Can SPY reach 600 or exhaust at 595 today? Trade ideas for Jan 16, 2024
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Good morning traders !
TSLA 430c dipped to 2 again but missed the reload, I ended up scaling in between 3 and 4.40. TSLA 430c reached $8 again!
SPY and SPX made it very difficult to secure an over 300% trade. On a day where SPY moved almost 2%, I would typically be able to get a 10x gainer trade so I was incredibly frustrated with the gap and range yesterday and barely able to make 100-200% gain. What is more interesting is that normally far OTM contracts will typically give me more %gain then closer strikes. I was focused on 5950c and 5960c, which gave about 200% gainer potential in afternoon meanwhile 5940c went from $4 to $20!
What this tells us is there was relatively higher demand for the strikes above 5940 so they didn’t get discounted as much as normal. At least that is my take.
The other fascinating thing is that I nailed the bear calls. After the initial push, I alerted taking SPX 5950/5955 bear calls for $2 which gave a nice 50%+ credit sell gain and then ran to 4 missing my 4.50 order to reload the credit sell and ended the day at 0! We closed just under 5950!
The crazy thing is using puts I was only able to make 100% gain! Where as if I took the bear calls at $4 that would have been 4000 reward on 1000 risk. I was trying to get 4500 reward on 500 risk. but entry was off by $0.30. :(
Anyways overall yesterday was nuts. We also nailed the scoop on GS 610c for $2 which rallied to $4.50 for a nice 100% gainer.
Another amazing day and start to 2025!
Now lets get into the highlights and where will we make money today!
Wednesday Highlights
SPY - monster gap and go after CPI and the levels were perfect! SPY gapped up tagging 591.50 in premarket then dips to 589.50 for a failed breakdown and then for Round 1 ran to 593.
It then dipped and retested 589.80 which I was looking for a break of for some gap fill but that didn’t happen. And then pushed toward 594 almost reaching 594.50 (reached in premarket today)
TSLA - Gave dipped right to the 406 level and then ripped to 429!. Sorry I gave the 380s dip desire when I published before CPI came out. After that gap up had to revise the dip entry spot to the level below. Option Scanner on Tuesday show non stop buying on TSLA 410c into the close. They got paid yesterday!!!!
NFLX - I had alerted as possible runner got 860+ move coming.
GS - Nice earnings, dip and push on 610, lets see if 620 can come by tomorrow.
Wed Premarket Highlights
SPY - gapping up again and pushed on 595.50 in premarket
GS - given multiple price target upgrades by Evercore ISI (660), JPMorgan (605), Morgan Stanley (782), Barclays (760), and Oppenheimer (687)
TSM - Nice earnings and profit boost
AAPL - gapping up but has lost the lead in China market share.
NFLX - gapping up over 860 this morning
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Introduction (for New Readers)
Welcome to my blog on Two Hour Trading—your daily source for market insights and trading opportunities. Here, you’ll find comprehensive market analysis, educational lessons, and trade ideas to help you excel in trading, all while spending less than two hours a day.
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Subscribers receive daily market analysis updates, educational content, and up to three trade ideas each morning based on real-life examples and my trading approach.
NOTE: screenshots from chat are from Edge Trade Planner. A platform available to THT PRO members. Join Us for live commentary and planning. Note my goal is to actively trade less than 2 hours a day finding 1 to 4 great trades a day.
What is Two Hour Trading?
Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2025 Q1 Alert Leaderboard
Here's a look at some of the potential gains achieved through our entry alerts:
Intraday Alerts
2024-01-02 SPX 5880p 11 to 40+
2024-01-02 SPX 5820p $2 to 10
2024-01-03 SPX 5930c $2, dipped to $3 and ran to $11
2024-01-06 SPX 5980p $1.70 → $20 ($1700 to $20k potential)
2024-01-07 SPX 5900p $0.50 → $11 ($500 to $11000 potential)
2024-01-07 SPX 5930p $5 → $17.4 ($5000 to $17400 potential)
2024-01-07 SPX 5930p $5 → $40 ($500 to $4000 potential)
2024-01-08 SPX 5800p 1/10 $4 → $10 ($400 to $1000 potential)
2024-01-10 SPX 5800p 1/10 $4 → $10 ($400 to $1000 potential)
2024-01-13 SPX 5820c $5 → $10 ($400 to $1000 potential) **Round 1
2024-01-13 SPX 5820c $2.80 → $16 ($400 to $1000 potential) ** Round 2
2024-01-13 SPX 5820c $4.50 → $16 ($400 to $1000 potential)** Round 3
2024-01-14 SPX 5870c $0.75 → $3.75 ($750 to $3750 potential)
2024-01-14 TSLA 430c $0.75 → $3.75 ($750 to $3750 potential)
2024-01-15 SPX 5950c $9 → $14 ($9000 to $14000 potential)
2024-01-15 GS 610c $2 → $4.50 ($2000 to $4500 potential)
2024-01-15 TSLA 430c $3-4 → $8.20 ($3500 to $8200 potential)
2024-01-15 QQQ 514p $0.8 → $1.82 ($8000 to $18200 potential)
Swing Alerts
2024-01-13 TSLA 430c $1.30 → 8.82 ($1300 to $8820 potential) **alerted exits at 6.50 and 8
2024-01-15 GS 610c $2 → ?
Credit Sell Alerts
2024-01-14 SPX 5800/5795 bull puts for 1.50-2.50. $2000 credit potential using 10 contracts and $1000 risk.
2024-01-15 SPX 5950/5955 bear calls for $2→0. $2000-4200 credit potential. Round 1 dipped to 0.75. Round 2 ran to $4.20 and then dropped to 0.
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
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Trade Recap for Wed Jan 15
GOLD BOLD ITALIC = price action signal
WHITE REGULAR = action to take/taken
GREEN REGULAR = trades I should have taken
SPY / SPX
Were you able to spot the signals?
Highlights
Why did I take profit near 593?
SPX 5965 was my max target for the day so when 5950c were $14 they more or less were priced as if 5965 was here
Boro in THT community has a good feel for market and shared 593 as his target
The way each new high was getting slammed made it feel like sellers were around
I got bearish per process once 10:30 level broke and vwap broke aiming for some gap fill, but we took profits at 598.80 once it was reclaimed.
Waited for contracts to get cheap and dip at 1pm after lunch to scoop long for high of day break out.
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Education - How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows/failed breakdown reversal
Join at vwap mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Education - Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Let me know in the comments if you have questions or would like to see examples, I’ll share them.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Thursday Jan 16
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
IV this morning is at 27% on SPX. better than past days but still elevated.
As usual I will make bull and bear plans.
While the market looks bullish, I’m looking for a possible short and exhaustion move to develop today but be prepared for upside if it comes. Checkout the chart on SPY below..