AAPL, SMCI, and SPY begin next leg! -- Trade ideas for Tuesday June 18, 2024
Bien dia traders. I got to Medellin after 24 hours of travel last night. Boy did I miss out on potential big payouts. I had left some calls open as a swing, but the yank end of day dumped most of the profits I had in AAPL calls :(. But my t1 sell targets at least filled during the day :)
In today’s blog I want to review the process you should use to capitalize on the price action yesterday.
Reminder, the purpose of this blog is to teach you the fundamental concepts I use in my trading every day so you can make more with less time and effort! To use the processes I teach to plan, position and profit!
Let’s get into the reviews and then talk about trade ideas for today.
Introduction (for New Readers)
Welcome to my blog on Two Hour Trading, your daily source for market insights and trading opportunities. In this blog, I will provide you with a comprehensive analysis of the market, educational lessons, and trade ideas to help you stay ahead in your trading journey and best of all doing it less than two hours a day.
What Subscribers Get
Subscribers to this blog will receive daily updates on market analysis, educational content, and up to three trade ideas each morning, all based on real-life examples and my personal approach to trading.
NOTE: screenshots from chat are from Edge Trade Planner. A platform available to THT PRO members. Join Us for live commentary and planning. Note my goal is to actively trade less than 2 hours a day finding 1 to 4 great trades a day.
What is Two Hour Trading?
It’s my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to setup. Key benefits:
High Quality trades with great reward vs risk
Avoid Overtrading and losses from it
Trading to Win vs Trading to Not Lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Alert Leaderboard
(I’ve decided to include a leaderboard so you can see what potential the 2 Hour Trading System has)
The following is based on entry alerts.
June 13 - SMCI 820c $10 stops $5 —> ($1000—> $6200 potential)
June 13 - SMCI 900c $2.50 stops $1.25 —> ($2500—> $13000 potential)
June 13 - AVGO 1650p $5 stops $3 —> ($5000—> $22500 potential)
June 12 - SPX puts on SPY 544 reject —> SPX 5220p went from $1 to $12
June 12 - AAPL 220c $0.85 —> ($850 —> $2800 potential)
June 11 - AAPL 200c $1.50 —> ($1500 —> $7500 potential —> $20000 if swung)
June 11 - AAPL 205c 6/21 $1 (swing) —> ($1000 -$6000 —> $15000 if swung)
June 11 - SPX 5360c $2.50 —> ($2500 —> $15000 potential)
June 10 - SPX 5350c $4.20 —> ($4200 —> $16000 potential)
June 6 - NVDA 1220c $12 —> ($1200 —> $2100 potential)
June 5- SPX 5350c 0.30 —> ($3000 —> $45000 potential)
June 5 - META 490c $3 —> ($3000 —> $9500 potential)
June 4 - SPX 5290/95 bear calls $1.80 —> ($1500 credit potential, $1000 if held to close)
June 3 - SPX 5280p $5 —> ($500 —> $4500 potential)
May 22 - SPX 5280p $0.10 —> ($1000 —> $43000 potential)
May 22 - SPX 5300p $0.50 —> ($500 —> $15000 potential)
May 21 - SPX 5320c $0.50 (alert: 0.25 target $2-5) —> ($500 —> $6000 potential)
May 21 - SMCI 1000c $9.25 Swing (entry day before) —> ($925 —> $2100 potential)
May 17 - AMD 170c $0.20 Swing (entry day before) —> ($200 —> $1500 potential)
May 16 - SPX 5300p $0.20 Round 3 —> ($200 —> $2800 potential)
May 16 - SPX 5300p $0.50 Round 2 —> ($500 —> $2600 potential)
May 16 - SPX 5300p $1 Round 1 —> ($1000 —> $5000 potential)
May 15 - SMCI 850c $12 —> ($1200 —> $10000 potential)
May 14 - SPX 5240c $0.50 —> ($500 —> $10600 potential)
May 14 - SPX 5230/5225 bull puts $4 —> ($4000 premium potential)
May 14 - SPX 5245c $0.20 —> ($200 —> $6000 potential)
May 14 - SPX 5240c $0.50 —> ($500 —> $10600 potential)
May 14 - SPX 5230/5225 bull puts $4 —> ($4000 premium potential)
May 13 - SPX 5220/5215 bull puts $2.50 —> ($2500 premium potential)
May 13 - TSLA 170p $1.90 —> ($1900 —> $2890 potential)
May 10 - AMD 162.50p $0.25 (0.25 entry) —> ($250 —> $1600 potential)
May 9 - SPX 5210c $1.25 (1-1.50 entry) —> ($1250 —> $6200 potential)
May 9 - SPX 5220c $0.20 —> ($200 —> $1100 potential)
May 9 - SPX 5200c $3 —> ($3000 —> 15800 potential) (dipped to 2.20)
May 8 - SPX 5200/5205 bear calls $1.20 —> ($1200 premium potential)
May 8 - SPX 5190/5195 bear calls $1.50 —> ($1500 premium potential)
May 8 - SPX 5180c $4 —> ($400—> $1100 potential)
May 7 - SPX 5190c $1 —> ($1000—> $4000 potential)
May 7 - SPX 5190c $1 —> ($1000—> $4000 potential)
May 7 - DIS 105p $0.40 —> ($400—> $1600 potential)
May 6 - SPX 5170c $3 —> ($300—> $1100 potential)
May 6 - SPX 5175c $0.40 —> ($400 —>$7000 potential)
May 3 - SPX 5150/5155 bear calls $1.50 —> ($1500 premium potential)
May 2 - SPX 5020p $7 —> ($700 → $2180 potential)
May 2 - SPX 5070c $1.20 —> ($1500 → $7200 potential)
May 2 - SPX 5070c $3—> ($3000 → $7200 potential)
Apr 30 - SPX 5080p $3 —> ($3000 → $45000 potential)
Apr 23 - SPX 5060/5055 bull puts - Entry $1.75 ($1750 premium potential) drawdown < $200
Apr 22 - SPX 5050c swing - $5.50 → ($5500 → $42000 potential)
Apr 22 - SPX 5000c - $3.20 → ($3200 → $39000 potential)
Apr 22 - SPX 5020c - $0.20 alert, dipped to 0.55, fill at $0.70 → ($700 → $20000 potential)
Apr 19 - SMCI 750p - $1.50 → ($1500 → $38k+ potential)
Apr 19 - NVDA 800p - Entry $0.5 ($500→$40k potential)
Apr 18 - SPX 5050c - Entry $6 ($6000→$16000 potential)
Apr 18 - SPX 5020p - Entry $4 ($5000→$20000 potential)
Apr 16 - SPX 5140/5135 bull puts - Entry $2.50 ($2500 premium potential) drawdown < $300
Apr 12 - SPX 5100p $1. (dipped to 1.30) - Entry $2 ($2500 premium potential)
Apr 11 - SPX 5180/5185 bear calls - Entry $2.50 ($2500 premium potential)
Apr 10 - SPX 5180/5185 bear calls - Entry $2.50 ($2500 premium potential)
Apr 10 - SPX 5170c - Entry 0.50 ($500 → $5000 potential)
Apr 9 - SPX 5185/5180 bull puts - Entry $3 ($3000 premium potential)
Apr 9 - SPX 5205c - Entry $0.50 ($500→ $6000 potential)
Apr 8 - SPX 5225/5230 bear calls - Entry $1.20 ($1200 premium potential)
Apr 8 - SPX 5200/5195 bear puts - Entry $0.10 ($1000→ $8000 potential)
Apr 4 - SPX 5250p - Entry $4 ($4000→ $100k potential)
Apr 4 - SPX 5180p - Entry $1.30 ($1300 > $32k potential)
Apr 3 - SPX 5175/5170 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
Apr 2 - SPX 5175/5170 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
Apr 2 - SPX 5205/5200 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
For live alerts and market commentary click the button below.
Monday’s Price Action (Education)
You don't try to make $100,000 ...You don’t start by saying, I’m going to make the biggest most profitable trade and turn $1000 into $100,000 and fix all my bad trades before.
You say, I’m going to plan and execute 1 trade as perfectly as I can today. You do that every single day, and soon you'll have a $100,000 and likely much more!
Please note all times are Eastern/New York regardless of what time zone I happen to be in.
SPY / SPX
I want to start with paying attention to the consolidation from previous 3 days. I was hoping for dip back on 540 to get long, but we only did a single level dip. This can be expected given Friday’s Failed breakout down move within the 3 days of consolidation.
544 became a major resistance level and if that cleared we should assume a two level move will come and that would put our target at 548.30+. Yesterday’s high was 548.50 so the targeting was nearly perfect! Using the process and levels are very profitable. We are in the middle of a monster breakout in the market so watch laggard names with consolidation to run next!
So when taking trades, we make plans, my original was that 540 dip, but once 541.50 held what do I do? I wait for the first hour to complete. We then got. 10:30 dip on vwap hold, that implied that if 543 cleared, we could get an all day runner. So what do we do. We first target 544 since that was resistance last week and then we project what if that clears for a range break. We count 2 levels. Its’ that simple.
Notice how after 543. cleared SPY move past premarket highs and back tested the premarket high before punching through 544. One could have entered anywhere between 543.30 and 544 imho.
So let’s figure out SPX contracts using this logic. Based on this here are the levels and chart for SPX.
We would target 5487 and so I would look for 5470c for $1.50 or less and sell for $17-22.
Let’s see if that would have filled. During the 11:30 consolidation, the 5470c for 0.20-0.35. So if you took this trade as a yolo, or following this process, You could have made over $50x!!!!
If you were more conservative and chose 5450c for $2-3.50 for entry those hit $39!! for 10x.
Spend as much time as you need to review the steps and process so you can learn how to bank using this process.
AAPL
After its initial breakout last week, AAPL consolidated at 212.50 held. I was hoping for a dip into 208 to load up on swing. I saw the volume over 214 and figured it should make a run for 218 and if that clears it could see 225-230 into friday and so I got 220 and 225 calls yesterday. Let’s see if that breakout has a 2nd leg come today/tomorrow.
SMCI
This was tricky. After it’s recent range break it sold down, only to double bottom at 830 and then make a run on 900+
Yesterday, I wrote, that I liked 1000c with a 4 week swing to begin accumulating. They were $29 at the time of writing and hit $60.
In the chart above you can see the 830 double bottom clearly and 835 failed breakdown reversal. Given its, Monday and SMCI contracts are juiced I would take 900c if I wanted to assume that AVGO and NVDA breakouts will trigger follow through in SMCI.
So here is how those contracts did.
You can use the first hour as establishing support and risk. Then get positioned and ride to 900+. I would enter for around 11 and use $9 for the stop. $2 of risk. and at 5R, 10R and 20R take 80% profits. So that would be at $21, $31, and $41.
Being systematic in profit taking has been crucial to my success. It leads to consistent account growth!
Trade Ideas - Plan for Tuesday June 18
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
In theory SPY should have a consolidation day after it’s big run, but it may want 450+.
Overall I’m worried about overextension, but I also think we could start seeing FOMO and more breakout action for more highs on various names. So the game plan.. sam thing we do everyday, look for failed breakdown reversals and range breaks on names that have consolidated or day 2 moves on legs that are starting to breakout and trend.