JPM collar trade. Will SPY rollover today? Trade ideas for Monday Sept 30, 2024
JPM collar trade. Will SPY rollover today? Trade ideas for Monday Sept 30, 2024
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Good morning traders!
Hope you all had a great weekend. I spent most of it working on the latest algo signals to provide the Playbook based alerts in Edge. What does that mean, I’m moving toward incorporating my 2 to 3 core trade setups to scan for stocks that align with those rules and alert them. The big challenge is that many times a single trade setup can offer 2 to 3 entries before the trade is done. Figure out how to track and plan for that behaviour within the context of the Playbook will is what I need to figure out. Check out the Trade Review for Friday to see what I mean.
I was proud of dip using Edge to plan SPX puts on Friday. This was the plan he generated using Edge. While it did dip to 1.8 before end of day, it did NOT hit the stop and it hit T1 and T2 targets!
Friday Price Action and Monday Premarket Action
Every pop and gap up has been sold in recent days and its made us a killing. Friday’s SPY idea was spot on . I said if 574 rejects expect 571 to be tested — and that is EXACTLY what happened. SPX 5750 gave a $5 to $22 opportunity while SPX 5740p gave a $2 to $14 opportunity.
My original game plan was for a push and fail on 573-573.50 to start a short. Last night I mentioned to members that I like SPX 5755/5760 bear calls for $2.. This morning they are around 0.70.
The action this morning is week. I had been saying that if 570.50 and 569 breaks, Im looking for downside. Bulls need to reclaim 571/571.50 to keep upside alive.
I like yolo on SPX 5650 for today and 5600p for Friday if we break support.
Let’s review Friday’s trade action and then get into ideas for today.
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Let’s review the action in SPY and go over ideas for today.
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Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
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2024 Alert Leaderboard
Here's a look at some of the potential gains achieved through our entry alerts:
Sep 27 - SPX 5740p $2.50 → $14 ($2500 —> 14000 potential)
Sep 27 - TSLA 260c $0.25 → $0.80 ($250 —> 800 potential)
Sep 26 - SPX 5730p $2 → $8 ($2000 —> 8000 potential)
Sep 26 - SPX 5730p $2.30 → $12 ($2300 —> 12000 potential)
Sep 25 - SPX 5760c $1.50 (swing) → ? Currently $16 ($1500 —> $17000 potential) (Interactive Brokers lets you trade SPX options overnight)
Sep 25 - SPX 5730c $1 —> 4.10 ($1000 —> $4100 potential)
Sep 25 - SPX 5720p $3 —> 10.63 ($3000 → $10630 potential)
Sep 24/25 - PDD 110c 1.25 (swing) —> 14 ($1250→ $14000 potential)
Sep 24 - PDD 110c 1.25 —> 4.50 ($1250→ $4500 potential)
Sep 24 - SPX 5720c 4.20 —> 15 ($4200→ $16800 potential)
Sep 20 - CRWD 295c 0.25 —> 5 ($2500→ $50000 potential)
Sep 19 - SPX 5730/35 bear calls $4 —> 0 ($collect $4000 premium risking $500)
Sep 18 - SPX 5650/55 bear calls $4.50 —> 0 ($collect $4500 premium risking $500)
Sep 18 - SPX 5670/75 bear calls $1.50 —> 0 ($collect $1500 premium risking $500)
Sep 17 - SPX 5630p $3.50 —> 20 ($3500 → $20000 potential)
Sep 16 - SPX 5600p $3 → 10.50 ( $3000 → $10500 potential )
Sep 11 - SPX 5500c $0.50 → 60 ( $1000 → $120000 potential )
Sep 11 - SPX 5450c $4.5 → 110 ( $4500 → $110000 potential )
Sep 11 - SPX 5400p $2.75 → 14 ( $2750 → $14000 potential )
Sep 10 - SPX 5450p $3.50 → 18 ( $3500 → $18000 potential )
Sep 09 - SPX 5450p $2.35 → 8 ( $2350 → $8000 potential )
Sep 09 - NVDA 102p $1.35 → 2.15 ( $1350 → $2100 potential )
Sep 06 - SPX 5430p $3 → 29.60 ( $3000 → $29600 potential )
Sep 06 - SPX 5430p $8 → 29.60 ( $8000 → $29600 potential )
Sep 06 - SPX 5450c 0.30 → 1.70 ( $3000 → $17000 potential )
Sep 06 - TSLA 220p 0.60 → 7 ( $600 → $7000 potential )
Sep 06 - NVDA 102p 0.20 —> 1.50 ( $2000 → $15000 potential )
Sep 05 - TSLA 230c 2.30 → 7 ( $2300 → $7000 potential )
Sep 05 - SPX 5620p 6 → 37 ( $6000 → $37000 potential )
Sep 05 - SPX 5480p 0.5 (dipped to 0.22) → 5.20 ( $1000 → $10000 potential )
Sep 04 - SPX 5630p 6 → 26 ( $6000 → $26000 potential )
Sep 03 - SPX 5630p 0.20 (dipped to 0.75) ( $750 → $19000 potential )
Sep 03 - SPX 5555p 4.50 → 46 ( $4500 → $46000 potential )
Sep 03 - NVDA 110p 1.4 —> 4.4 (1400 → 4400 potenial)
Sep 03 - UVXY 25c 1.2 —> 5.4 ( $1200 → $5400 potential)
Aug 30 - SPX 5640c 0.20 (dipped to 0.30) —> 14 ($3000 → $140000 potential)
Aug 29 - SPX 5650c 3.50 —> 6 ($3500 → $6500 potential)
Aug 29 - MSFT 420c 1.30 —> 4 ($1300 → $4000 potential)
Aug 28 - SPX 5560p 1 —> 8.70 ($1000 → $8700 potential)
Aug 28 - SPX 5560p 1 —> 8.70 ($1000 → $8700 potential)
Aug 28 - SPX 5580p 1.75 —> 21 ($1750 → $21000 potential)
Aug 27-28 - PDD 95p 0.75 → $7 ($750 → $7000 potential) *swing trade
Aug 27 - SPX 5620c 4.50 → $19 ($4500 → $19500 potential)
Aug 27 - PDD 95p 0.75 → $1.66 ($750 → $1660 potential) *swing still in play
Aug 26 - PDD 100P $1.50 → $6.50 ($1500 → $6500 potential)
Aug 23 - SPX 5600p $7 → 38 ($7000 → $38000 potential)
Aug 22 - SPX 5600p $7 → 38 ($7000 → $38000 potential)
Aug 21 - META 535c $3 → 8.50 ($3000 → $8500 potential)
Aug 20 - SPX 5600p $4.50 → 15 ($4500 → $18000 potential)
Aug 20 - SPX 5580p $2 → 7 ($2000 → $7000 potential)
Aug 19 - SPX 5600c $0.4 → 8.25 ($400 → $8250 potential)
Aug 15 - SMCI 600c (swing) $2 → 38 ($2000 → $38000 potential)
Aug 15 - SPX 5540c 0.50 —> 3.50 ($500 → $3500 potential)
Aug 14 - SPX 5400p 5.50 → 10 ($5500 → $10000 potential)
Aug 14 - SPX 5450c 4 → 10 ($4000 → $10000 potential)
Aug 14 - SPX 5450c 1.50 → 10 ($1500 → $10000 potential)
Aug 14 - SPX 5460c 0.20 → 3 (0.10 entry goal, took small 0.20) ($200 → $3000 potential)
Aug 13 - SMCI 600c swing $2.5 ($2500 → $10500 potential)
Aug 13 - SPX 5400p 17 stops 15 ($1700 —> $2300 potential)
Aug 12 - SPX5350c $8 stops 7 ($8000 → $25000 potential)
Aug 12 - SPX5340c $0.5 ($500 → $4500 potential)
Aug 09 - NVDA107c $0.2 stops .10 ($2000 → $7000 potential)
Aug 09 - LLY900c $3.50 stops 1.50 ($3500 → $11500 potential)
Aug 07 - SPX 5280p $10 stops 8 ($1000 → $8000+ potential)
Aug 07 - SPX 5200p $1 stops 0.5 ($1000 → $7000+ potential)
Aug 07 - NVDA 100p $0.8 stops 0.4 ($800 → $3300+ potential)
Aug 06 - SPX 5250c $10 stops 8 ($1000 —> $6000+potential)
Aug 06 - SPX 5250p $1.5 stops 0.75($1500 —> $13000+potential)
Aug 05 - SPX 5300c $3.50 stops 2.50 ($3500 —> $11000 +potential)
Aug 02 - SPX 5350p $5.50 (overnight swing from Aug 01) ($5500 —> $45000 +potential)
Aug 01 - SPX 5480p $4.50 ($4500 —> $65000 potential)
July 31 - SPX 5520c $12 ($1200 —> $3390 potential)
July 30 - SPX 5430p $2.50 ($2500 —> $30000 potential)
July 30 - SPX 5400p $2 ($2000 —> $10000 potential)
July 30 - TSLA 220p $1.50 ($1500 —> $5000 potential)
July 30 - SPX 5450c $0.20 ($200 —> $5000 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5450p $4.50 ($4500 —> $16000 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5460p $0.20 ($200 —> $1100 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5470p $1.5 ($1500 —> $8000 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5480c credit sell - collect $2700 risk $500
July 29 - SPX 5400p $2 out $6 ($2000 —> $6000 potential)
July 26 - SPX 5400p $2 out $6 ($2000 —> $6000 potential)
July 26 - SPX 5450c $4 out $12 reached 15.50 ($4000 —> $15500 potential)
July 25 - SPX 5450c $1, $1.50, and $1.75. target $10. reached $10! ($1000 —> $10000 potential)
July 25 - SPX 5450c $5. reached $41.70! ($5000 —> $41700 potential)
July 22 - CRWD 240p $1.7. reached $3.5! ($1700 —> $3500 potential)
July 22 - SPX 5580c $0.5. reached $3.3! ($500 —> $3300 potential)
July 19 - SPX 5500p $2. reached $12! ($2000 —> $12000 potential)
July 18 - SPX 5580p $5. reached $53+! ($5000 —> $53000 potential)
July 17 - SPX 5540c $2. reached $16! ($2000 —> $16000 potential)
July 16 - SPX 5660c $2. reached $10! ($2000 —> $10000 potential)
July 15 - SPX 5650c $1. reached $4! ($1000 —> $4000 potential)
July 11 - SPX 5600p $2. reached $23! ($2000 —> $23000 potential)
July 09 - Credit Sell SPX 5590/5595 bear calls 2.30-2.50 stops at 2.60 ( $2500 premium collected per 5k position risking $300)
July 08 - AVGO 1800c 13( $1300—> $2250 potential)
July 08 - SPX 5560p 2.50 stops 2.30 ( $2500—> $5000 potential)
July 08 - TSLA 270c 4.50 target 7.50 ( $4500—> $7600 potential)
July 03 - SPX 5520 2.5 ($2500—> $18000 potential)
July 02 - TSLA 225c 3.5 ($3500—> $8500 potential)
July 02 - SPX 5500c 2.50 ($2500 —> $10000 potential)
July 02 - SPX 5470 Bull Puts 2.50 ($2500 credit collected)
July 01 - closed TSLA Swing $2.65—> $12.00
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
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Trade Recap for Friday Sep 27
GOLD BOLD ITALIC = price action signal
GOLD REGULAR = action to take/taken
GREEN REGULAR = trades I should have taken
SPY / SPX
This played out like expected but I didn’t have confidence to hold size. We nailed the entry up at 574. and by the time it finally got to 572.50 it only up 75%. So I took 70% off and left 30% ride for 571 target. (basically covered my risk)
After some premium decay we did get reload opportunities on the back tests of 572.50.
Let’s go over the Entry Points and why:
1 - 574 predicted rejection
2 - Lower high under the peach line (10:30 level)
3 - Rejected VWAP
4 - 572.50 back test
5 - 572.50 back test and lower high
Learn to see the larger trend. after 572.50 failed, it back tested and bids likely dont show up until 571 or less comes. That is how the levels work. It isn’t always perfect but if you wait for key levels you can avoid lots of draw down and headaches!
Running out of time this morning so that is it for Review.
PS: The Reversal Playbook Algo signaled the short at 574 AND the long under 571!! Way to go code!
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Education - How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows/failed breakdown reversal
Join at vwap mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Education - Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Let me know in the comments if you have questions or would like to see examples, I’ll share them.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Monday Sept 30
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
Market looks super weak to me but this could be a failed breakdown reversal setup.
Let’s see what market says after the first hour.
This is end of quarter so today could be wild or it could be pinned. Be prepared to both situations. (Be ready to walk away if no volume/trend, but also be prepared for high volume trend if it comes)