Markets look weak. Will SPY break 585 today?Trade ideas for Jan 10, 2024
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Good morning traders !
On Wednesday I wrote I was worried that the day would be full of chop, wand we got 2 failed breaks, at both ends, up and down!
We got a couple of 100% gainer+ trades but I gave most of it back following process. Using news + failed breakdown as the signal to scale up for a breakout that didn’t have follow through so I quickly cut it for a loss eating my profits from earlier.
I did the right thing and I can’t beat myself up for the loss, because other times that trade would have 5 or 10x my gains on the day.
That is the thing about trading and being systematic. You know will have losses but when the pieces are in place you take do the same thing every time. Trying to over optimize will only lead to mediocre results. If there is one thing you know about my trades, the returns are often not mediocre! I’m in this for the win.
Wednesday Highlights
SPY - chopped around between my 2 levels. 585.40 and 589.50 all day
TSLA - chop between 388 and 399
NVDA - 143 pop and drop to 138.
MSTR - perfect pop into 340 reject ad dumped right to the 317 level I shared in the past..
Friday Premarket Highlights
SPX is at 35% IV. ( i usually want to see 12-15%). so today Credit Sell trades nay be the way to go once it starts to bleed out.
SPY - essentially range bounce within Wednesday range.
TSLA - little unchanged
AMD and NVDA - gapping down a little and looking weak!
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Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2025 Q1 Alert Leaderboard
Here's a look at some of the potential gains achieved through our entry alerts:
2024-01-02 SPX 5880p 11 to 40+
2024-01-02 SPX 5820p $2 to 10
2024-01-03 SPX 5930c $2, dipped to $3 and ran to $11
2024-01-06 SPX 5980p $1.70 → $20 ($1700 to $20k potential)
2024-01-07 SPX 5900p $0.50 → $11 ($500 to $11000 potential)
2024-01-07 SPX 5930p $5 → $17.4 ($5000 to $17400 potential)
2024-01-07 SPX 5930p $5 → $40 ($500 to $4000 potential)
2024-01-08 SPX 5800p 1/10 $4 → $10 ($400 to $1000 potential)
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
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Trade Recap for Wed Jan 8
GOLD BOLD ITALIC = price action signal
WHITE REGULAR = action to take/taken
GREEN REGULAR = trades I should have taken
SPY / SPX
Were you able to spot the signals?
When you see me mention chop you want to look for failed breaks at levels. notice how clean the setup was at the 2 key levels. Outside of that is was just pain.
I did add with size or upside after FOMC minutes came out. Why? We had failed breakdown and then after FOMC we dipped and held below vwap, then crossed over and cleared high of day. That made the potential for a squeeze likely. but it turned into yet another fakeout. But I wasn’t stubborn I ate the loss. I would have had 5x the loss if i hesitated.
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Education - How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows/failed breakdown reversal
Join at vwap mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Education - Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Let me know in the comments if you have questions or would like to see examples, I’ll share them.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Friday Jan 10
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
IV is seriously spiked ahead of Unemployment data ad slowly coming down after. Normally I lie to avoid SPX when it’s IV is over 15% currently around 34%. Will be hawking credit sell trades.
Read on for my thoughts/plans…