Market gapping up strongly ahead of inflation data this morning. Are we at the start of a new rally or will the market dump? Trade Ideas for Friday June 28, 2024
With the end of the quarter and first half of the year, will market continue is rally?
Good morning traders!
Amazing day yesterday. I had been hawking SMCI to restarts its rally and we nailed it!
Yesterday morning I wrote I want 850c out of the gate. This dipped to 10 and ran to 45 and could hit 55-70 today. I later alerted 870c for $9 which ran to 30 where I alerted that I was out 70% of my position and swinging the rest.
Spectacular day. Want trades like this? Join our THT community where we focus on lest time trading and more time on positioning into high quality trade setups.
I’ll review these trade setups and my plans for the market given the gap up. HINT: Its the same thing we do every day. Follow process.
If you're struggling, take some time to review past blog posts and learn the processes and core trade setups I use. Patience is key. Don't force yourself into a trade. Only enter trades at or near key levels with enough range to the next level to provide a great risk/reward opportunity.
Introduction (for New Readers)
Welcome to my blog on Two Hour Trading, your daily source for market insights and trading opportunities. In this blog, I will provide you with a comprehensive analysis of the market, educational lessons, and trade ideas to help you stay ahead in your trading journey and best of all doing it less than two hours a day.
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Subscribers to this blog will receive daily updates on market analysis, educational content, and up to three trade ideas each morning, all based on real-life examples and my personal approach to trading.
NOTE: screenshots from chat are from Edge Trade Planner. A platform available to THT PRO members. Join Us for live commentary and planning. Note my goal is to actively trade less than 2 hours a day finding 1 to 4 great trades a day.
What is Two Hour Trading?
It’s my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to setup. Key benefits:
High Quality trades with great reward vs risk
Avoid Overtrading and losses from it
Trading to Win vs Trading to Not Lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Alert Leaderboard
(I’ve decided to include a leaderboard so you can see what potential the 2 Hour Trading System has)
The following is based on entry alerts.
June 27 - TSLA 200c 7/5 swing $2.65 —> ($2650—> $4500 potential so far could hit $15000+)
June 26 - TSLA 200c 7/5 swing $2.65 —> ($2650—> $4500 potential so far could hit $15000+)
June 25 - SPX 4470c $1 —> ($1000—> $5000 potential)
June 24 - SPX 4460p $1 —> ($1000—> $12000 potential)
June 20 - NVDA 135p $0.75 —> ($750—> $5000 potential)
June 20 - SPX 4480p $1.50 —> ($1500—> $10000 potential)
June 20 - SPX 4475p $0.50 —> ($500—> $5000 potential)
June 13 - SMCI 820c $10 stops $5 —> ($1000—> $6200 potential)
June 13 - SMCI 900c $2.50 stops $1.25 —> ($2500—> $13000 potential)
June 13 - AVGO 1650p $5 stops $3 —> ($5000—> $22500 potential)
June 12 - SPX puts on SPY 544 reject —> SPX 5220p went from $1 to $12
June 12 - AAPL 220c $0.85 —> ($850 —> $2800 potential)
June 11 - AAPL 200c $1.50 —> ($1500 —> $7500 potential —> $20000 if swung)
June 11 - AAPL 205c 6/21 $1 (swing) —> ($1000 -$6000 —> $15000 if swung)
June 11 - SPX 5360c $2.50 —> ($2500 —> $15000 potential)
June 10 - SPX 5350c $4.20 —> ($4200 —> $16000 potential)
June 6 - NVDA 1220c $12 —> ($1200 —> $2100 potential)
June 5- SPX 5350c 0.30 —> ($3000 —> $45000 potential)
June 5 - META 490c $3 —> ($3000 —> $9500 potential)
June 4 - SPX 5290/95 bear calls $1.80 —> ($1500 credit potential, $1000 if held to close)
June 3 - SPX 5280p $5 —> ($500 —> $4500 potential)
May 22 - SPX 5280p $0.10 —> ($1000 —> $43000 potential)
May 22 - SPX 5300p $0.50 —> ($500 —> $15000 potential)
May 21 - SPX 5320c $0.50 (alert: 0.25 target $2-5) —> ($500 —> $6000 potential)
May 21 - SMCI 1000c $9.25 Swing (entry day before) —> ($925 —> $2100 potential)
May 17 - AMD 170c $0.20 Swing (entry day before) —> ($200 —> $1500 potential)
May 16 - SPX 5300p $0.20 Round 3 —> ($200 —> $2800 potential)
May 16 - SPX 5300p $0.50 Round 2 —> ($500 —> $2600 potential)
May 16 - SPX 5300p $1 Round 1 —> ($1000 —> $5000 potential)
May 15 - SMCI 850c $12 —> ($1200 —> $10000 potential)
May 14 - SPX 5240c $0.50 —> ($500 —> $10600 potential)
May 14 - SPX 5230/5225 bull puts $4 —> ($4000 premium potential)
May 14 - SPX 5245c $0.20 —> ($200 —> $6000 potential)
May 14 - SPX 5240c $0.50 —> ($500 —> $10600 potential)
May 14 - SPX 5230/5225 bull puts $4 —> ($4000 premium potential)
May 13 - SPX 5220/5215 bull puts $2.50 —> ($2500 premium potential)
May 13 - TSLA 170p $1.90 —> ($1900 —> $2890 potential)
May 10 - AMD 162.50p $0.25 (0.25 entry) —> ($250 —> $1600 potential)
May 9 - SPX 5210c $1.25 (1-1.50 entry) —> ($1250 —> $6200 potential)
May 9 - SPX 5220c $0.20 —> ($200 —> $1100 potential)
May 9 - SPX 5200c $3 —> ($3000 —> 15800 potential) (dipped to 2.20)
May 8 - SPX 5200/5205 bear calls $1.20 —> ($1200 premium potential)
May 8 - SPX 5190/5195 bear calls $1.50 —> ($1500 premium potential)
May 8 - SPX 5180c $4 —> ($400—> $1100 potential)
May 7 - SPX 5190c $1 —> ($1000—> $4000 potential)
May 7 - SPX 5190c $1 —> ($1000—> $4000 potential)
May 7 - DIS 105p $0.40 —> ($400—> $1600 potential)
May 6 - SPX 5170c $3 —> ($300—> $1100 potential)
May 6 - SPX 5175c $0.40 —> ($400 —>$7000 potential)
May 3 - SPX 5150/5155 bear calls $1.50 —> ($1500 premium potential)
May 2 - SPX 5020p $7 —> ($700 → $2180 potential)
May 2 - SPX 5070c $1.20 —> ($1500 → $7200 potential)
May 2 - SPX 5070c $3—> ($3000 → $7200 potential)
Apr 30 - SPX 5080p $3 —> ($3000 → $45000 potential)
Apr 23 - SPX 5060/5055 bull puts - Entry $1.75 ($1750 premium potential) drawdown < $200
Apr 22 - SPX 5050c swing - $5.50 → ($5500 → $42000 potential)
Apr 22 - SPX 5000c - $3.20 → ($3200 → $39000 potential)
Apr 22 - SPX 5020c - $0.20 alert, dipped to 0.55, fill at $0.70 → ($700 → $20000 potential)
Apr 19 - SMCI 750p - $1.50 → ($1500 → $38k+ potential)
Apr 19 - NVDA 800p - Entry $0.5 ($500→$40k potential)
Apr 18 - SPX 5050c - Entry $6 ($6000→$16000 potential)
Apr 18 - SPX 5020p - Entry $4 ($5000→$20000 potential)
Apr 16 - SPX 5140/5135 bull puts - Entry $2.50 ($2500 premium potential) drawdown < $300
Apr 12 - SPX 5100p $1. (dipped to 1.30) - Entry $2 ($2500 premium potential)
Apr 11 - SPX 5180/5185 bear calls - Entry $2.50 ($2500 premium potential)
Apr 10 - SPX 5180/5185 bear calls - Entry $2.50 ($2500 premium potential)
Apr 10 - SPX 5170c - Entry 0.50 ($500 → $5000 potential)
Apr 9 - SPX 5185/5180 bull puts - Entry $3 ($3000 premium potential)
Apr 9 - SPX 5205c - Entry $0.50 ($500→ $6000 potential)
Apr 8 - SPX 5225/5230 bear calls - Entry $1.20 ($1200 premium potential)
Apr 8 - SPX 5200/5195 bear puts - Entry $0.10 ($1000→ $8000 potential)
Apr 4 - SPX 5250p - Entry $4 ($4000→ $100k potential)
Apr 4 - SPX 5180p - Entry $1.30 ($1300 > $32k potential)
Apr 3 - SPX 5175/5170 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
Apr 2 - SPX 5175/5170 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
Apr 2 - SPX 5205/5200 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
For live alerts and market commentary click the button below.
Wednesday's Price Action (Education)
You don't try to make $100,000 ...You don’t start by saying, I’m going to make the biggest most profitable trade and turn $1000 into $100,000 and fix all my bad trades before.
You say, I’m going to plan and execute 1 trade as perfectly as I can today. You do that every single day, and soon you'll have a $100,000 and likely much more!
Please note all times are Eastern/New York regardless of what time zone I happen to be in.
SPY / SPX
Based on the action yesterday I was looking for a close at worst case near 5484 and idea a breakout toward 5510.
I wasn’t 100% convinced of the high of day breakout developing in afternoon and so I focused on trying fill SPX 5480 bull puts at 2.50. Risk 2500 to win 2500 as I felt I had an 80%+ probability of winning. I’m using the levels to make this determination. We dipped into the r/g line giving me a fill and then flushed under 5470. This put me upside down 1.50. I took it to mean a better risk reward. I could add at 4 and risk 1000 to collect 4000 in premium. so now I am risking 3500 to collect 6500 in premium. much better ration than the 1:1 I had earlier.
Into the 5470 dump I alerted I wanted 5470 bull puts for 2.50. it only gave us 2.20, so I took starter at 2 and then added once it was working.
I also alerted 5470c for $5.50 which ran to $12 into the close. I wanted it for 2.50 if we flushed int 5466 but we didn’t get that. My logic was that we should be able to sell for $10+ and if a breakout before close comes, then maybe over 30+. I take the bet.
So what is the trigger for entry? In my case for the credit sells, it was stricity based on risk/reward and method 1 (anticipation of reversal). if you want method 2, then entry would be on the green candle crossing above the previous low after the bottoming action under 5470. So in the morning and afternoon, that would be close over 5472/5473 to be safest targeting 5480+
SMCI
Yesterday I wrote I would be paying extra attention to chip names now that MU earnings is out of the way. Thursday, a failed breakdown reversal move developed and MU though it dipped was showing a little bit of strength so I decided I wanted it long out of the gate. Felt like a great risk reward. Though I should have taken 900c out of the gate, I chose 850c. Once the upside confirmation was in I also alerted 870c though my stop was too tight and I got stopped for $1 los anticipating the dip under 10:30 level to protect capital. But as soon as it reclaimed I jumped back in pay $1 more than my original entry. I wasn’t going to sweat $2 when I had over $10-30 of profit coming!
Here is what the 870c did.
What were the triggers to get in?
Trigger 1: cross of 839
Trigger 2: failed breakdown reversal of 10:30(peach line leve)
Trigger 3: vwap back test around 11am
I also alerted taking 900c for 5.50 Which hit $14+ yesterday.
Once we got positioned there was nothing to do but set sell orders in advance and go enjoy the day. Not bad planning and work for an hour or two in the day!
TSLA - Swing update
TSLA is approaching 200 this morning in premarket.
The 200c for 7/5 hit 5.3 in the morning and then TSLA came back to base around 195 for reloads for 3.50 ($1 above original entry). Should see 7-15 by next week
Trade Ideas - Plan for Friday June 28
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
If I can I will come back and update after market reaction to inflation data, but I need to head out to get my blood drawn.
Following process I will look initially for gap up reversals, I will also look for gap fills and the get long. However if market begin strong sell progress, I will join that trend too. For now the bias is definitely long.