Did the SPY exhaust yesterday? Or do we see more highs today? Trade ideas for Friday Sept 20, 2024
Did the SPY exhaust yesterday? Or do we see more highs today? Trade ideas for Friday Sept 20, 2024
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Good morning traders!
After a stunning run yesterday into SPY 572.88 SPY i gapping down into 567.80. Roughly a 50% retracement. What does that mean? And where do we go from here?
I missed most of the easy money yesterday morning — need to get my sleep schedule back on track but I’ve been hard at work working on algo development to improve alerts and implement more automation for you all.
I believe I have a set of rules that based on recent action should give a 2/3 win rate.
The hard part is that the math isn’t matching up with ThinkorSwim studies.
Anyways, I digress. Yesterday the gap up made it hard to buy dips, except for in TSLA out of the gate which was super clean setup for a break out on daily.
I ended up having a thesis that we will close 572 which let us take SPX 5730/5735 bear calls for 4.20-4. risking $500-1000 for 3500+ gains by the close. That was the easier setup for me without having to watch the charts all day. Basically place the credit sell orders and if I get filled, great!
AAPL, TSLA, and MSFT all rallied as expected. The big disappoint was SMCI. It has been range bound for 3 days and every pop has been sold.
I’ll be eyeing SMCI if it breaks 430 today for more downside on pops.
Let’s review the trades and action from yesterday and then talk about some ideas.
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Introduction (for New Readers)
Welcome to my blog on Two Hour Trading—your daily source for market insights and trading opportunities. Here, you’ll find comprehensive market analysis, educational lessons, and trade ideas to help you excel in trading, all while spending less than two hours a day.
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Subscribers receive daily market analysis updates, educational content, and up to three trade ideas each morning based on real-life examples and my trading approach.
NOTE: screenshots from chat are from Edge Trade Planner. A platform available to THT PRO members. Join Us for live commentary and planning. Note my goal is to actively trade less than 2 hours a day finding 1 to 4 great trades a day.
What is Two Hour Trading?
Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Alert Leaderboard
Here's a look at some of the potential gains achieved through our entry alerts:
Sep 19 - SPX 5730/35 bear calls $4 —> 0 ($collect $4000 premium risking $500)
Sep 18 - SPX 5650/55 bear calls $4.50 —> 0 ($collect $4500 premium risking $500)
Sep 18 - SPX 5670/75 bear calls $1.50 —> 0 ($collect $1500 premium risking $500)
Sep 17 - SPX 5630p $3.50 —> 20 ($3500 → $20000 potential)
Sep 16 - SPX 5600p $3 → 10.50 ( $3000 → $10500 potential )
Sep 11 - SPX 5500c $0.50 → 60 ( $1000 → $120000 potential )
Sep 11 - SPX 5450c $4.5 → 110 ( $4500 → $110000 potential )
Sep 11 - SPX 5400p $2.75 → 14 ( $2750 → $14000 potential )
Sep 10 - SPX 5450p $3.50 → 18 ( $3500 → $18000 potential )
Sep 09 - SPX 5450p $2.35 → 8 ( $2350 → $8000 potential )
Sep 09 - NVDA 102p $1.35 → 2.15 ( $1350 → $2100 potential )
Sep 06 - SPX 5430p $3 → 29.60 ( $3000 → $29600 potential )
Sep 06 - SPX 5430p $8 → 29.60 ( $8000 → $29600 potential )
Sep 06 - SPX 5450c 0.30 → 1.70 ( $3000 → $17000 potential )
Sep 06 - TSLA 220p 0.60 → 7 ( $600 → $7000 potential )
Sep 06 - NVDA 102p 0.20 —> 1.50 ( $2000 → $15000 potential )
Sep 05 - TSLA 230c 2.30 → 7 ( $2300 → $7000 potential )
Sep 05 - SPX 5620p 6 → 37 ( $6000 → $37000 potential )
Sep 05 - SPX 5480p 0.5 (dipped to 0.22) → 5.20 ( $1000 → $10000 potential )
Sep 04 - SPX 5630p 6 → 26 ( $6000 → $26000 potential )
Sep 03 - SPX 5630p 0.20 (dipped to 0.75) ( $750 → $19000 potential )
Sep 03 - SPX 5555p 4.50 → 46 ( $4500 → $46000 potential )
Sep 03 - NVDA 110p 1.4 —> 4.4 (1400 → 4400 potenial)
Sep 03 - UVXY 25c 1.2 —> 5.4 ( $1200 → $5400 potential)
Aug 30 - SPX 5640c 0.20 (dipped to 0.30) —> 14 ($3000 → $140000 potential)
Aug 29 - SPX 5650c 3.50 —> 6 ($3500 → $6500 potential)
Aug 29 - MSFT 420c 1.30 —> 4 ($1300 → $4000 potential)
Aug 28 - SPX 5560p 1 —> 8.70 ($1000 → $8700 potential)
Aug 28 - SPX 5560p 1 —> 8.70 ($1000 → $8700 potential)
Aug 28 - SPX 5580p 1.75 —> 21 ($1750 → $21000 potential)
Aug 27-28 - PDD 95p 0.75 → $7 ($750 → $7000 potential) *swing trade
Aug 27 - SPX 5620c 4.50 → $19 ($4500 → $19500 potential)
Aug 27 - PDD 95p 0.75 → $1.66 ($750 → $1660 potential) *swing still in play
Aug 26 - PDD 100P $1.50 → $6.50 ($1500 → $6500 potential)
Aug 23 - SPX 5600p $7 → 38 ($7000 → $38000 potential)
Aug 22 - SPX 5600p $7 → 38 ($7000 → $38000 potential)
Aug 21 - META 535c $3 → 8.50 ($3000 → $8500 potential)
Aug 20 - SPX 5600p $4.50 → 15 ($4500 → $18000 potential)
Aug 20 - SPX 5580p $2 → 7 ($2000 → $7000 potential)
Aug 19 - SPX 5600c $0.4 → 8.25 ($400 → $8250 potential)
Aug 15 - SMCI 600c (swing) $2 → 38 ($2000 → $38000 potential)
Aug 15 - SPX 5540c 0.50 —> 3.50 ($500 → $3500 potential)
Aug 14 - SPX 5400p 5.50 → 10 ($5500 → $10000 potential)
Aug 14 - SPX 5450c 4 → 10 ($4000 → $10000 potential)
Aug 14 - SPX 5450c 1.50 → 10 ($1500 → $10000 potential)
Aug 14 - SPX 5460c 0.20 → 3 (0.10 entry goal, took small 0.20) ($200 → $3000 potential)
Aug 13 - SMCI 600c swing $2.5 ($2500 → $10500 potential)
Aug 13 - SPX 5400p 17 stops 15 ($1700 —> $2300 potential)
Aug 12 - SPX5350c $8 stops 7 ($8000 → $25000 potential)
Aug 12 - SPX5340c $0.5 ($500 → $4500 potential)
Aug 09 - NVDA107c $0.2 stops .10 ($2000 → $7000 potential)
Aug 09 - LLY900c $3.50 stops 1.50 ($3500 → $11500 potential)
Aug 07 - SPX 5280p $10 stops 8 ($1000 → $8000+ potential)
Aug 07 - SPX 5200p $1 stops 0.5 ($1000 → $7000+ potential)
Aug 07 - NVDA 100p $0.8 stops 0.4 ($800 → $3300+ potential)
Aug 06 - SPX 5250c $10 stops 8 ($1000 —> $6000+potential)
Aug 06 - SPX 5250p $1.5 stops 0.75($1500 —> $13000+potential)
Aug 05 - SPX 5300c $3.50 stops 2.50 ($3500 —> $11000 +potential)
Aug 02 - SPX 5350p $5.50 (overnight swing from Aug 01) ($5500 —> $45000 +potential)
Aug 01 - SPX 5480p $4.50 ($4500 —> $65000 potential)
July 31 - SPX 5520c $12 ($1200 —> $3390 potential)
July 30 - SPX 5430p $2.50 ($2500 —> $30000 potential)
July 30 - SPX 5400p $2 ($2000 —> $10000 potential)
July 30 - TSLA 220p $1.50 ($1500 —> $5000 potential)
July 30 - SPX 5450c $0.20 ($200 —> $5000 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5450p $4.50 ($4500 —> $16000 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5460p $0.20 ($200 —> $1100 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5470p $1.5 ($1500 —> $8000 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5480c credit sell - collect $2700 risk $500
July 29 - SPX 5400p $2 out $6 ($2000 —> $6000 potential)
July 26 - SPX 5400p $2 out $6 ($2000 —> $6000 potential)
July 26 - SPX 5450c $4 out $12 reached 15.50 ($4000 —> $15500 potential)
July 25 - SPX 5450c $1, $1.50, and $1.75. target $10. reached $10! ($1000 —> $10000 potential)
July 25 - SPX 5450c $5. reached $41.70! ($5000 —> $41700 potential)
July 22 - CRWD 240p $1.7. reached $3.5! ($1700 —> $3500 potential)
July 22 - SPX 5580c $0.5. reached $3.3! ($500 —> $3300 potential)
July 19 - SPX 5500p $2. reached $12! ($2000 —> $12000 potential)
July 18 - SPX 5580p $5. reached $53+! ($5000 —> $53000 potential)
July 17 - SPX 5540c $2. reached $16! ($2000 —> $16000 potential)
July 16 - SPX 5660c $2. reached $10! ($2000 —> $10000 potential)
July 15 - SPX 5650c $1. reached $4! ($1000 —> $4000 potential)
July 11 - SPX 5600p $2. reached $23! ($2000 —> $23000 potential)
July 09 - Credit Sell SPX 5590/5595 bear calls 2.30-2.50 stops at 2.60 ( $2500 premium collected per 5k position risking $300)
July 08 - AVGO 1800c 13( $1300—> $2250 potential)
July 08 - SPX 5560p 2.50 stops 2.30 ( $2500—> $5000 potential)
July 08 - TSLA 270c 4.50 target 7.50 ( $4500—> $7600 potential)
July 03 - SPX 5520 2.5 ($2500—> $18000 potential)
July 02 - TSLA 225c 3.5 ($3500—> $8500 potential)
July 02 - SPX 5500c 2.50 ($2500 —> $10000 potential)
July 02 - SPX 5470 Bull Puts 2.50 ($2500 credit collected)
July 01 - closed TSLA Swing $2.65—> $12.00
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
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Trade Recap for Thurs Sep 19
GOLD BOLD ITALIC = price action signal
GOLD REGULAR = action to take/taken
GREEN REGULAR = trades I should have taken
I missed the dump at 2pm but on the bounce back up was able to get a nice double.
The big plan for me was to set orders in advance to fill on SPX 5730/5735 calls. anything over 3-3.50 I liked risk/reward on for a close sub 5730. we closed at 5715.
My goal is to trade less, make plans, and the let them work or not work vs getting caught up in the chop. Let me know if you are interested in a credit selling course. IT best for those with margin accounts. And I can teach how to do with while limiting the risk and capital usage in SPX.
If you are busy and want to see my commentary and ideas in real time consider joining THT-PRO.
Education - How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows/failed breakdown reversal
Join at vwap mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Education - Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Let me know in the comments if you have questions or would like to see examples, I’ll share them.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Friday Sept 20
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
Stick to process.
Looking for a weak open and then gap fill move today. It’s triple witching so it could be wild and it can also be choppy in a limited range so be patient and only take great risk/reward trade setups..
Remember last week how I said technically SPY chart is setup for 600+ by Jan-Feb. Let’s see if that comes.