Can SPY make all time highs after FOMC minutes? Trade ideas for Wednesday Oct 9, 2024
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Good morning traders!
I decided to launch a small account challenge so if you missed the post be sure to check it out here.
Tuesday’s Price Action
What a day yesterday for planning! I wasn’t sure if we would get gap fill for us to join but there was no dip. we essentially rallied and ran right to the 572 level and then proceeded to base/consolidate all day and giving a failed breakdown reversal opportunity leading to an end of day squeezer almost to 574! That said, the levels were magic again for targeting. If you like to trade SPX, please consider joining THT-PRO to get those levels. You’ll see why in today’s trade review.
We saw a very interesting positioning trade in NVDA yesterday. imho it looked like a large bullish bet.
But I’m fascinated by the possible calendar bear spread on 131/138 while also making a large call bet for next week.
TSLA continues to consolidate.
PDD consolidated most of the day with a slight push. no real surprise there considering the overnight dump.
SMCI dumped so hard and fast at the open yesterday I didn’t get a chance to join the short. 44 needs to hold as support imho and decent risk/reward long spot as long as 42.40 doesn’t break again. Straight up gap up and unload for profit taking.
Wednesday Premarket Action
SPY tested 571.50 overnight and essentially back to flat.
PDD is gapping down again overnight. I’m targeting 125-130 to come. Apparently Chinese officials are not impressed by investor turn out by their stimulus.
NVDA, SMCI and AMD are gapping up again today. I may to start to hawk for possible gap up reversal trades for profit taking scalp soon., For now, focus on dips to join trend, but be mentally prepared to take action when profit taking comes in.
Let’s review the trade signals in SPY and go over ideas for today.
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Introduction (for New Readers)
Welcome to my blog on Two Hour Trading—your daily source for market insights and trading opportunities. Here, you’ll find comprehensive market analysis, educational lessons, and trade ideas to help you excel in trading, all while spending less than two hours a day.
What Subscribers Get
Subscribers receive daily market analysis updates, educational content, and up to three trade ideas each morning based on real-life examples and my trading approach.
NOTE: screenshots from chat are from Edge Trade Planner. A platform available to THT PRO members. Join Us for live commentary and planning. Note my goal is to actively trade less than 2 hours a day finding 1 to 4 great trades a day.
What is Two Hour Trading?
Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Q4 Alert Leaderboard
Here's a look at some of the potential gains achieved through our entry alerts:
Oct 08 - SPX 5750c $1 (dipped 0.70) → $8.40 ($1000 —> $8400 potential)
Oct 08 - SPX 5750c $2 (dipped 1.70) → $8.40 ($2000 —> $8400 potential)
Oct 08 - MSFT 415c $3 risk 0.20 —> 4.10 ($3000 → $4100) 5R!
Oct 07 - SPX 5720c $1 (dipped 1.20) → $3.30 ($1200 —> $3300 potential)
Oct 07 - SPX 5690p $1.50 (dipped 1.55) → $10.50 ($1550 —> $10500 potential)
Oct 07 - PDD 145p $2.35 (swing) → $?
Oct 04 - SPX 5700p $5 → $15.50 ($5000 —> $15500 potential)
Oct 04 - SPX 5730c $6 → $23.90 ($6000 —> $23900 potential)
Oct 04 - SPX 5740c $1.50 → $14 ($1500 —> $14000 potential)
Oct 04 - SPX 5750c $1 → $5 ($1000 —> $5000 potential)
Oct 04 - OXY 55c $0.35 → $0.80 ($3500 —> $8000 potential)
Oct 04 - META 595c $0.12 → 1.90 ($1200 —> $19000 potential)
Oct 03 - SPX 5655p $1 → $5 ($1000 —> $5000 potential)
Oct 03 - SPX 5690c $2 → $14.20($2000 → $14200 potential)
Oct 03 - SPX 5695c $1-2 → $9.80 ($1500 → $9800 potential)
Oct 03 - NVDA 125c $0.55 (swing)
Oct 03 - XOM 123c $0.22 (swing)
Oct 03 - OXY 55c $0.33 (swing)
Oct 03 - PDD 155c $1.20 (swing)
Oct 03 - SPX 5720/25 bear calls $2 —> 0 (risk $500 to collect $2000 premium)
Oct 02 - SPX 5700p $2.50 → $8.50 ($2500 —> $8500 potential)
Oct 02 - SPX 5720/25 bear calls $2.50 —> 0 (risk $500 to collect $2500 premium)
Oct 01 - SPX 5720p $3 → $12 ($3000 —> $12000 potential)
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
For live alerts and market commentary click the button below.
Trade Recap for Tuesday Oct 08
GOLD BOLD ITALIC = price action signal
GOLD REGULAR = action to take/taken
GREEN REGULAR = trades I should have taken
SPY / SPX
Given the gap up and the way the action, was I tried a short but quickly got stopped out and then decided to wait for a dip in afternoon to get long.
I decided to go with SPX 5750c and started in early, got stopped. and then got back in under $1 and then adding after it started working. I then ripped to 4.80 and yanked back to $2 for a reload before going to my targeted $7 exit.
I told THT PRO members that I was confident we can sell for 3-7. Why? Because My next SPX level was 5757.80. So if we got there SPX 5750c will be worth $8. Given the 0DTE nature, I wanted to sell before we got there.
After the high of day break, there was a dip where you notice the second GO LONG. Here is the plan Edge Trade Planner generated.
IMHO that is an amazing risk reward targetting T2!! how would you like to risk $500 and make $2500 using $1000?
How do you get the generated plan? Type /plan b SPX 5750c 2, it will suggest stops and sell targets in seconds and tell you to use 5 contracts (assuming you use the default $1000 allocation size)!
All in all super proud of the patience and planning yesterday and just a handful of trades!
If you are busy and want to see my commentary and ideas in real time consider joining THT-PRO.
Education - How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows/failed breakdown reversal
Join at vwap mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Education - Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Let me know in the comments if you have questions or would like to see examples, I’ll share them.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Wed Oct 09
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
Watching SPY, PDD, NVDA today!
Reminder FOMC minutes are out at 2pm. So we could see some volatility before and after.
Let’s go over the ideas…