IWM and SPY go red as QQQ at highs and green week. PLTR AXON MSTR join Nasdaq 100. Trade Ideas for Monday Dec 16, 2024
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Good morning traders ! Hope you had a good weekend.
I spent the weekend coding and revamping how my playbooks and algos run. It was too rigid and I needed more flexibility to define the various scenarios and special case/behaviors that lead to our payouts. Needs a lot of testing so if you are an expert it created automated tests for python, please reach out.
I’m super proud of these 2 ideas it generated:
In this one, I need to analyze more. I was targeting 395, and yet the algo chose 383.50 for T2 and the low turned out to be 373. That said the fact it identified 50 points to capture out of 70 point move is amazing while waiting for confirmation signals. The first warning of potential short entry came 10 points higher. at 442. so I need to figure out when to share these heads ups vs them being too much noise.
The neat thing is the targeting on the dip on AVGO on Friday. I was net bullish on AVGO, my next problem to tackle is how can I use the target from the short idea as a possible level to target for an entry for an upside swing entry?
What is even wilder…. Check out the low from that target. It wasn’t even one of the levels I gave it.
Friday feels like so long ago but let review the highlights
Friday Highlights
AVGO - big gap up after e/r, dipped and went higher
SPY - consolidated all day
TSLA - hits my 435+ target! :) (we took 420c for $2!)
ADBE - dropped to under 460 (we took 470p for under $1!)
Monday Premarket Highlights
AVGO - gaps up
TSLA - gaps up over 440
MSTR - gaps up on inclusion to nasdaq 100 while btc hit 106k
PLTR - gaps up on inclusion to nasdaq 100
SMCI - gapping down on reports of tapping Evercore to raise capital
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Introduction (for New Readers)
Welcome to my blog on Two Hour Trading—your daily source for market insights and trading opportunities. Here, you’ll find comprehensive market analysis, educational lessons, and trade ideas to help you excel in trading, all while spending less than two hours a day.
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Subscribers receive daily market analysis updates, educational content, and up to three trade ideas each morning based on real-life examples and my trading approach.
NOTE: screenshots from chat are from Edge Trade Planner. A platform available to THT PRO members. Join Us for live commentary and planning. Note my goal is to actively trade less than 2 hours a day finding 1 to 4 great trades a day.
What is Two Hour Trading?
Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Q4 Alert Leaderboard
Here's a look at some of the potential gains achieved through our entry alerts:
Dec 13 - AVGO 225p 0.30 → 2 ($600 to $4000 potential)
Dec 13 - TSLA 420c (swing) $2 → 16 ($2000 to $16000 potential)
Dec 13 - ADBE 470p (swing) $0.80 → 10.50 ($800 to $10500 potential)
Dec 12 - ADBE 470p $0.80 → 3.50 ($800 to $3500 potential)
Dec 12 - SPX 4070p $3 → 18 ($3000 to $18000 potential)
Dec 12 - SPX 4060p $2 → 14 ($2000 to $14000 potential)
Dec 11 - TSLA 420c $3.50 → 10.50 ($3500 to $10500 potential)
Dec 10 - SPX 6050p $2 → 19.50 ($2000 to $19500 potential)
Dec 10 - SPX 6045p $2 → 15 ($2000 to $15000 potential)
Dec 10 - SPX 6060/65 bear calls. $1.90. ($1900 premium collected)
Dec 10 - TSLA 420c swing from Monday $1.70 → 5.70 (lock 50%)
Dec 9 - SPX 6060p $2 → 9.50 ($2000 to $9500 potential)
Dec 9 - TSLA 400c Dec swing close $2 → 20.90 ($2000 to $20900 potential)
Dec 5 - SPX 6080p $1.20 → 7.50 ($1200 to $7500 potential)
Dec 5 - SPX 6090p $4 → 16 ($400 to $1600 potential)
Dec 4 - SPX 6080c $1 → 9.50 ($1000 to $9500 potential)
Dec 4 - SPX 6060/55 bull puts $1.6 → 0 ($1600 premium collected)
Dec 3 - SPX 6040/35 bull puts $2.50 → 0 ($2500 premium collected)
Dec 3 - SPX 6050c $1 → 3.8 (1000 → $3800 potential)
Dec 2 - SPX 6045/40 bull puts $2.50 → 0 ($2500 premium collected)
Nov 29 - SMCI 31p 0.1 → 0.65 ($1000→6500 potential)
Nov 22 - SMCI swing update $28c 0.60 →$6.40 ($600→6400 potential)
Nov 22 - SPX5960/55 bull puts $4.50, $3.50 → collect 4500 and 3500 premium risk 2k to make 8k.
Nov 21 - MSTR 410p $10→ 50
Nov 21 - SMCI swing update $28c 0.60 → 2.80!
Nov 20 - SPX 5900c $0.50 (dipped to 0.70 after alert) target $16.1 + went 17+ ($800 → $17200 potential)
Nov 20 - SPX 5860/55 bull puts (collect $2500 premium)
Nov 20 - SPX 5890/85 bull puts (collect $4500 premium on $500 risk)
Nov 20 - SPX 5900c $0.50 (dipped to 0.70 after alert) target $16.1 + went 17+ ($800 → $17200 potential)
Nov 19 - /ES 5860 scoop now at 5920+
Nov 19 - SPX 5920c 1.25 → 8 ($1250 → 8000 potential)
Nov 19 - SPX 5880c $3 (only dipped to 5.50) target $30+ went 40+
Nov 14- SPX 5870/65 bull puts 4500 credit → 0 ($4500 credit premium potential)
Nov 14- SPX 5870c 1.20 → 5.50 ($1250 → 5500 potential)
Nov 14- SPX 5870p 5.50 → 18.60 ($5500 → 18600 potential)
Nov 14 - TSLA 350c Jan 25 $16.50 → 22.50 → ? swing
Nov 13- SPX 6000c 0.35 → 3.7 ($350 → 3700 potential)
Nov 13 - SPX 6000c 0.35→ 2.2 ($350 → 2200 potential)
Nov 13 - SPX 6000p 2.5 → 18.40 ($2500 → $18400 potential)
Nov 14 - SHOP 120c 12/20 (swing) $2 → $4 → ? could hit 20-30 by next month.
Nov 12- SPX 5990c 0.80 → 11 ($800 → 11000 potential)
Nov 12- SPX 5980/5975 bull puts 4.2→0 (collect $4200 premium risk 800)!
Nov 11 - SPX 6010/6015 bear calls 3 → 0 (collect $3000 premium)
Nov 11 - SPX 6000/5995 bull puts 2.7 → 0 (collect $2700 premium)
Nov 11 - SPX 6000p 1.50 (dipped to 1.90) 2.50 → 14 ($2500 → $14000 potential)
Nov 11 - SPX 6000c $1 → 2.50 ($1000 → 2500 potential)
Nov 8 - SPX 6000/6005 bear calls 3.2 → 0 (collect $3200 premium)
Nov 8 - TSLA 300c 2.25 → 28 ($2250 → $28000)
Nov 7 - TSLA 300c 2.2 → 5 ($2200 → $5000)
Nov 7 - SPX 5970c $2.50 → 6 ($2500 → $6000)
Nov 6 - SPX 5940c $0.20 → $2 ($200 → $2000 potential) in 3min
Nov 6 - SPX 5930c $2 → 8 ($2000 - $8000 potential) in 10min
Nov 6 - SPX 5920c 4.25 → 17.10 ($4250 → $17100 potential) in 2hr
Nov 6 - SPX 5880p 7 stops 6 → 13.50 ($7000 → $13500 potential) 5R in 30min
Nov 5 - SPX 5775c 1.50 → $10 ($1500 → $10000 potential)
Nov 5 - SPX 5765p 4 → $9 ($4000 → $9000 potential)
Nov 5 - /ES long $5825 in ah → $5954 ($6450/contract potential)
Nov 4 - TSLA 250c 4.50 → 8 ($4500 → $8000 potential)
Nov 4 - SPX 5830c 0.30 → 0.85 ($3000 → $8500 potential)
Nov 1 - SPX 5770c 4.50 → 12 ($4500 → $12000 potential)
Nov 1 - SPX 5740p 2.50 → 16 ($2500 → $16000 potential)
Oct 31 - SPX 5830p 3.50 → 30 ($3500 → $30000 potential)
Oct 31 - SPX 5700p 1.50 → 5 ($1500 → 5000 potential)
Oct 31 - SPX 5830c 3.3 → 8.50 ($3300 → 8500 potential)
Oct 30 - SPX 5860c 0.80 → 3.80 ($800 → 3800 potential)
Oct 30 - SPX 5830p 1.75 → 17.50 ($1750 → 17500 potential)
Oct 29 - MSTR 270c $.6.50 stops 5.50 → 9.8 ($6500 → $9800 potential) 3R trade
Oct 29 - SPY 5840c $1.00 (dipped 1.80) → $8.80 ($1800 → $8800 potenital)
Oct 29 - SPY 5850c $1.00 → $2.20 ($1000 → $2200 potenital)
Oct 28 - SPY 5840c $0.50 → $1.80 ($500 → $1800 potenital)
Oct 25 - QQQ 499p $0.80 → $4.50 ($800 → $4500 potential)
Oct 25 - TSLA 265c $1.25 → $4.65 ($1250 → 4650 potential)
Oct 24 - SPX 5770p $2 → $6.2 ($2000 → $6200 potential)
Oct 24 - SPX 5810c $0.20 → $2.05 ($2000 → $20500 potential)
Oct 24 - SPX 5810/5805 Bull puts for $3.20 went to -> 0.12 (collect 90%+ premium)
Oct 23 - SPX 5790p $3 → $27.80 ($3000 → $27800 potential)
Oct 23 - SPX 5830c $6 → 11.20 5R ($6000 → $11000 potential)
Oct 23 - TSM 205c 0.55 → 1.55 ($550 → 1555 potential)
Oct 23 - MSTR 217.5c $3 → ? 20+ (swing). sold 50% at 6 for 100% gain!
Oct 23 -NFLX 750p $3.50 → 9.20 ($3500 → $9200 potential)
Oct 22 - SPX 5850c $3 (dipped to 1) ran to $14.80 on Round 1 ($3000 → $14800 potential)
Oct 22 - SPX 5850c $3 ran to $11 on Round 2 ($3000 → $11000 potential)
Oct 21 - SPX 5850c $1.50 ran to $5.6 on Round 1 ($1500 → $5600 potential)
Oct 21 - SPX 5850c $0.45 ran to $4.8 on Round 2 ($450 → $4800 potential)
Oct 21 - NFLX 775c $4 ran to $9.52 ($4000 → $9520 potential)
Oct 18- MSTR 210c $1 → $8.50 ($1000 —> $8500 potential)
Oct 17 - NFLX 705 commons buy after earning earnings. Exit 761. $56 Dollars!
Oct 17- SPX 5870c $1.80 → $7 ($1800 —> $7000 potential)
Oct 15- SPX 5800p $2.20 → $5.50 ($2200 —> $5500 potential)
Oct 15 - SMCI 50c $0.60→ $1.85 ($600 —> $1850 potential)
Oct 15 - SPX 5830c $4 → $18 ($4000 —> $18000 potential)
Oct 14 - SPX 5870c $0.45 → $4.4 ($450 —> $4400 potential)
Oct 14 - MSTR 210p 4.50 →$13.7 ($4500 → 13700 potential)
Oct 14 - PDD 135p(swing) 1.50 → $12 ($1500 → $12000 potential)
Oct 11 - SPX 5810c $5 → $14 ($5000 —> $14000 potential)
Oct 11 - SPX 5805p $1 → $13.50 ($1000 —> $13500 potential)
Oct 10 - SPX 5800c $2 → $6 ($2000 —> $6000 potential)
Oct 10 - SPX 5750p $0.50 → $3.40 ($500 —> $3400 potential)
Oct 09 - SPX 5775c $2.5 (thanks JY!) → $22 ($2500 —> $22000 potential)
Oct 09 - SPX 5800c $0.5 (dipped 0.20) → $2.45 ($500 —> $2450 potential)
Oct 09 - SPX 5790c $1 (dipped 0.70) → $8.65 ($1000 —> $8650 potential)
Oct 09 - SPX 5790c Round 2 $3.5 → $7.5 ($3500 —> $7500 potential)
Oct 08 - SPX 5750c $1 (dipped 0.70) → $2.30 ($1000 —> $8400 potential)
Oct 08 - SPX 5750c $2 (dipped 1.70) → $8.40 ($2000 —> $8400 potential)
Oct 08 - MSFT 415c $3 risk 0.20 —> 4.10 ($3000 → $4100) 5R!
Oct 07 - SPX 5720c $1 (dipped 1.20) → $3.30 ($1200 —> $3300 potential)
Oct 07 - SPX 5690p $1.50 (dipped 1.55) → $10.50 ($1550 —> $10500 potential)
Oct 07 - PDD 145p $2.35 (swing) → 5
Oct 04 - SPX 5700p $5 → $15.50 ($5000 —> $15500 potential)
Oct 04 - SPX 5730c $6 → $23.90 ($6000 —> $23900 potential)
Oct 04 - SPX 5740c $1.50 → $14 ($1500 —> $14000 potential)
Oct 04 - SPX 5750c $1 → $5 ($1000 —> $5000 potential)
Oct 04 - OXY 55c $0.35 → $0.80 ($3500 —> $8000 potential)
Oct 04 - META 595c $0.12 → 1.90 ($1200 —> $19000 potential)
Oct 03 - SPX 5655p $1 → $5 ($1000 —> $5000 potential)
Oct 03 - SPX 5690c $2 → $14.20($2000 → $14200 potential)
Oct 03 - SPX 5695c $1-2 → $9.80 ($1500 → $9800 potential)
Oct 03 - NVDA 125c $0.55 (swing)
Oct 03 - XOM 123c $0.22 (swing)
Oct 03 - OXY 55c $0.33 (swing)
Oct 03 - PDD 155c $1.20 (swing)
Oct 03 - SPX 5720/25 bear calls $2 —> 0 (risk $500 to collect $2000 premium)
Oct 02 - SPX 5700p $2.50 → $8.50 ($2500 —> $8500 potential)
Oct 02 - SPX 5720/25 bear calls $2.50 —> 0 (risk $500 to collect $2500 premium)
Oct 01 - SPX 5720p $3 → $12 ($3000 —> $12000 potential)
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
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Trade Recap for Friday Dec 13
GOLD BOLD ITALIC = price action signal
WHITE REGULAR = action to take/taken
GREEN REGULAR = trades I should have taken
SPY / SPX
skipping due to time constraints.
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Education - How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows/failed breakdown reversal
Join at vwap mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Education - Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Let me know in the comments if you have questions or would like to see examples, I’ll share them.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Monday Dec 16
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
Let’s see if this week follows seasonality and we rally