Market filled the overnight gap yesterday. Will PCE carry us back to highs or break support? Algo Update. Trade ideas for Friday Sept 27, 2024
Market filled the overnight gap yesterday. Will PCE carry us back to highs or break support? Algo Update. Trade ideas for Friday Sept 27, 2024
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Good morning traders!
What a session yesterday! Other than the 2 swings that paid 10-20x yesterday I was only able to plan for 2-4x gainer trades intraday yesterday. Feels like a let day after the overnight win.
Anger is an amazing motivator — at least for me. I told myself yesterday I was gong to get short on SMCI after the 483 fail and 474 break and I didn’t! and then a news event came that would have made 20x on the position. That wont always happen, but it was still a great risk/reward idea for a 3-5R trade.
PCE Data
Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which is crucial for understanding consumer spending trends in the U.S. Let’s see if it creates a catalyst in either direction.
Algo Development Update
As you all know I’ve been working on an algo to assist if not alert better than me. One of the key criteria is to signal with at least a 5 to 15 minute window before a reversal happens so we have time to plan and position.
One the most difficult aspects is the prediction factor, but also to reduce the number of signals to the best risk/reward ideas.
Here is what the latest run from last night did with yesterdays action.
SPY - 11:20am - signaled for a pop 18 minutes before reversal started for 572.50 backtest
SPY - 1:19pm - signal for a reversal 8 minutes before reversal started for 572.50 again.
IWM - 10:00am - it signaled that the pop was a short
MSFT - false positives these should not have signaled
SMCI -10:02am - just before it rejected at 483 it signaled for a short
SMCI - 10:42am - given news event should be ignored.
TSLA - 10:55am - It nailed the low of day!
The cool thing, is the above are the only events generated to begin hawking for a reversal. (How much would that help and save you in effort)! Thats what I want.
Combining the signals with my levels and process should lead to more profitable trades with higher win rates for members while spend a lot less time!
I will add the Reversal Radar to Edge this weekend to give us a headsup for possible reversals and in the coming weeks develop the reversal confirmation signals and the autogeneration of trade plans. Stay tuned!
Yesterday’s Price Action
The drop yesterday was a pretty expected behavior. The question was, would it happen at 575 or 577. Large gap ups into new highs are often met with profit taking and gap fill. That is exactly what we got. the strange / new development was that a number of names broke previous day lows and dropped more than just a gap fill.
This puts the rally in question, but for now as long at 569 continues to hold, the uptrend is still intact.
The key level yesterday was 571 — notice the failed break down reversal it had there.
Swing trades
China names continue to grind but my 128-130 target on PDD was met and now I’m all out. The PDD 110c went from 1.25 to 28 and the PDD 114c went from $1 to $16.
I’ll be watch for exhaustion for a scalp short and then reload for more squeeze.
Essentially the easy money imho is done.
The SPX 5760c we too yesterday from $1-2. to $16! In premarket $18+ was possible.
Overall no active short term swing trades at this moment.
…..
Let’s review the action in SPY and go over ideas for today.
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What is Two Hour Trading?
Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Alert Leaderboard
Here's a look at some of the potential gains achieved through our entry alerts:
Sep 26 - SPX 5730p $2 → $8 ($2000 —> 8000 potential)
Sep 26 - SPX 5730p $2.30 → $12 ($2300 —> 12000 potential)
Sep 25 - SPX 5760c $1.50 (swing) → ? Currently $16 ($1500 —> $17000 potential) (Interactive Brokers lets you trade SPX options overnight)
Sep 25 - SPX 5730c $1 —> 4.10 ($1000 —> $4100 potential)
Sep 25 - SPX 5720p $3 —> 10.63 ($3000 → $10630 potential)
Sep 24/25 - PDD 110c 1.25 (swing) —> 16 ($1250→ $14000 potential)
Sep 24 - PDD 110c 1.25 —> 4.50 ($1250→ $4500 potential)
Sep 24 - SPX 5720c 4.20 —> 15 ($4200→ $16800 potential)
Sep 20 - CRWD 295c 0.25 —> 5 ($2500→ $50000 potential)
Sep 19 - SPX 5730/35 bear calls $4 —> 0 ($collect $4000 premium risking $500)
Sep 18 - SPX 5650/55 bear calls $4.50 —> 0 ($collect $4500 premium risking $500)
Sep 18 - SPX 5670/75 bear calls $1.50 —> 0 ($collect $1500 premium risking $500)
Sep 17 - SPX 5630p $3.50 —> 20 ($3500 → $20000 potential)
Sep 16 - SPX 5600p $3 → 10.50 ( $3000 → $10500 potential )
Sep 11 - SPX 5500c $0.50 → 60 ( $1000 → $120000 potential )
Sep 11 - SPX 5450c $4.5 → 110 ( $4500 → $110000 potential )
Sep 11 - SPX 5400p $2.75 → 14 ( $2750 → $14000 potential )
Sep 10 - SPX 5450p $3.50 → 18 ( $3500 → $18000 potential )
Sep 09 - SPX 5450p $2.35 → 8 ( $2350 → $8000 potential )
Sep 09 - NVDA 102p $1.35 → 2.15 ( $1350 → $2100 potential )
Sep 06 - SPX 5430p $3 → 29.60 ( $3000 → $29600 potential )
Sep 06 - SPX 5430p $8 → 29.60 ( $8000 → $29600 potential )
Sep 06 - SPX 5450c 0.30 → 1.70 ( $3000 → $17000 potential )
Sep 06 - TSLA 220p 0.60 → 7 ( $600 → $7000 potential )
Sep 06 - NVDA 102p 0.20 —> 1.50 ( $2000 → $15000 potential )
Sep 05 - TSLA 230c 2.30 → 7 ( $2300 → $7000 potential )
Sep 05 - SPX 5620p 6 → 37 ( $6000 → $37000 potential )
Sep 05 - SPX 5480p 0.5 (dipped to 0.22) → 5.20 ( $1000 → $10000 potential )
Sep 04 - SPX 5630p 6 → 26 ( $6000 → $26000 potential )
Sep 03 - SPX 5630p 0.20 (dipped to 0.75) ( $750 → $19000 potential )
Sep 03 - SPX 5555p 4.50 → 46 ( $4500 → $46000 potential )
Sep 03 - NVDA 110p 1.4 —> 4.4 (1400 → 4400 potenial)
Sep 03 - UVXY 25c 1.2 —> 5.4 ( $1200 → $5400 potential)
Aug 30 - SPX 5640c 0.20 (dipped to 0.30) —> 14 ($3000 → $140000 potential)
Aug 29 - SPX 5650c 3.50 —> 6 ($3500 → $6500 potential)
Aug 29 - MSFT 420c 1.30 —> 4 ($1300 → $4000 potential)
Aug 28 - SPX 5560p 1 —> 8.70 ($1000 → $8700 potential)
Aug 28 - SPX 5560p 1 —> 8.70 ($1000 → $8700 potential)
Aug 28 - SPX 5580p 1.75 —> 21 ($1750 → $21000 potential)
Aug 27-28 - PDD 95p 0.75 → $7 ($750 → $7000 potential) *swing trade
Aug 27 - SPX 5620c 4.50 → $19 ($4500 → $19500 potential)
Aug 27 - PDD 95p 0.75 → $1.66 ($750 → $1660 potential) *swing still in play
Aug 26 - PDD 100P $1.50 → $6.50 ($1500 → $6500 potential)
Aug 23 - SPX 5600p $7 → 38 ($7000 → $38000 potential)
Aug 22 - SPX 5600p $7 → 38 ($7000 → $38000 potential)
Aug 21 - META 535c $3 → 8.50 ($3000 → $8500 potential)
Aug 20 - SPX 5600p $4.50 → 15 ($4500 → $18000 potential)
Aug 20 - SPX 5580p $2 → 7 ($2000 → $7000 potential)
Aug 19 - SPX 5600c $0.4 → 8.25 ($400 → $8250 potential)
Aug 15 - SMCI 600c (swing) $2 → 38 ($2000 → $38000 potential)
Aug 15 - SPX 5540c 0.50 —> 3.50 ($500 → $3500 potential)
Aug 14 - SPX 5400p 5.50 → 10 ($5500 → $10000 potential)
Aug 14 - SPX 5450c 4 → 10 ($4000 → $10000 potential)
Aug 14 - SPX 5450c 1.50 → 10 ($1500 → $10000 potential)
Aug 14 - SPX 5460c 0.20 → 3 (0.10 entry goal, took small 0.20) ($200 → $3000 potential)
Aug 13 - SMCI 600c swing $2.5 ($2500 → $10500 potential)
Aug 13 - SPX 5400p 17 stops 15 ($1700 —> $2300 potential)
Aug 12 - SPX5350c $8 stops 7 ($8000 → $25000 potential)
Aug 12 - SPX5340c $0.5 ($500 → $4500 potential)
Aug 09 - NVDA107c $0.2 stops .10 ($2000 → $7000 potential)
Aug 09 - LLY900c $3.50 stops 1.50 ($3500 → $11500 potential)
Aug 07 - SPX 5280p $10 stops 8 ($1000 → $8000+ potential)
Aug 07 - SPX 5200p $1 stops 0.5 ($1000 → $7000+ potential)
Aug 07 - NVDA 100p $0.8 stops 0.4 ($800 → $3300+ potential)
Aug 06 - SPX 5250c $10 stops 8 ($1000 —> $6000+potential)
Aug 06 - SPX 5250p $1.5 stops 0.75($1500 —> $13000+potential)
Aug 05 - SPX 5300c $3.50 stops 2.50 ($3500 —> $11000 +potential)
Aug 02 - SPX 5350p $5.50 (overnight swing from Aug 01) ($5500 —> $45000 +potential)
Aug 01 - SPX 5480p $4.50 ($4500 —> $65000 potential)
July 31 - SPX 5520c $12 ($1200 —> $3390 potential)
July 30 - SPX 5430p $2.50 ($2500 —> $30000 potential)
July 30 - SPX 5400p $2 ($2000 —> $10000 potential)
July 30 - TSLA 220p $1.50 ($1500 —> $5000 potential)
July 30 - SPX 5450c $0.20 ($200 —> $5000 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5450p $4.50 ($4500 —> $16000 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5460p $0.20 ($200 —> $1100 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5470p $1.5 ($1500 —> $8000 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5480c credit sell - collect $2700 risk $500
July 29 - SPX 5400p $2 out $6 ($2000 —> $6000 potential)
July 26 - SPX 5400p $2 out $6 ($2000 —> $6000 potential)
July 26 - SPX 5450c $4 out $12 reached 15.50 ($4000 —> $15500 potential)
July 25 - SPX 5450c $1, $1.50, and $1.75. target $10. reached $10! ($1000 —> $10000 potential)
July 25 - SPX 5450c $5. reached $41.70! ($5000 —> $41700 potential)
July 22 - CRWD 240p $1.7. reached $3.5! ($1700 —> $3500 potential)
July 22 - SPX 5580c $0.5. reached $3.3! ($500 —> $3300 potential)
July 19 - SPX 5500p $2. reached $12! ($2000 —> $12000 potential)
July 18 - SPX 5580p $5. reached $53+! ($5000 —> $53000 potential)
July 17 - SPX 5540c $2. reached $16! ($2000 —> $16000 potential)
July 16 - SPX 5660c $2. reached $10! ($2000 —> $10000 potential)
July 15 - SPX 5650c $1. reached $4! ($1000 —> $4000 potential)
July 11 - SPX 5600p $2. reached $23! ($2000 —> $23000 potential)
July 09 - Credit Sell SPX 5590/5595 bear calls 2.30-2.50 stops at 2.60 ( $2500 premium collected per 5k position risking $300)
July 08 - AVGO 1800c 13( $1300—> $2250 potential)
July 08 - SPX 5560p 2.50 stops 2.30 ( $2500—> $5000 potential)
July 08 - TSLA 270c 4.50 target 7.50 ( $4500—> $7600 potential)
July 03 - SPX 5520 2.5 ($2500—> $18000 potential)
July 02 - TSLA 225c 3.5 ($3500—> $8500 potential)
July 02 - SPX 5500c 2.50 ($2500 —> $10000 potential)
July 02 - SPX 5470 Bull Puts 2.50 ($2500 credit collected)
July 01 - closed TSLA Swing $2.65—> $12.00
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
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Trade Recap for Thurs Sep 26
GOLD BOLD ITALIC = price action signal
GOLD REGULAR = action to take/taken
GREEN REGULAR = trades I should have taken
SPY / SPX
Overall this was a textbook short. 2 level gap up reversal! Guys learn the process and system and trust that the levels / targets will come.
Make sure you lock profits on a 2 level move and leave runners if you think more will come with stops in place.
I has so much profit over night and I broke my take profit rules yesterday. Normally I was lock in gains from $2 at $10 and $12, but I wanted to stop at 4 or get 18
Net result - a 75% reduction in profit by not following my own process and being greedy. (I only did this yolo because I was playing with profits, but still it was a waste)
Getting multiple 10x trades can make you emotional and greedy. Thats what happened to me. But I risked profits I didn’t risk original capital on the greed! Remember to always protect your capital.
TSLA
As expected we got profit taking on rumor + gap up. an dipped back to 252/254 for a reload long. Lets see if TSLA clears 270 next week.
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Education - How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows/failed breakdown reversal
Join at vwap mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Education - Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Let me know in the comments if you have questions or would like to see examples, I’ll share them.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Friday Sept 27
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
Overall, I’m still in bull camp, but will initially look for some profit taking on this gap up. Watch out if bid volume comes in and we start breaking highs!