Friday held crucial 528.50 level and broke over 532.50. Upside is back in play. Inflation data on deck this week. Trade ideas for Monday Aug 12, 2024
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Good morning traders!
Hope you had a restful weekend. At the moment, I’m thinking market will be less volatile until a news event/inflation data comes out. For now bulls may start their buying again this week. The question is will inflation data, trigger a stumble or a rally.
I’ll be watching for buy action or sell action near each levels to get a feel
Friday, I expected chop and opportunity and we got both. But you had to be patient for the entries and quick to take profits. The nice thing is that tht THT process works.
Im constantly talking about 3-5R being my core goal, with 10R+ being possible when we got trend and/or range. What is R? It stands for Risk. So 5R means if risking 100, I make 500. Imagine trades that you risk $1000 and make 3000 to 5000. With options it is very possible. IT is also VERY possible to lose more than your R if you don’t honor stops.
In todays blog I’ll focus on examples of R with the trade reviews.
Using some extra confidence I sized bigger and overall I was done by the end of the first hour.. why?
Imagine 37% account growth in 1 hour.
You don’t need to trade all day and many times less than 2 hours a day! Take control of your trading by limiting the times you take action. You can be mentally fresh, prepared, and ready to take action.
Overnight Action:
SPY 532.50 held, and 535 tested in premarket. 532.50 was previous resistance and now turning into support.
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Let’s review yesterday’s trades/signals and then get into ideas for today.
Introduction (for New Readers)
Welcome to my blog on Two Hour Trading—your daily source for market insights and trading opportunities. Here, you’ll find comprehensive market analysis, educational lessons, and trade ideas to help you excel in trading, all while spending less than two hours a day.
What Subscribers Get
Subscribers receive daily market analysis updates, educational content, and up to three trade ideas each morning based on real-life examples and my trading approach.
NOTE: screenshots from chat are from Edge Trade Planner. A platform available to THT PRO members. Join Us for live commentary and planning. Note my goal is to actively trade less than 2 hours a day finding 1 to 4 great trades a day.
What is Two Hour Trading?
Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Alert Leaderboard
Here's a look at some of the potential gains achieved through our entry alerts:
Aug 09 - NVDA107c $0.2 stops .10 ($2000 → $7000 potential)
Aug 09 - LLY900c $3.50 stops 1.50 ($3500 → $11500 potential)
Aug 07 - SPX 5280p $10 stops 8 ($1000 → $8000+ potential)
Aug 07 - SPX 5200p $1 stops 0.5 ($1000 → $7000+ potential)
Aug 07 - NVDA 100p $0.8 stops 0.4 ($800 → $3300+ potential)
Aug 06 - SPX 5250c $10 stops 8 ($1000 —> $6000+potential)
Aug 06 - SPX 5250p $1.5 stops 0.75($1500 —> $13000+potential)
Aug 05 - SPX 5300c $3.50 stops 2.50 ($3500 —> $11000 +potential)
Aug 02 - SPX 5350p $5.50 (overnight swing from Aug 01) ($5500 —> $45000 +potential)
Aug 01 - SPX 5480p $4.50 ($4500 —> $65000 potential)
July 31 - SPX 5520c $12 ($1200 —> $3390 potential)
July 30 - SPX 5430p $2.50 ($2500 —> $30000 potential)
July 30 - SPX 5400p $2 ($2000 —> $10000 potential)
July 30 - TSLA 220p $1.50 ($1500 —> $5000 potential)
July 30 - SPX 5450c $0.20 ($200 —> $5000 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5450p $4.50 ($4500 —> $16000 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5460p $0.20 ($200 —> $1100 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5470p $1.5 ($1500 —> $8000 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5480c credit sell - collect $2700 risk $500
July 29 - SPX 5400p $2 out $6 ($2000 —> $6000 potential)
July 26 - SPX 5400p $2 out $6 ($2000 —> $6000 potential)
July 26 - SPX 5450c $4 out $12 reached 15.50 ($4000 —> $15500 potential)
July 25 - SPX 5450c $1, $1.50, and $1.75. target $10. reached $10! ($1000 —> $10000 potential)
July 25 - SPX 5450c $5. reached $41.70! ($5000 —> $41700 potential)
July 22 - CRWD 240p $1.7. reached $3.5! ($1700 —> $3500 potential)
July 22 - SPX 5580c $0.5. reached $3.3! ($500 —> $3300 potential)
July 19 - SPX 5500p $2. reached $12! ($2000 —> $12000 potential)
July 18 - SPX 5580p $5. reached $53+! ($5000 —> $53000 potential)
July 17 - SPX 5540c $2. reached $16! ($2000 —> $16000 potential)
July 16 - SPX 5660c $2. reached $10! ($2000 —> $10000 potential)
July 15 - SPX 5650c $1. reached $4! ($1000 —> $4000 potential)
July 11 - SPX 5600p $2. reached $23! ($2000 —> $23000 potential)
July 09 - Credit Sell SPX 5590/5595 bear calls 2.30-2.50 stops at 2.60 ( $2500 premium collected per 5k position risking $300)
July 08 - AVGO 1800c 13( $1300—> $2250 potential)
July 08 - SPX 5560p 2.50 stops 2.30 ( $2500—> $5000 potential)
July 08 - TSLA 270c 4.50 target 7.50 ( $4500—> $7600 potential)
July 03 - SPX 5520 2.5 ($2500—> $18000 potential)
July 02 - TSLA 225c 3.5 ($3500—> $8500 potential)
July 02 - SPX 5500c 2.50 ($2500 —> $10000 potential)
July 02 - SPX 5470 Bull Puts 2.50 ($2500 credit collected)
July 01 - closed TSLA Swing $2.65—> $12.00
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
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Friday Recap
Let’s review the trades and price action. Did you take advantage? If not read on an learn how.
SPY/SPX
On Friday I wrote, that 528.50 needed to hold, we dipped right there on the open to get long. And took profits into the spikes above and push into 532.50. It happened to fast to alert the entry unfortunately, but that is why I tech and share process. Many time members enter at better prices than I do.
I had alerted I wanted 5350c for $2. They eventually dipped to 2.50 over lunch. I was at the gym and missed it I did see some members did catch it for a monster rally.
For my trade it was entry 6.50 stops 4.50 so 3R was 12.50. We popped right there within minutes for me to lock in gains. Notice how the contracts bled out and went lower in price even though SPY was consolidating and trending higher. This is because the contracts were juiced. Its also a big reason why i often wait until 10:30 or 11:30 to enter trades. I want the contracts as cheap as possible. When the bids don’t carry contracts to more highs, it often means that they are 2 expensive and there aren’t enough bidders and it may not go where you want. My overall goal on SPX 5350 was the 5368 level. so $18. We more or less spiked to that. Planning and preparing price targets on your options contracts can pay you well!
if you took 5350c for $3 risking 50%. That did an incredible 10R move into $18!
NVDA
On Friday I wrote I wanted 107c if 103.50 held. NVDA dipped right to 103.50. I had alerted I wanted to fill 107c for 0.20. We got that fill and it spiked to 0.7! I wanted to sell for $1+. but this is where and why process is so important.
0.20 risk 0.10. so R = 0.10. 3R and 5R = 0.20+ 0.30 and 0.20+0.50 = 0.50 and 0.70. So I was expecting more, but automatically sold most at 0.60 and 0.5 on the vwap failure to clear. I then reloaded at 0.20 and got stopped at 0.10 on round 2.
so guys here is how that works. Take $2000 and risk $1000. At 0.60-0.70 that was $4-5k in profit! earned in 15 minutes and being systematic trigger profit taking. This is how I collect profit regularly but also how I often miss monster gains. I’ve chosen smaller consistent gains vs monster gains once in awhile. Truth be told, I still think my “smaller consistent” gains are pretty spectacular.
LLY
This was my big payer. They had e/r the day before and I saw the potential for this to hit 915 and maybe 950 if market got nutty.
So we took 900c for $3 and it ran to 11.50-12. Using take profit rules. this paid nicely and the 20% size runners got stopped for just 100% gain. Being systematic in profit taking keeps your account growing, even when targets are not met.
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Education - How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows/failed breakdown reversal
Join at vwap mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Education - Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Let me know in the comments if you have questions or would like to see examples, I’ll share them.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Monday Aug 12
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
Today is a wait and see day for me. I’d like to get short into spikes for some profit taking and possible derisking ahead of inflation data. but I’m also open to go long off major support levels. since we are near resistance, I’ll have to be patient before going long.