MMM and SAP Rally Premarket - Can they hold onto the gains? Trade ideas for Tuesday Oct 22, 2024
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We nailed the short and the long on SPY yesterday and then closed out the day with almost 10 bagger into the close!
I can’t stress enough that planning and being systematic pays off.
Monday’s Price Action
SPY started off with a mini push filling the gap and then flushing into 580.60 and then trapping shorts, reclaiming the 581.30 level I had a ran to 583.20. It then proceeded to put in some consolidation action. I told THT PRO members I was looking for SPX to close near 5855 and as such scooped 5855 at 0.45 and in another account at 0.30. This ran to 4.80 and SPX closed at 5853.98. I was off by a dollar! but not before getting 4-8x!
NVDA immediately reclaimed 138 and ran all day almost reaching 145!
MSTR gave an opening dip into 208 and then ran to 223 by end of day and then dipped back into 219s. Does it run to 250 by end of year?
META - dipped into 569, and then reclaimed the 572 level followed by a squeeze almost back to 577!
Overall I look at this action as consolidation behavior and not yet a signal to get bearish. That said, I’’m definitely keeping an eye out for the possible fails here.
Tuesday Premarket Action
A number of names are gapping down this morning. I’m a little surprised by the weakness, and so will be open to downside if supports break. In the meantime I’ll be looking for weak open and gap fill trades.
SPY tested 584 in after hours and has faded all premarket and tested yesterday’s lows at 580.60 .
NVDA initially gapped down in premarket but by 8am was gapping up. Will it hold gains?
SAP gapping up on mixed results. It’s joining the AI gain and now Europe’s most valuable company.
MMM gapping up to new highs on a beat and guidance raise!
With good e/r results and so far the gap ups holding, it will be interesting to see what happens after the open.
Let’s review the trade signals in SPY and go over ideas for today.
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What is Two Hour Trading?
Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Q4 Alert Leaderboard
Here's a look at some of the potential gains achieved through our entry alerts:
Oct 21 - SPX 5850c $1.50 ran to $5.6 on Round 1 ($1500 → $5600 potential)
Oct 21 - SPX 5850c $0.45 ran to $4.8 on Round 2 ($450 → $4800 potential)
Oct 21 - NFLX 775c $4 ran to $9.52 ($4000 → $9520 potential)
Oct 18- MSTR 210c $1 → $8.50 ($1000 —> $8500 potential)
Oct 17 - NFLX 705 commons buy after earning earnings. Exit 761. $56 Dollars!
Oct 17- SPX 5870c $1.80 → $7 ($1800 —> $7000 potential)
Oct 15- SPX 5800p $2.20 → $5.50 ($2200 —> $5500 potential)
Oct 15 - SMCI 50c $0.60→ $1.85 ($600 —> $1850 potential)
Oct 15 - SPX 5830c $4 → $18 ($4000 —> $18000 potential)
Oct 14 - SPX 5870c $0.45 → $4.4 ($450 —> $4400 potential)
Oct 14 - MSTR 210p 4.50 →$13.7 ($4500 → 13700 potential)
Oct 14 - PDD 135p(swing) 1.50 → $12 ($1500 → $12000 potential)
Oct 11 - SPX 5810c $5 → $14 ($5000 —> $14000 potential)
Oct 11 - SPX 5805p $1 → $13.50 ($1000 —> $13500 potential)
Oct 10 - SPX 5800c $2 → $6 ($2000 —> $6000 potential)
Oct 10 - SPX 5750p $0.50 → $3.40 ($500 —> $3400 potential)
Oct 09 - SPX 5775c $2.5 (thanks JY!) → $22 ($2500 —> $22000 potential)
Oct 09 - SPX 5800c $0.5 (dipped 0.20) → $2.45 ($500 —> $2450 potential)
Oct 09 - SPX 5790c $1 (dipped 0.70) → $8.65 ($1000 —> $8650 potential)
Oct 09 - SPX 5790c Round 2 $3.5 → $7.5 ($3500 —> $7500 potential)
Oct 08 - SPX 5750c $1 (dipped 0.70) → $2.30 ($1000 —> $8400 potential)
Oct 08 - SPX 5750c $2 (dipped 1.70) → $8.40 ($2000 —> $8400 potential)
Oct 08 - MSFT 415c $3 risk 0.20 —> 4.10 ($3000 → $4100) 5R!
Oct 07 - SPX 5720c $1 (dipped 1.20) → $3.30 ($1200 —> $3300 potential)
Oct 07 - SPX 5690p $1.50 (dipped 1.55) → $10.50 ($1550 —> $10500 potential)
Oct 07 - PDD 145p $2.35 (swing) → 5
Oct 04 - SPX 5700p $5 → $15.50 ($5000 —> $15500 potential)
Oct 04 - SPX 5730c $6 → $23.90 ($6000 —> $23900 potential)
Oct 04 - SPX 5740c $1.50 → $14 ($1500 —> $14000 potential)
Oct 04 - SPX 5750c $1 → $5 ($1000 —> $5000 potential)
Oct 04 - OXY 55c $0.35 → $0.80 ($3500 —> $8000 potential)
Oct 04 - META 595c $0.12 → 1.90 ($1200 —> $19000 potential)
Oct 03 - SPX 5655p $1 → $5 ($1000 —> $5000 potential)
Oct 03 - SPX 5690c $2 → $14.20($2000 → $14200 potential)
Oct 03 - SPX 5695c $1-2 → $9.80 ($1500 → $9800 potential)
Oct 03 - NVDA 125c $0.55 (swing)
Oct 03 - XOM 123c $0.22 (swing)
Oct 03 - OXY 55c $0.33 (swing)
Oct 03 - PDD 155c $1.20 (swing)
Oct 03 - SPX 5720/25 bear calls $2 —> 0 (risk $500 to collect $2000 premium)
Oct 02 - SPX 5700p $2.50 → $8.50 ($2500 —> $8500 potential)
Oct 02 - SPX 5720/25 bear calls $2.50 —> 0 (risk $500 to collect $2500 premium)
Oct 01 - SPX 5720p $3 → $12 ($3000 —> $12000 potential)
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
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Trade Recap for Monday Oct 21
GOLD BOLD ITALIC = price action signal
GOLD REGULAR = action to take/taken
GREEN REGULAR = trades I should have taken
SPY / SPX
Monster day. I seriously missed on huge gains in the morning. I was looking for 585 to get tagged and had cheapie orders set to scoop 5860p. I should have been focused on 5830p which dipped to $1 and ran to $12!
Because I was later, and at the same time was hawking scoop trades in NFLX and MSTR, I missed the best entries. That said. I knew how OTM contracts spike on moves like this and took SPX 5810p for 1 to 2.80 and 4. It moved so fast I couldn’t alert it, but I did alert to members I thought 581 was coming per my blog idea yesterday!
We then crushed the long entry on SPX 5850c at 1.50 and it ran to 5.60!!! Edge Trade Planner was amazing accurate on estimate sell prices.
Remember I’m not looking to get max gains, but consistent systematic gains at 5R or better! Our trades after 10:30 having been getting this day in and day out in recent weeks!
That’s all I have time for to review this morning.
If you are busy and want to see my commentary and ideas in real time consider joining THT-PRO.
Education - How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows/failed breakdown reversal
Join at vwap mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Education - Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Let me know in the comments if you have questions or would like to see examples, I’ll share them.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Tuesday Oct 22
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
I think we are still in sideways consolidation mode but if 580 breaks we could see some downside but I’m not expecting much deeper the 575 at this point.
Be sure to read this post in preparation for action this week ahead of elections.
Let’s go over the ideas…