Did AMD sell off catch you by surprise? SPY breaks out of consolidation to upside! FOMC holds interest rate steady. Trade ideas for Thursday Aug 01, 2024
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Good morning traders!
I got cocky yesterday, and ended up with a red day. Mostly due to oversizing and not taking profits when I had them. These days will happen.
There were a couple of things I could probably have done better, but I was looking to leverage recent wins into a big pay day. I accepted that risk.
Today is another to day to execute the process and assume profits will come. Its super essential to not let a bad trigger emotional trading and another red day.
Highlights from yesterday:
Short AMD on vwap break - 145p. 1.70 —> 3 and 5 as sell targets
SPX 5550c bear calls - collected $2200 premium
SPX 5530 bull puls - collected $3000 premium
SPX 5520 for $12 ran to $33.90+
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Let’s review yesterday’s trades and then get into ideas for today. So much opportunity!
Introduction (for New Readers)
Welcome to my blog on Two Hour Trading—your daily source for market insights and trading opportunities. Here, you’ll find comprehensive market analysis, educational lessons, and trade ideas to help you excel in trading, all while spending less than two hours a day.
What Subscribers Get
Subscribers receive daily market analysis updates, educational content, and up to three trade ideas each morning based on real-life examples and my trading approach.
NOTE: screenshots from chat are from Edge Trade Planner. A platform available to THT PRO members. Join Us for live commentary and planning. Note my goal is to actively trade less than 2 hours a day finding 1 to 4 great trades a day.
What is Two Hour Trading?
Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Alert Leaderboard
Here's a look at some of the potential gains achieved through our entry alerts:
July 31 - SPX 5520c $12 ($1200 —> $3390 potential)
July 30 - SPX 5430p $2.50 ($2500 —> $30000 potential)
July 30 - SPX 5400p $2 ($2000 —> $10000 potential)
July 30 - TSLA 220p $1.50 ($1500 —> $5000 potential)
July 30 - SPX 5450c $0.20 ($200 —> $5000 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5450p $4.50 ($4500 —> $16000 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5460p $0.20 ($200 —> $1100 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5470p $1.5 ($1500 —> $8000 potential)
July 29 - SPX 5480c credit sell - collect $2700 risk $500
July 29 - SPX 5400p $2 out $6 ($2000 —> $6000 potential)
July 26 - SPX 5400p $2 out $6 ($2000 —> $6000 potential)
July 26 - SPX 5450c $4 out $12 reached 15.50 ($4000 —> $15500 potential)
July 25 - SPX 5450c $1, $1.50, and $1.75. target $10. reached $10! ($1000 —> $10000 potential)
July 25 - SPX 5450c $5. reached $41.70! ($5000 —> $41700 potential)
July 22 - CRWD 240p $1.7. reached $3.5! ($1700 —> $3500 potential)
July 22 - SPX 5580c $0.5. reached $3.3! ($500 —> $3300 potential)
July 19 - SPX 5500p $2. reached $12! ($2000 —> $12000 potential)
July 18 - SPX 5580p $5. reached $53+! ($5000 —> $53000 potential)
July 17 - SPX 5540c $2. reached $16! ($2000 —> $16000 potential)
July 16 - SPX 5660c $2. reached $10! ($2000 —> $10000 potential)
July 15 - SPX 5650c $1. reached $4! ($1000 —> $4000 potential)
July 11 - SPX 5600p $2. reached $23! ($2000 —> $23000 potential)
July 09 - Credit Sell SPX 5590/5595 bear calls 2.30-2.50 stops at 2.60 ( $2500 premium collected per 5k position risking $300)
July 08 - AVGO 1800c 13( $1300—> $2250 potential)
July 08 - SPX 5560p 2.50 stops 2.30 ( $2500—> $5000 potential)
July 08 - TSLA 270c 4.50 target 7.50 ( $4500—> $7600 potential)
July 03 - SPX 5520 2.5 ($2500—> $18000 potential)
July 02 - TSLA 225c 3.5 ($3500—> $8500 potential)
July 02 - SPX 5500c 2.50 ($2500 —> $10000 potential)
July 02 - SPX 5470 Bull Puts 2.50 ($2500 credit collected)
July 01 - closed TSLA Swing $2.65—> $12.00
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
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Wednesday Recap
Let’s review Wednesday’s trades. Did you take advantage? If not read on an learn how.
SPY/SPX
The above chart shows how it should have been traded. I nailed the long in the morning entry. and took profits for 100% gain.
I then planned to wait for 2;30pm. At this point FOMO got in my head and I planned dip buy orders for another leg assuming the trend over 552.50 would continue. This is where having orders in advance can get you. When the market broke 552.50 and trend failed, my dip buy orders got filled! And these lost 80% of value in minutes.
Sometimes that will happen. I got caught dealing with that, and was slow to cancel the dip buy orders when I saw the double top/lower high signal a short play. Bad execution and planning on my part.
On doing the trade review, I can see how it was clear as day to get short, so will be working on updating to provide that insight early and reminder to consider cancelling dip long orders.
It’s too bad, because SPX 5520p ripped from 3 to 16. More than losing on dip buys I hate missing the bagger trades in last hour.
As for the close, I was stubborn with the thought that we would close over 552.50, where as process wise, the target should have been 550.50.
Not everyday is perfect execution. One should accept that, but still strive to make every day one where trades are executed well.
If you are busy and want to see my commentary and ideas in real time consider joining THT-PRO.
AMD - What’s up with the sell off?
I know some people got caught getting long on AMD. This is where understanding how price action works is important. If a stock has strong trend it will hold over vwap all day. other wise you look for some gap fill and support to be established after first hour or two of selling. In this case AMD followed the Gap Up 2 level reversal pattern perfectly! I alerted 145 or less coming on seeing vwap failed to THT PRO members.
Education - How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows/failed breakdown reversal
Join at vwap mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Education - Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Let me know in the comments if you have questions or would like to see examples, I’ll share them.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Thursday Aug 01
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
Guys my trading process is relatively simple. Identify Key levels, Define thesis, identify price action to match or reject thesis. Take profits or losses systematically. That’s it. Keep it simple.
Overall we are slowing pushing and could see 1 or 2 more levels upward coming. It also seems like we will continue to be in for chop. I would only go long at support levels and likely avoid breakout buying
Here are the levels and ideas: