Will SPY fly after over night dump or head lower? -- Plan for Thu Dec 11
FOMC gave us the widely anticipated move but were you able to capitalize on it with confidence? Our Bull Puts paid! and SPX 6870 was magic!
I love doing Credit Sells, but I haven’t stopped taking Naked calls/puts.
Process = Profits
Solid day again yesterday but supper difficult to find a 10 bagger. But its ok because process paid us!
Lately I’ve been doing the following:
Premarket establish where we likely wont reach. Sell premium for 0.8-0.60 on open.
After 11: second positioning of credit sells. but with FOMC that wasn’t too worth it. This was me testing yesterday. more or less broke even on this.
FOMC day position after 2:40pm. BOOM all paid.
Credit Selling
More solid work on Bull Puts and why I preach locking in gains ahead (depending on where the strike is)
SPX 6780/75 - WON
SPX 6880/85 - FLAT/Small Profit. (these were up but not enough to collect and then IV started kicking in. Good learning experience. I had to average up once to exit flat. But worked per process/plan.
SPX 6810/05 - WON
SPX 6870/65 - WON
What I love up Credit sells is that if you are OTM, you can usually average up once and exit flat or even some profit at least once or twice. You can also often get out flatish AFTER it the price action indicates a change in direction.
100% win rate on the day (discarding flat)
VIDEO RECAP SPY/SPX on Dec 10
See this video…
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Plan for Thu Dec 11
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Pinpoint reversals around 683.73 to lock in quick gains amid claims data volatility.
Market Context
SPY has been trapped in a choppy range over the past week, oscillating between 681.31 and 688.97 as traders digest mixed economic signals and FOMC anticipation. The index closed the previous session at 687.46 after a late rally, but premarket action shows early weakness, dipping toward 683.00 with low volume suggesting indecision. Chart patterns reveal a potential failed breakdown from the 684.00 area, forming a double bottom near 682.50, with overall bias leaning neutral-to-bearish unless claims data sparks a relief bounce. Watch for volume spikes post-8:30 AM ET to confirm direction—low-volume drifts often reverse at key pivots.
Key Events Today
8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims (Forecast: 223K, Previous: 191K) – A print above 230K could pressure risk assets, targeting supports; below 210K might fuel a snapback rally.
8:30 AM ET: U.S. Trade Deficit (Forecast: -$62.0B, Previous: -$59.6B) – Wider deficit signals economic strain, potentially weighing on SPY; narrower could support bulls.