How will SPY, NVDA, TSLA react to CPI today?? Plan for Tuesday Feb 13

ARM short squeeze idea and alerts deliver over 1000% gains!

Feb 13, 2024

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Good morning traders. Will CPI reports trigger a second red day and the start of February profit/selling I was looking for or does marking BTFD again and rallies green?

Thats the question on everyone’s mind and I’ll discuss my plan.

As you know I’m heavily devoted to being process oriented and so before I get into the trade ideas for today, let’s go over yesterday big trade payers and price action.

I have over 10 years of experience trading momentum and without a doubt am sharing tips and tricks worth tens of thousands of dollars so pay attention to the education section.

Introduction (for New Readers)

Welcome to my blog on Two Hour Trading, your daily source for market insights and trading opportunities. In this blog, I will provide you with a comprehensive analysis of the market, educational lessons, and trade ideas to help you stay ahead in your trading journey and best of all doing it less than two hours a day.

What Subscribers Get

Subscribers to this blog will receive daily updates on market analysis, educational content, and up to three trade ideas, all based on real-life examples and my personal approach to trading.

NOTE: screenshots from chat are from Edge Trade Planner. A platform available to my THT PRO and ELITE members. (I will open up new memberships in mid Feb)

What is Two Hour Trading?

It’s my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to setup. Key benefits:

High Quality trades with great reward vs risk
Avoid Overtrading and losses from it
Trading to Win vs Trading to Not Lose
Stacking the deck in your favor

2024 Alert Leaderboard

(I’ve decided to include a leaderboard so you can see what potential the 2 Hour Trading System has)

The following is based on entry alerts.

Feb 12 - ARM 180c. Entry $1.20 - High after $14.10 ($1200 → $14000 potential)
Feb08 - ARM 100c. Entry $5 - High after $27.50. ($5000 → $27500 potential)
Feb07 - TSLA 185c. Entry $2.53 - Hight after $5.60 ($2530 —> $5600 potential)
Feb05 - SPX 4940c. Entry $3 - High after $16.60 ($3000 → $16,600 potential)
Feb02 - AMD 180c. Entry 0.15 - High after $1 ($1500 —> $10000 potential)
Jan 29 - SPX 4910c. Entry $1 - High after $20 ($1000 —> $20000 potential)
Jan 26 - NFLX 570c. Entry $0.50 - High after $9.85 ($500 → $9850 potential)
Jan 25 - TSLA 185p. Entry $1.5 - High after $6.3 ($1500 → $6300 potential)
Jan 24 - SPX 4890p Entry $1.50 - High after $22 ($1500 → $22000 potential)
Jan 24 - SPX 4880p Entry $0.50 - High after $12 ($500 → $6000 potential)
Jan 17 - SPX 4740c Entry $0.20 - High after $2.80 ($200→ $2800 potential)
Jan 17 - SPX 4740c Entry $1.20 - High after $12 ($1200→ $12000 potential)

**Past Performance is not indicative of future results

Monday’s Price Action (Education)

ARM short squeeze

Before you enter a trade you should have a thesis. Yesterday I had expected consolidation and I wrote in yesterday I wanted to get long for a swing off the 110 level. I figured a next leg up short squeeze was coming this week.

Instead with NVDA and SMCI gapping up, we also saw ARM take out Friday highs. I was focused on TSLA and NVDA trades. Let’s get back to my thesis.

Last week I mentioned that ARM had 90% of the float is locked up. What happens when the shorts load up on and new highs come? Some will go long and some will have to cover, but there is an imbalance between available sellers and the number of buyers.

I already had it in the back of my mind that 180-200 could come this week. While I missed the entries during the consolidation under 128, as soon as I saw that 128 level clear, I alerted I’m got long for a short squeeze. In that case I took 135c for $5 I believe and mention if the squeeze I think it happening could see 150-500. that means the 135c we should be able to sell for $15+. I then remembered how much OTM money strikes get juiced during wild moves so I should grab a bunch of 180c too!

I’m process centric, and since this was far OTM and immediately sold 50% at 2.40 to eliminate the risk and this has proved successful in my own mental trading to let me be more patient on trades. I alerted sell on 135c from 5→ 20 and the next sells on 180c at $1.20→9 and left runners for final exhaustion.

This was a very fast trade that did 1000% on 180c and 500% on 135c in just under 30 minutes.

I don’t need to be greedy and stay in a trade all day. I need to recognize the price action and then take action. Yes there was risk that 130 break was a fake out.

But if you are process centric with your sizing, it isn’t going to break you if you are wrong, and if you are right, it can grow your account very nicely!

So here are the tips to recongize price action leading to a squeeze/breakout:

Break over previous highs
Back test vwap twice
Each dip has strong reversal wicks
See vwap turn up (that indicates volume is paying more)

See if you can recognize those items in the chart below.

If you want to join the chatroom where I make these alerts that can turn $1000 to $5000, or even $12000. Here is the link to Sign up for THT PRO.

Don’t expect every trade to work nor that there is a big payer every day, but if history is in an indication there at least 3 trade plan alerts/week paying over 500%. A key component of how I trade is my risk management and sizing. If you choose to be a part of the community, make sure you understand how to do that..

SPY

Yesterday I wrote I wanted 500 back tested and I wouldn’t be surprised to get profit taking ahead of CPI. So the plan I made was to come back after morning trades between. 1 and 2pm. (Wish I got back 20 minutes earlier)

SPY did an early rally, and no surprise there given how the rest of market was ripping. I didn’t take a long. I didn’t need to. I had a couple of trades in META and TSLA that paid me the 3R in the first 90min of market and wanted a 500 back test before considering long. So notice that. I didn’t get the dip buy price action I wanted and I don’t want to chase long ahead of CPI and so I waited. I DONT HAVE TO BE IN EVERY LEG OR TRADE.

So you can see the double top that formed after lunch and the quick selling that began. As soon as we broke previous lows, I was ver interested in the short and I started hawking 5030p and 5015p on SPX using the levels I have and Edge Trade Planner.

If you missed the first leg, don’t swat it, once it flushed under vwap, we want the back test of vap that came around 2pm to enter for the second leg move. Remember the second leg is usually the bigger leg on reversal moves.

We nailed the dip buys at 2.50 (I alerted I planned to enter between 2 and 3 when it was at $4 (about 10min before the dip).

Minutes later we got the fast flush hitting all our sell targes and actually getting the the $15 target I wanted. I got the 5015p for 0.50 during that consolidation and sold at 3 and 5 (it hit 6).

We just had a fast 2 level move. I let everyone know I was done at that point. There was a chance of another leg, but I didn’t like risk/reward or the timing.

The price action appeared to be exhaustion after hitting a new high. Let’s see if there is follow through selling and time for a back test/corrective move I’ve been looking for in Feb.

TSLA

Yesterday I wrong that I wanted long as long as 190held and took initial dips long and sold per risk/reward. but then you can see how TSLA couldn’t hold over194 and that it rejected the peach line and vwap at 193.10. once 192 was back tested it had the look that 190 was going to break. I didn’t take the short because I was focused on ARM breakout.

The key take away is TSLA is back under the 9dma and with 190 break lower mid 180s is back on deck and if market gets weak we could see sub 180 again.

Summary Review of Market Price Action

We had nice rallies yesterday, but we got the first hint of selling into strength and possible derisking longs ahead of CPI report today.

Bottom line. If you look back, every dip in market has been bought since December. Bears keep trying to be first in on the reversal short and keep getting crushed.

At some point the dip buy will fail. Its ok to lose when that happens, because one should get excited about the short opportunity developing.

Educational Lessons

From the price action review you should have learned the following:

keep low float stocks on radar for range break.
consider option strikes at the target price for fast move and SELL into the IV spike that comes. If you don’t they can easily goto 0 but in the meantime give 7-10x Rewaard to Risk. (why I took 180c on ARM and 5015p on SPX)
Set sell orders systematically as soon as you enter the trade. Reward that habit/muscle building. Your account will thank you!
Use the levels I provide as a guide.

Trade Ideas - Plan for Tuesday Feb 13

Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.

OK so CPI is here. I’m going to keep today’s post short since it’s hard to gauge what will happen until it does. Overall my process for CPI day is to expect chop and traps and fakeout moves.

Let’s get into the plans…

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