Does TSLA's range break continue? After market's reaction to MU's report, what will chip stocks do? Trade Ideas for June 27, 2024
As expected SPY consolidated yesterday. Will jobless claims today trigger a range break?
Good morning traders!
I had a nice lunch yesterday with another expat and it was invigorating. He challenged me to think about my goals and seriously focus on it. Consider where I spend my time and how does it help me move me toward my goals. There are few things I have been putting off, but this conversation really got me excited to get on it.
The reason I bring this up is, how many of your are doing trade reviews? Could you take 10-30 minutes of your day available to review the actions you took and what you could have done better?
The big trades from yesterday weren’t monster bangers as we are use to but they did pay 3-5R. Pay check met! I’ll go over those trades and why I took them.
I was mentally exhausted and while I had the right idea, I called it quits early. One of the THT-PRO members nailed it though and got SPX 5475 calls from 0.45—>8. Way to go Tanaka!
Chip stocks have more or less been consolidating the last few days and it seemed to me that market was waiting for MU’s report and market reaction. Given that is out of the way we may get a range break so keep an eye out for that on SMCI, AVGO, NVDA. My current bias is to wait for MU to hit 128-130 before considering a swing long.
If you're struggling, take some time to review past blog posts and learn the processes and core trade setups I use. Patience is key. Don't force yourself into a trade. Only enter trades at or near key levels with enough range to the next level to provide a great risk/reward opportunity.
Introduction (for New Readers)
Welcome to my blog on Two Hour Trading, your daily source for market insights and trading opportunities. In this blog, I will provide you with a comprehensive analysis of the market, educational lessons, and trade ideas to help you stay ahead in your trading journey and best of all doing it less than two hours a day.
What Subscribers Get
Subscribers to this blog will receive daily updates on market analysis, educational content, and up to three trade ideas each morning, all based on real-life examples and my personal approach to trading.
NOTE: screenshots from chat are from Edge Trade Planner. A platform available to THT PRO members. Join Us for live commentary and planning. Note my goal is to actively trade less than 2 hours a day finding 1 to 4 great trades a day.
What is Two Hour Trading?
It’s my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to setup. Key benefits:
High Quality trades with great reward vs risk
Avoid Overtrading and losses from it
Trading to Win vs Trading to Not Lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Alert Leaderboard
(I’ve decided to include a leaderboard so you can see what potential the 2 Hour Trading System has)
The following is based on entry alerts.
June 26 - TSLA 200c 7/5 swing $2.65 —> ($2650—> $4500 potential so far could hit $15000+)
June 25 - SPX 4470c $1 —> ($1000—> $5000 potential)
June 24 - SPX 4460p $1 —> ($1000—> $12000 potential)
June 20 - NVDA 135p $0.75 —> ($750—> $5000 potential)
June 20 - SPX 4480p $1.50 —> ($1500—> $10000 potential)
June 20 - SPX 4475p $0.50 —> ($500—> $5000 potential)
June 13 - SMCI 820c $10 stops $5 —> ($1000—> $6200 potential)
June 13 - SMCI 900c $2.50 stops $1.25 —> ($2500—> $13000 potential)
June 13 - AVGO 1650p $5 stops $3 —> ($5000—> $22500 potential)
June 12 - SPX puts on SPY 544 reject —> SPX 5220p went from $1 to $12
June 12 - AAPL 220c $0.85 —> ($850 —> $2800 potential)
June 11 - AAPL 200c $1.50 —> ($1500 —> $7500 potential —> $20000 if swung)
June 11 - AAPL 205c 6/21 $1 (swing) —> ($1000 -$6000 —> $15000 if swung)
June 11 - SPX 5360c $2.50 —> ($2500 —> $15000 potential)
June 10 - SPX 5350c $4.20 —> ($4200 —> $16000 potential)
June 6 - NVDA 1220c $12 —> ($1200 —> $2100 potential)
June 5- SPX 5350c 0.30 —> ($3000 —> $45000 potential)
June 5 - META 490c $3 —> ($3000 —> $9500 potential)
June 4 - SPX 5290/95 bear calls $1.80 —> ($1500 credit potential, $1000 if held to close)
June 3 - SPX 5280p $5 —> ($500 —> $4500 potential)
May 22 - SPX 5280p $0.10 —> ($1000 —> $43000 potential)
May 22 - SPX 5300p $0.50 —> ($500 —> $15000 potential)
May 21 - SPX 5320c $0.50 (alert: 0.25 target $2-5) —> ($500 —> $6000 potential)
May 21 - SMCI 1000c $9.25 Swing (entry day before) —> ($925 —> $2100 potential)
May 17 - AMD 170c $0.20 Swing (entry day before) —> ($200 —> $1500 potential)
May 16 - SPX 5300p $0.20 Round 3 —> ($200 —> $2800 potential)
May 16 - SPX 5300p $0.50 Round 2 —> ($500 —> $2600 potential)
May 16 - SPX 5300p $1 Round 1 —> ($1000 —> $5000 potential)
May 15 - SMCI 850c $12 —> ($1200 —> $10000 potential)
May 14 - SPX 5240c $0.50 —> ($500 —> $10600 potential)
May 14 - SPX 5230/5225 bull puts $4 —> ($4000 premium potential)
May 14 - SPX 5245c $0.20 —> ($200 —> $6000 potential)
May 14 - SPX 5240c $0.50 —> ($500 —> $10600 potential)
May 14 - SPX 5230/5225 bull puts $4 —> ($4000 premium potential)
May 13 - SPX 5220/5215 bull puts $2.50 —> ($2500 premium potential)
May 13 - TSLA 170p $1.90 —> ($1900 —> $2890 potential)
May 10 - AMD 162.50p $0.25 (0.25 entry) —> ($250 —> $1600 potential)
May 9 - SPX 5210c $1.25 (1-1.50 entry) —> ($1250 —> $6200 potential)
May 9 - SPX 5220c $0.20 —> ($200 —> $1100 potential)
May 9 - SPX 5200c $3 —> ($3000 —> 15800 potential) (dipped to 2.20)
May 8 - SPX 5200/5205 bear calls $1.20 —> ($1200 premium potential)
May 8 - SPX 5190/5195 bear calls $1.50 —> ($1500 premium potential)
May 8 - SPX 5180c $4 —> ($400—> $1100 potential)
May 7 - SPX 5190c $1 —> ($1000—> $4000 potential)
May 7 - SPX 5190c $1 —> ($1000—> $4000 potential)
May 7 - DIS 105p $0.40 —> ($400—> $1600 potential)
May 6 - SPX 5170c $3 —> ($300—> $1100 potential)
May 6 - SPX 5175c $0.40 —> ($400 —>$7000 potential)
May 3 - SPX 5150/5155 bear calls $1.50 —> ($1500 premium potential)
May 2 - SPX 5020p $7 —> ($700 → $2180 potential)
May 2 - SPX 5070c $1.20 —> ($1500 → $7200 potential)
May 2 - SPX 5070c $3—> ($3000 → $7200 potential)
Apr 30 - SPX 5080p $3 —> ($3000 → $45000 potential)
Apr 23 - SPX 5060/5055 bull puts - Entry $1.75 ($1750 premium potential) drawdown < $200
Apr 22 - SPX 5050c swing - $5.50 → ($5500 → $42000 potential)
Apr 22 - SPX 5000c - $3.20 → ($3200 → $39000 potential)
Apr 22 - SPX 5020c - $0.20 alert, dipped to 0.55, fill at $0.70 → ($700 → $20000 potential)
Apr 19 - SMCI 750p - $1.50 → ($1500 → $38k+ potential)
Apr 19 - NVDA 800p - Entry $0.5 ($500→$40k potential)
Apr 18 - SPX 5050c - Entry $6 ($6000→$16000 potential)
Apr 18 - SPX 5020p - Entry $4 ($5000→$20000 potential)
Apr 16 - SPX 5140/5135 bull puts - Entry $2.50 ($2500 premium potential) drawdown < $300
Apr 12 - SPX 5100p $1. (dipped to 1.30) - Entry $2 ($2500 premium potential)
Apr 11 - SPX 5180/5185 bear calls - Entry $2.50 ($2500 premium potential)
Apr 10 - SPX 5180/5185 bear calls - Entry $2.50 ($2500 premium potential)
Apr 10 - SPX 5170c - Entry 0.50 ($500 → $5000 potential)
Apr 9 - SPX 5185/5180 bull puts - Entry $3 ($3000 premium potential)
Apr 9 - SPX 5205c - Entry $0.50 ($500→ $6000 potential)
Apr 8 - SPX 5225/5230 bear calls - Entry $1.20 ($1200 premium potential)
Apr 8 - SPX 5200/5195 bear puts - Entry $0.10 ($1000→ $8000 potential)
Apr 4 - SPX 5250p - Entry $4 ($4000→ $100k potential)
Apr 4 - SPX 5180p - Entry $1.30 ($1300 > $32k potential)
Apr 3 - SPX 5175/5170 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
Apr 2 - SPX 5175/5170 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
Apr 2 - SPX 5205/5200 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
For live alerts and market commentary click the button below.
Wednesday's Price Action (Education)
You don't try to make $100,000 ...You don’t start by saying, I’m going to make the biggest most profitable trade and turn $1000 into $100,000 and fix all my bad trades before.
You say, I’m going to plan and execute 1 trade as perfectly as I can today. You do that every single day, and soon you'll have a $100,000 and likely much more!
Please note all times are Eastern/New York regardless of what time zone I happen to be in.
SPY / SPX
One of the things I am super proud of is the precision of my levels. Look at where SPY spiked to end of day. I had placed a yolo order in for 5470c for $1 but we only dipped to $1.15. If I was a little more thoughtful, my order should have been at 1.30.
Overall we got a little more dip that I was originally expecting in SPY. roughly a 2.5-3 pt range instead of the 2 pt range I planned. That i okay. This is why wait the first hour. Around 11 am we got a failed breakdown reversal, and that would have give 5470c for roughly 2.50. I had wanted a filled under $2.
Yesterday just wasn’t my day for targeting the cheap scoops. I was off my 10-20%. That will happen and during review there wasn’t much I could do different except use method 2 for entry after confirmation for a quick scalp. That said, without those good entries and quick exits, it would be easy to get chopped up yesterday until the final payout came in last 10 minutes.
Even though I didn’t get the 10x trade into the close I grade my performance as a B on SPX. I got a small trade on it from $2.50→5. earlier in the day.
TSLA
Now this was textbook. I wasn’t sure if it would play out but all the indications were there and now we need to see if market keeps it going in coming days.
Here is technical analysis on it.
The chart above is the daily chart for TSLA. You can see how it set a double bottom and how it had been consolidating for 2 months and again for last 2 weeks. I had a trigger in my mind that if 190.70 clears it will break out and run at least 195, and possibly 205, 215, 220. And so yesterday I took a rare 200c swing for next week.
In the first 10minutes the 190.70 level and 191.40 level got a range break. so we then wait and see if vwap holds. It did and I generated this trade plan in Edge Trade Planner
Notice how there wasn’t a rush and the plan was generated after the first hour. Remember, let the trades come to you! On swing trades, I like to enter at major support OR at vwap once the move starts.
T2 was met! :)
Trade Ideas - Plan for Thursday June 27
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
After consolidating all day 456.20 was retested. Let’s see if market is ready to trend or if we get more consolidation today. After MU’s earnings, I will also be paying extra attention to chip names.