Markets gapping up, will SPY see 583+ today? - Trade ideas for Friday Oct 25, 2024
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Good morning traders!
As expected, yesterday turned into a consolidation day. It even baited that down side at 275 was going to come again and then reversed. Process-wise I went short because I’m being systematic, took profits, systematically but then got stopped on runners and got long on the 578 reclaim. Good lessons for anyone in the Trade recap for how I do that.
This morning we are gapping up, the question in my mind is will markets wait till inflation data next week and end of month rebalancing to trigger new highs or not. Is this gap up a faker, bull bait? I’ve account for these concerns in my trade ideas section. Overall as technical traders, it doesn’t matter so much, as long we are trading level to level and waiting for great risk/reward opportunity.
Thursday’s Price Action
SPY basically consolidated yesterday and gave a failed breakdown reversal dip at 577. I told THT-PRO members, yesterday morning to watch for exactly that. And we got it! Basically we consolidated all day and that means buy at support for a swing. (This is a new pattern for me) And profit on the gap up the next day. It’s like clockwork! Trust me. I shared this $100k+ strategy on Sunday for absolutely free! Are you paying attention? Why did I share this? I want you to join me for a drink as I travel the world on a whim!
How? I want you to subscribe to THT-PRO, use Edge Trade Planner, learn from the community, and become master trade planners too! I can give you the strategies, but the execution is where folks often fail, I’m here to help, I’m here to automate it!
PS I alerted to scoop SPX 5820c for 0.20 over 1 hour before the entry came! It then ran to $2!!!!!! What are you waiting for?
META - got to 562 support for possible long.
NFLX - got to 745 target, watch for 750 reclaim
MSTR - ran to 231 dipped to 220 and then ran to 237! Our swing on 217.50c at $3 is at $20!!!
TSLA - We got to 261 level dipped to vwap and then pushed back up into close. 262-264 has been a sell zone.
Friday’s Premarket Action
SPY is gapping up like expected had has cleared 580.50 watch for a back test of this level for possible long.
Many of the names that flushed this week are gapping up.
TSLA gapped down over night to 253 and is pushing back on 257.
META is at 574 from 567 close
MSTR is gapping up 239!
Yesterday was the dip buys on support, today is the dividend.
Let’s review the trade signals in SPY and go over ideas for today.
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Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Q4 Alert Leaderboard
Here's a look at some of the potential gains achieved through our entry alerts:
Oct 24 - SPX 5770p $2 → $6.2 ($2000 → $6200 potential)
Oct 24 - SPX 5810c $0.20 → $2.05 ($2000 → $20500 potential)
Oct 24 - SPX 5810/5805 Bull puts for $3.20 went to -> 0.12 (collect 90%+ premium)
Oct 23 - SPX 5790p $3 → $27.80 ($3000 → $27800 potential)
Oct 23 - SPX 5830c $6 → 11.20 5R ($6000 → $11000 potential)
Oct 23 - TSM 205c 0.55 → 1.55 ($550 → 1555 potential)
Oct 23 - MSTR 217.5c $3 → ? 20+ (swing). sold 50% at 6 for 100% gain!
Oct 23 -NFLX 750p $3.50 → 9.20 ($3500 → $9200 potential)
Oct 22 - SPX 5850c $3 (dipped to 1) ran to $14.80 on Round 1 ($3000 → $14800 potential)
Oct 22 - SPX 5850c $3 ran to $11 on Round 2 ($3000 → $11000 potential)
Oct 21 - SPX 5850c $1.50 ran to $5.6 on Round 1 ($1500 → $5600 potential)
Oct 21 - SPX 5850c $0.45 ran to $4.8 on Round 2 ($450 → $4800 potential)
Oct 21 - NFLX 775c $4 ran to $9.52 ($4000 → $9520 potential)
Oct 18- MSTR 210c $1 → $8.50 ($1000 —> $8500 potential)
Oct 17 - NFLX 705 commons buy after earning earnings. Exit 761. $56 Dollars!
Oct 17- SPX 5870c $1.80 → $7 ($1800 —> $7000 potential)
Oct 15- SPX 5800p $2.20 → $5.50 ($2200 —> $5500 potential)
Oct 15 - SMCI 50c $0.60→ $1.85 ($600 —> $1850 potential)
Oct 15 - SPX 5830c $4 → $18 ($4000 —> $18000 potential)
Oct 14 - SPX 5870c $0.45 → $4.4 ($450 —> $4400 potential)
Oct 14 - MSTR 210p 4.50 →$13.7 ($4500 → 13700 potential)
Oct 14 - PDD 135p(swing) 1.50 → $12 ($1500 → $12000 potential)
Oct 11 - SPX 5810c $5 → $14 ($5000 —> $14000 potential)
Oct 11 - SPX 5805p $1 → $13.50 ($1000 —> $13500 potential)
Oct 10 - SPX 5800c $2 → $6 ($2000 —> $6000 potential)
Oct 10 - SPX 5750p $0.50 → $3.40 ($500 —> $3400 potential)
Oct 09 - SPX 5775c $2.5 (thanks JY!) → $22 ($2500 —> $22000 potential)
Oct 09 - SPX 5800c $0.5 (dipped 0.20) → $2.45 ($500 —> $2450 potential)
Oct 09 - SPX 5790c $1 (dipped 0.70) → $8.65 ($1000 —> $8650 potential)
Oct 09 - SPX 5790c Round 2 $3.5 → $7.5 ($3500 —> $7500 potential)
Oct 08 - SPX 5750c $1 (dipped 0.70) → $2.30 ($1000 —> $8400 potential)
Oct 08 - SPX 5750c $2 (dipped 1.70) → $8.40 ($2000 —> $8400 potential)
Oct 08 - MSFT 415c $3 risk 0.20 —> 4.10 ($3000 → $4100) 5R!
Oct 07 - SPX 5720c $1 (dipped 1.20) → $3.30 ($1200 —> $3300 potential)
Oct 07 - SPX 5690p $1.50 (dipped 1.55) → $10.50 ($1550 —> $10500 potential)
Oct 07 - PDD 145p $2.35 (swing) → 5
Oct 04 - SPX 5700p $5 → $15.50 ($5000 —> $15500 potential)
Oct 04 - SPX 5730c $6 → $23.90 ($6000 —> $23900 potential)
Oct 04 - SPX 5740c $1.50 → $14 ($1500 —> $14000 potential)
Oct 04 - SPX 5750c $1 → $5 ($1000 —> $5000 potential)
Oct 04 - OXY 55c $0.35 → $0.80 ($3500 —> $8000 potential)
Oct 04 - META 595c $0.12 → 1.90 ($1200 —> $19000 potential)
Oct 03 - SPX 5655p $1 → $5 ($1000 —> $5000 potential)
Oct 03 - SPX 5690c $2 → $14.20($2000 → $14200 potential)
Oct 03 - SPX 5695c $1-2 → $9.80 ($1500 → $9800 potential)
Oct 03 - NVDA 125c $0.55 (swing)
Oct 03 - XOM 123c $0.22 (swing)
Oct 03 - OXY 55c $0.33 (swing)
Oct 03 - PDD 155c $1.20 (swing)
Oct 03 - SPX 5720/25 bear calls $2 —> 0 (risk $500 to collect $2000 premium)
Oct 02 - SPX 5700p $2.50 → $8.50 ($2500 —> $8500 potential)
Oct 02 - SPX 5720/25 bear calls $2.50 —> 0 (risk $500 to collect $2500 premium)
Oct 01 - SPX 5720p $3 → $12 ($3000 —> $12000 potential)
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
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Trade Recap for Thursday Oct 24
GOLD BOLD ITALIC = price action signal
GOLD REGULAR = action to take/taken
GREEN REGULAR = trades I should have taken
SPY / SPX
I waited the first hour before trading SPY/SPX. And it paid off!
Notice the 5770p and the trigger being the VWAP rejection after 10:30 and then seeing the support about to break.
The big lesson there is where I should have gone long and where I got stopped on my runners.
The neat thing is that the reload to the 80% take profit was essential 2—>6 for 200% gain.
Then I flipped into Bull puts estimating that we will close near 5815. And to be “safe” I targeted 5810/5805 for $3.20. Solid payout on the bull puts.
Then my dream trade came. I wanted 5820c for 0.20. It came 90 minutes later and ran to $2. PLANNING IS EVERYTHING!!! Normally I sell 50% at 2-3x, this time I sold 30% at 0.70, and 80% at 1.50 and missed $2 exit, all out at 1.20 on last 20%. Beautiful!
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Education - How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows/failed breakdown reversal
Join at vwap mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Education - Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Let me know in the comments if you have questions or would like to see examples, I’ll share them.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Friday Oct 25
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
I think we are still in sideways consolidation mode but if 580 breaks we could see some downside but I’m not expecting much deeper the 575 at this point. Until 585 becomes support, I think 584s on SPY can be a sell zone.
Be sure to read this post in preparation for action this week ahead of elections.
Let’s go over the ideas…