IRAN Attacks Israel, SPY gapping up, Bonds are up, Making sense of it all and Day Trading Ideas for Apr 15
Reminder: File your taxes today
Good morning traders!
What a wild Friday on war news and reaction over weekend. I was somewhat hoping for a gap down to get long, under the thesis of as long as Israel is talked down, Iran more or less did its propaganda and face saving action and has implied does not intend to take further action. This would imply a return to normalcy eventually. However any turmoil that could put supply chains at risk also raises more inflation woes.
While the BTFD regime appear to be intact, it does feel that upside could be limited and that there are more signals to go risk-off. Given this my focus this week will likely be more to sell credit via bear calls and continue to hawk for failed breakdown reversals for squeeze long and take most profits after a 1.5-2pt move.
We’ve got a lot on our plate so let’s get into what happened on Friday and then how I plan to profit today.
PS. Powell speaks tomorrow at 1:10pm ET so consider how big money may position ahead of that today.
Introduction (for New Readers)
Welcome to my blog on Two Hour Trading, your daily source for market insights and trading opportunities. In this blog, I will provide you with a comprehensive analysis of the market, educational lessons, and trade ideas to help you stay ahead in your trading journey and best of all doing it less than two hours a day.
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Subscribers to this blog will receive daily updates on market analysis, educational content, and up to three trade ideas each morning, all based on real-life examples and my personal approach to trading.
NOTE: screenshots from chat are from Edge Trade Planner. A platform available to THT PRO members. Join Us for live commentary and planning. Note my goal is to actively trade less than 2 hours a day finding 1 to 4 great trades a day.
What is Two Hour Trading?
It’s my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to setup. Key benefits:
High Quality trades with great reward vs risk
Avoid Overtrading and losses from it
Trading to Win vs Trading to Not Lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Alert Leaderboard
(I’ve decided to include a leaderboard so you can see what potential the 2 Hour Trading System has)
The following is based on entry alerts.
Apr 11 - SPX 5180/5185 bear calls - Entry $2.50 ($2500 premium potential)
Apr 10 - SPX 5180/5185 bear calls - Entry $2.50 ($2500 premium potential)
Apr 10 - SPX 5170c - Entry 0.50 ($500 → $5000 potential)
Apr 9 - SPX 5185/5180 bull puts - Entry $3 ($3000 premium potential)
Apr 9 - SPX 5205c - Entry $0.50 ($500→ $6000 potenitl)
Apr 8 - SPX 5225/5230 bear calls - Entry $1.20 ($1200 premium potential)
Apr 8 - SPX 5200/5195 bear puts - Entry $0.10 ($1000→ $8000 potential)
Apr 4 - SPX 5250p - Entry $4 ($4000→ $100k potential)
Apr 4 - SPX 5180p - Entry $1.30 ($1300 > $32k potential)
Apr 3 - SPX 5175/5170 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
Apr 2 - SPX 5175/5170 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
Apr 2 - SPX 5205/5200 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
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Friday’s Price Action (Education)
You don't try to make $100,000 ...You don’t start by saying, I’m going to make the biggest most profitable trade and turn $1000 into $100,000 and fix all my bad trades before.
You say, I’m going to plan and execute 1 trade as perfectly as I can today. You do that every single day, and soon you'll have a $100,000 and likely much more!
Friday in theory should have been a gap up or weak open, r/g move, but instead it was a failed breakout over 518. I was looking for 518 or at worst a 516.60 dip and rip at first, however in premarket that support failed and changed the overall plan/story.
SPY/SPX
Review the chart about to recognize how to plan the trade and target. First leg gave 512 perfectly. and then for the second trade, we got a clean signal to short.
Notice the peachline and double top and the break back below 513.50 a second time. That was the time to sell bear calls and then take puts targeting 510.
You will notice that the THT process focusses on capturing 1 to 2 levels moves for majority of our profits and then let the runners do their thing.
As you use the levels more, you will learn to have comfort waiting for profits or levels to come.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Monday Apr 15
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Market has gapped up since Israel has not escalated (yet) and Iran does not appear to be taking further action. The gap can also be due to oversold conditions on Friday.
I will be watching the same: SPY, NVDA, AMD