month.

THIS IS THE MARKET TO MAKE MONEY IN!!! TAKE ADVANTAGE WHILE WE HAVE IT.

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• Stacking the deck in your favor

2025 Q1 Alert Leaderboard

Here's a look at some of the potential gains achieved through our entry alerts:

Intraday Alerts

• 2024-01-02 SPX 5880p 11 to 40+

• 2024-01-02 SPX 5820p $2 to 10

• 2024-01-03 SPX 5930c $2, dipped to $3 and ran to $11

• 2024-01-06 SPX 5980p $1.70 → $20 ($1700 to $20k potential)

• 2024-01-07 SPX 5900p $0.50 → $11 ($500 to $11000 potential)

• 2024-01-07 SPX 5930p $5 → $17.4 ($5000 to $17400 potential)

• 2024-01-07 SPX 5930p $5 → $40 ($500 to $4000 potential)

• 2024-01-08 SPX 5800p 1/10 $4 → $10 ($400 to $1000 potential)

• 2024-01-10 SPX 5800p 1/10 $4 → $10 ($400 to $1000 potential)

• 2024-01-13 SPX 5820c $5 → $10 ($400 to $1000 potential) **Round 1

• 2024-01-13 SPX 5820c $2.80 → $16 ($400 to $1000 potential) ** Round 2

• 2024-01-13 SPX 5820c $4.50 → $16 ($400 to $1000 potential)** Round 3

• 2024-01-14 SPX 5870c $0.75 → $3.75 ($750 to $3750 potential)

• 2024-01-14 TSLA 430c $0.75 → $3.75 ($750 to $3750 potential)

• 2024-01-15 SPX 5950c $9 → $14 ($9000 to $14000 potential)

• 2024-01-15 GS 610c $2 → $4.50 ($2000 to $4500 potential)

• 2024-01-15 TSLA 430c $3-4 → $8.20 ($3500 to $8200 potential)

• 2024-01-15 QQQ 514p $0.8 → $1.82 ($8000 to $18200 potential)

• 2024-01-16 AAPL 235p $0.7 → $7 ($700 to $7000 potential)

• 2024-01-16 SPX 5980c $7 → $12 ($700 to $1200 potential)

• 2024-01-16 SPX 5970c $2 → $5 ($2000 to $5000 potential)

• 2024-01-16 SPX 5970c $2 → $5 ($2000 to $5000 potential)

• 2024-01-17 SPX 6000c $8 → $17.2 ($8000 to $17200 potential)

• 2024-01-17 TSLA 430c $2 → 5.20 ($2000 to $5200 potential)** Round 1

• 2024-01-17 TSLA 430c $2.30 → 9.9 ($2000 to $9900 potential)** Round 2

• 2025-01-17 SPX 6000p $0.50 → $5 ($500 to $5000 potential)

• 2025-01-17 SPX 6020c $0.50 → $0.30 ($500 to $300 stopped.) ** was a combo trade with the 6000p

• 2025-01-21 SPX 6035c $5→ $15 ($5000 to $15000 potenital.)

• 2025-01-21 TSLA 440c $2.90→ $5.30 ($2900 to $5300 potenttal.) **dipped to 2.58. alerted 2.50 entry wanted.

• 2025-01-22 NFLX 950p $3.25→ $10.60 ($3250 to $10600 potenital.)

• 2025-01-22 SPX 6090p $1→ $5.80 ($1000 to $5800 potenital.) **dipped to 0.65

• 2025-01-23 SPX 6110c $0.80→ $8.60 ($800 to $8600 potential)

• 2025-01-24 SPX 6100p $3.30→ $2.30 (stopped) ** round 1 stopped

• 2025-01-24 SPX 6100p $1.50→ $12 ($1500 to $12000 potential) ** round 2 we banked

• 2025-01-24 AAPL 222.50p $0.25→ 0.80 ($2500 → $8000 potential)

• 2025-01-24 AAPL 222.50p $0.25→ 0.80 ($2500 → $8000 potential)

• 2025-01-24 AMD 123p $0.10 → 1.72 ($1000 → $17200 potential)

• 2025-01-27 SPX 5950p $9 → 40 ($900 → $4000 potential) ** premarket trade

• 2025-01-27 SPX 5950p $1.50 → 3.50 ($1500 → $3500 potential)

• 2025-01-27 NVDA 117p $1.5 → 5.4 ($1500 → $5400 potential)

• 2025-01-27 AVGO 200p $1.8 → 9.10 ($1800 → $9100 potential)

• 2025-01-28 SPX 6040c $8.50 → 33.50 ($8500 → $33500 potential)

• 2025-01-28 SPX 6080c $0.20 → 2.25 ($3500 → $22500 potential)

• 2025-01-28 SPX 6070c $0.70 → 6.20 ($7000 → $62000 potential) *Round 1

• 2025-01-28 SPX 6070c $0.90 → 6.20 ($9000 → $62000 potential) *Round 2

• 2025-01-29 SPX 6000p $4.50 → 12 ($4500 → $12000 potential)

• 2025-01-29 SPX 6060c $1.5 → 5.20 ($1500 → $5200 potential)

• 2025-02-03 SPX 6000c $5.5 → 22 ($5500 → $22000 potential)

• 2025-02-04 SPX 6030c $5.5 → 16.5 ($5500 → $16500 potential)

• 2025-02-04 SPX 6030c $4.5 → 14.2 ($4500 → $14200 potential)

• 2025-02-05 SPX 6060c $0.75 → 3.3 ($750 → $3300 potential) * Round 1

• 2025-02-05 SPX 6060c $0.40 → 2.25 ($600 → $3375 potential) * Round 2 (I filled at 0.40 and 0.20 - Great Risk/Reward!!!)

• 2025-02-06 SPX 6080c $0.25 → 5 ($2500 → $50000 potential)

• 2025-02-06 SPX 6075c $0.70 → 7.50 ($7000 → $75000 potential) ** dipped to 0.50, took 50% off at 1.20 to pay for risk

• 2025-02-07 SPX 6100c $4 → 12 ($4000 → $12000 potential)

Swing Alerts

• 2024-01-13 TSLA 430c $1.30 → 8.82 ($1300 to $8820 potential) **alerted exits at 6.50 and 8

• 2024-01-15 GS 610c $2 → 8 ** exit on 1/16

• 2024-01-15 GS 610 $2 → $16 ** missed reload on dips. exit on 1/17

• 2025-01-16 SPX 6000c 1/17 $3 → 17.20 ** dipped to $2 on Thursday, exit majority at $12.

• 2025-01-21 SPX 6070c 1/17 $6.50 → 30+. *exit on 1/22

• 2025-01-21 AVGO 242.50c 1/24 $2.50 → 6 *exit on 1/22

• 2025-01-21 ORCL 180c 1/31 $2 → 11 *exit on 1/22

• 2025-01-22 NVDA 145p 0.75 → $2 *exit on 1/23

• 2025-01-23 ORCL 190c 1/31 $2 → 3.20 *exit on 1/24

• 2025-01-27 META 700c 1/31 $7 → ? rare e/r yolo **hope to sell 50% at $14 make it risk free hold into report.

• 2025-01-27 AVGO 225c 1/31 $0.25 → 2.50 **reached on 1/30 but I didn’t sell and got stopped at 1.50 and reloaded at 0.35-0.40

• 2025-02-04 AAPL 225p 2/7 $0.59 → 1.1 ** no bids

• 2025-02-04 NFLX 1000c 2/7 $4.5 → ? ** Locked some in at $10 to make it free

• 2025-02-05 TSLA 375p 2/7 $3.5 → 10.50 ** nailed it!! exit on 2/6

• 2025-02-06 SPX 6150 2/7 $1 avg → 0 ** yolo failed

• 2025-02-06 BABA 103c 2/7 $0.25 → 4.30

• 2025-02-06 PLTR 120c 2/14 $0.50 → 3 ** locked 50% for 500% gains and risk free. Goal is $5-10.

• 2025-02-10 AAPL 235c 2/14 $0.35 → ? locked 80%@1.80 on 2/11

• 2025-02-10 TSLA 330p 2/14 $2.10 → ? locked 80%@ 5.50 on 2/11

Credit Sell Alerts

• 2024-01-14 SPX 5800/5795 bull puts for 1.50-2.50. $2000 credit potential using 10 contracts and $1000 risk.

• 2024-01-15 SPX 5950/5955 bear calls for $2→0. $2000-4200 credit potential. Round 1 dipped to 0.75. Round 2 ran to $4.20 and then dropped to 0.

• 2024-01-16 SPX 5950/5955 bear calls for $2→0. $2000-3000 credit potential. Round 1 dipped to 0.75. Round 2 ran to $3 and then dropped to 0. ** not a typo, same play paid.

• 2024-01-16 SPX 6020/6025 bear calls for 3.50 ** DID NOT FILL. (the 1.50 at time of alert went to 0)

• 2024-01-21 SPX 6035/6050 bear calls for 2 stopped 2.50

• 2024-01-27 SPX 5950/5945 bull puts for 2.50 → 0 **premarket

• 2024-01-30 SPX 6060/6055 bull puts for 4.50 → 0

• 2024-02-04 SPX 6050/6055 bear call for 1.20-1.50 → 0

• 2024-02-05 SPX 6030/6035 bear call for 2.50→3 ** lost 0.50

• 2024-02-06 SPX 6070/6065 bull puts for 4.20→0

• 2024-02-10 SPX 6070/6065 bear calls for 2.50→0

More alerts history…

**Past Performance is not indicative of future results

For live alerts and market commentary click the button below.

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Trade Recap for Monday Feb 10

GOLD BOLD ITALIC = price action signal

WHITE REGULAR = action to take/taken

GREEN REGULAR = trades I should have taken

SPY / SPX

Overall not worth the effort. Couldn’t size in and barely got a 100% payer move.

Remember NOT everyday will give great trades. (it tough because we get use to those big payer days and then hard to back to smalls)

If you are busy and want to see my commentary and ideas in real time consider joining THT-PRO.

Education - How to Join a Strong Trend

The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:

All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma

Multi-day grinder:

• Join either on support test of morning lows/failed breakdown reversal

• Join at vwap mid day or end of day

Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!

Education - Systematic Profit Taking

How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.

I then repeat the same process on the reload.

Let me know in the comments if you have questions or would like to see examples, I’ll share them.

Trade Ideas - Plan for Tue Feb 11

Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.

Ideas

Market appears to be acting a bit weak this morning ahead of CPI tomorrow.

We may be in for more consolidation and chop with some range tests until then for now have a small short bias of resistance fails.