Monday was wild after Powell kicked off an amazing afternoon session? Trade ideas for Tuesday Oct 1, 2024
Monday was wild after Powell kicked off an amazing afternoon session? Trade ideas for Tuesday Oct 1, 2024
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I will be traveling today. Trading for first 2 hours and then headed to airport. Going to Peru next.
Good morning traders!
I’m so proud of the members at THT PRO! Hat tip to JY! He alerted his trade plan using Edge risk based take profit strategy just before the turn!
After the close, I reviewed his plan, and told him to see what the sell targets for level based moves were. T2 was $27!!!
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Sorry for the digression, but just super excited by the progress I see in the community as well as in Edge’s development.
Playbook Scanner is in development. But check out the scanner results from yesterday.
Let’s start:
SMCI bear - 435.51 dropped to 415 within 2 hours
PDD bull - made low of 133.30 and pushed 136 an hour later
SPY bear - 572.15 dropped to 468.50 2 hours later
SPY bull - Ran to 474 within 2 hours!
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Monday’s Price Action
I’m not going to mince words. Yesterday was tough. I kept nailing entries, but there wasn’t follow through. I and a number of members were getting frustated and having a mixture of green and red trades. Why? We all knew what was going to happen, but the timing of when it was going to happen was the problem. After taking the cuts, we waited for Powell to speak at 1:55pm. After that it was game on!
SPX 5700p rocketed 8-10 sell target from 0.35. (my entires were 0.80, 1.50, and 2.5)
SPX 5730p rocketed to $28 from 3.5. My average was $5 and final exit/stop hit at 23.70.
Basically market chopped around while waiting for Powell. They then flushed it under 569 support. BUT then the unthinkable happened. 569 reclaimed which openned the door to a failed breakdown reversal setup.
As we pushed and test 571,, once 571.50 cleared, the market makers trapped the 569 break shorts AND the 571 shorts. Guess what happens when high of day and 572.50 cleared. Short cover and we get a massive squeeze right to the 474 level in the last hour proving 30-100x payouts from the moment I mentioned that a possible squeeze can come.
I took 5745c for $1. But I should have taken a breath to plan better. I should have been piling into 5755c. 5755c went 120x! while 5745c went 20x+
How was this for a prediction? Wrote this in yesterday’s idea section.
Tuesday Premarket Action
SPY back tested 572.50 overnight and has been testing 574. The piece appear to be in place for new highs to come this week. That said the move yesterday into 574 felt more like a squeeze than natural buying. That means that we could see failed breakout on 574 and dip back into 570-572 for more consolidation if market isn’t read to continue trend today/tomorrow.
…..
Let’s review the action in SPY and go over ideas for today.
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Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Alert Leaderboard
Here's a look at some of the potential gains achieved through our entry alerts:
Sep 30 - SPX 5730p $0.80 → $9.50 ($800 —> $9500 potential)
Sep 30 - SPX 5745c $1 → $19 ($1000 —> $19000 potential)
Sep 27 - SPX 5740p $2.50 → $14 ($2500 —> $14000 potential)
Sep 27 - TSLA 260c $0.25 → $0.80 ($250 —> $800 potential)
Sep 26 - SPX 5730p $2 → $8 ($2000 —> $8000 potential)
Sep 26 - SPX 5730p $2.30 → $12 ($2300 —> 12000 potential)
Sep 25 - SPX 5760c $1.50 (swing) → ? Currently $16 ($1500 —> $17000 potential) (Interactive Brokers lets you trade SPX options overnight)
Sep 25 - SPX 5730c $1 —> 4.10 ($1000 —> $4100 potential)
Sep 25 - SPX 5720p $3 —> 10.63 ($3000 → $10630 potential)
Sep 24/25 - PDD 110c 1.25 (swing) —> 14 ($1250→ $14000 potential)
Sep 24 - PDD 110c 1.25 —> 4.50 ($1250→ $4500 potential)
Sep 24 - SPX 5720c 4.20 —> 15 ($4200→ $16800 potential)
Sep 20 - CRWD 295c 0.25 —> 5 ($2500→ $50000 potential)
Sep 19 - SPX 5730/35 bear calls $4 —> 0 ($collect $4000 premium risking $500)
Sep 18 - SPX 5650/55 bear calls $4.50 —> 0 ($collect $4500 premium risking $500)
Sep 18 - SPX 5670/75 bear calls $1.50 —> 0 ($collect $1500 premium risking $500)
Sep 17 - SPX 5630p $3.50 —> 20 ($3500 → $20000 potential)
Sep 16 - SPX 5600p $3 → 10.50 ( $3000 → $10500 potential )
Sep 11 - SPX 5500c $0.50 → 60 ( $1000 → $120000 potential )
Sep 11 - SPX 5450c $4.5 → 110 ( $4500 → $110000 potential )
Sep 11 - SPX 5400p $2.75 → 14 ( $2750 → $14000 potential )
Sep 10 - SPX 5450p $3.50 → 18 ( $3500 → $18000 potential )
Sep 09 - SPX 5450p $2.35 → 8 ( $2350 → $8000 potential )
Sep 09 - NVDA 102p $1.35 → 2.15 ( $1350 → $2100 potential )
Sep 06 - SPX 5430p $3 → 29.60 ( $3000 → $29600 potential )
Sep 06 - SPX 5430p $8 → 29.60 ( $8000 → $29600 potential )
Sep 06 - SPX 5450c 0.30 → 1.70 ( $3000 → $17000 potential )
Sep 06 - TSLA 220p 0.60 → 7 ( $600 → $7000 potential )
Sep 06 - NVDA 102p 0.20 —> 1.50 ( $2000 → $15000 potential )
Sep 05 - TSLA 230c 2.30 → 7 ( $2300 → $7000 potential )
Sep 05 - SPX 5620p 6 → 37 ( $6000 → $37000 potential )
Sep 05 - SPX 5480p 0.5 (dipped to 0.22) → 5.20 ( $1000 → $10000 potential )
Sep 04 - SPX 5630p 6 → 26 ( $6000 → $26000 potential )
Sep 03 - SPX 5630p 0.20 (dipped to 0.75) ( $750 → $19000 potential )
Sep 03 - SPX 5555p 4.50 → 46 ( $4500 → $46000 potential )
Sep 03 - NVDA 110p 1.4 —> 4.4 (1400 → 4400 potenial)
Sep 03 - UVXY 25c 1.2 —> 5.4 ( $1200 → $5400 potential)
Aug 30 - SPX 5640c 0.20 (dipped to 0.30) —> 14 ($3000 → $140000 potential)
Aug 29 - SPX 5650c 3.50 —> 6 ($3500 → $6500 potential)
Aug 29 - MSFT 420c 1.30 —> 4 ($1300 → $4000 potential)
Aug 28 - SPX 5560p 1 —> 8.70 ($1000 → $8700 potential)
Aug 28 - SPX 5560p 1 —> 8.70 ($1000 → $8700 potential)
Aug 28 - SPX 5580p 1.75 —> 21 ($1750 → $21000 potential)
Aug 27-28 - PDD 95p 0.75 → $7 ($750 → $7000 potential) *swing trade
Aug 27 - SPX 5620c 4.50 → $19 ($4500 → $19500 potential)
Aug 27 - PDD 95p 0.75 → $1.66 ($750 → $1660 potential) *swing still in play
Aug 26 - PDD 100P $1.50 → $6.50 ($1500 → $6500 potential)
Aug 23 - SPX 5600p $7 → 38 ($7000 → $38000 potential)
Aug 22 - SPX 5600p $7 → 38 ($7000 → $38000 potential)
Aug 21 - META 535c $3 → 8.50 ($3000 → $8500 potential)
Aug 20 - SPX 5600p $4.50 → 15 ($4500 → $18000 potential)
Aug 20 - SPX 5580p $2 → 7 ($2000 → $7000 potential)
Aug 19 - SPX 5600c $0.4 → 8.25 ($400 → $8250 potential)
Aug 15 - SMCI 600c (swing) $2 → 38 ($2000 → $38000 potential)
Aug 15 - SPX 5540c 0.50 —> 3.50 ($500 → $3500 potential)
Aug 14 - SPX 5400p 5.50 → 10 ($5500 → $10000 potential)
Aug 14 - SPX 5450c 4 → 10 ($4000 → $10000 potential)
Aug 14 - SPX 5450c 1.50 → 10 ($1500 → $10000 potential)
Aug 14 - SPX 5460c 0.20 → 3 (0.10 entry goal, took small 0.20) ($200 → $3000 potential)
Aug 13 - SMCI 600c swing $2.5 ($2500 → $10500 potential)
Aug 13 - SPX 5400p 17 stops 15 ($1700 —> $2300 potential)
Aug 12 - SPX5350c $8 stops 7 ($8000 → $25000 potential)
Aug 12 - SPX5340c $0.5 ($500 → $4500 potential)
Aug 09 - NVDA107c $0.2 stops .10 ($2000 → $7000 potential)
Aug 09 - LLY900c $3.50 stops 1.50 ($3500 → $11500 potential)
Aug 07 - SPX 5280p $10 stops 8 ($1000 → $8000+ potential)
Aug 07 - SPX 5200p $1 stops 0.5 ($1000 → $7000+ potential)
Aug 07 - NVDA 100p $0.8 stops 0.4 ($800 → $3300+ potential)
Aug 06 - SPX 5250c $10 stops 8 ($1000 —> $6000+potential)
Aug 06 - SPX 5250p $1.5 stops 0.75($1500 —> $13000+potential)
Aug 05 - SPX 5300c $3.50 stops 2.50 ($3500 —> $11000 +potential)
Aug 02 - SPX 5350p $5.50 (overnight swing from Aug 01) ($5500 —> $45000 +potential)
Aug 01 - SPX 5480p $4.50 ($4500 —> $65000 potential)
July 31 - SPX 5520c $12 ($1200 —> $3390 potential)
July 30 - SPX 5430p $2.50 ($2500 —> $30000 potential)
July 30 - SPX 5400p $2 ($2000 —> $10000 potential)
July 30 - TSLA 220p $1.50 ($1500 —> $5000 potential)
July 30 - SPX 5450c $0.20 ($200 —> $5000 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5450p $4.50 ($4500 —> $16000 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5460p $0.20 ($200 —> $1100 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5470p $1.5 ($1500 —> $8000 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5480c credit sell - collect $2700 risk $500
July 29 - SPX 5400p $2 out $6 ($2000 —> $6000 potential)
July 26 - SPX 5400p $2 out $6 ($2000 —> $6000 potential)
July 26 - SPX 5450c $4 out $12 reached 15.50 ($4000 —> $15500 potential)
July 25 - SPX 5450c $1, $1.50, and $1.75. target $10. reached $10! ($1000 —> $10000 potential)
July 25 - SPX 5450c $5. reached $41.70! ($5000 —> $41700 potential)
July 22 - CRWD 240p $1.7. reached $3.5! ($1700 —> $3500 potential)
July 22 - SPX 5580c $0.5. reached $3.3! ($500 —> $3300 potential)
July 19 - SPX 5500p $2. reached $12! ($2000 —> $12000 potential)
July 18 - SPX 5580p $5. reached $53+! ($5000 —> $53000 potential)
July 17 - SPX 5540c $2. reached $16! ($2000 —> $16000 potential)
July 16 - SPX 5660c $2. reached $10! ($2000 —> $10000 potential)
July 15 - SPX 5650c $1. reached $4! ($1000 —> $4000 potential)
July 11 - SPX 5600p $2. reached $23! ($2000 —> $23000 potential)
July 09 - Credit Sell SPX 5590/5595 bear calls 2.30-2.50 stops at 2.60 ( $2500 premium collected per 5k position risking $300)
July 08 - AVGO 1800c 13( $1300—> $2250 potential)
July 08 - SPX 5560p 2.50 stops 2.30 ( $2500—> $5000 potential)
July 08 - TSLA 270c 4.50 target 7.50 ( $4500—> $7600 potential)
July 03 - SPX 5520 2.5 ($2500—> $18000 potential)
July 02 - TSLA 225c 3.5 ($3500—> $8500 potential)
July 02 - SPX 5500c 2.50 ($2500 —> $10000 potential)
July 02 - SPX 5470 Bull Puts 2.50 ($2500 credit collected)
July 01 - closed TSLA Swing $2.65—> $12.00
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
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Trade Recap for Monday Sep 30
GOLD BOLD ITALIC = price action signal
GOLD REGULAR = action to take/taken
GREEN REGULAR = trades I should have taken
SPY / SPX
Yesterday was frustrating. Kept nailing short entry but no follow through and getting stopped.
Finally waited for direction after Powell spoke and then nailed it!
The biggest mistake was, once I had high probability of 574 coming, and we clear 571.50, I should have been pressing and buying all I could and not worry about discount/cheap buys even if only getting 3 to 5x vs the 20-100x off the lows.
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Education - How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows/failed breakdown reversal
Join at vwap mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Education - Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Let me know in the comments if you have questions or would like to see examples, I’ll share them.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Tuesday Oct 01
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
3rd quarter is closed! Overall needs to see if market gets follow through today after yesterday’s push or see if we move back into consolidation.
Let’s go over the ideas…