Will SPY continue its rally? Trade Ideas for Mon Aug 25
BOOM! We are 3/3 since i started the new blog with trade plans format!
Good morning!
Another day Another Win for Planning! Yesterday I wrote the Highest Probability Trade is the RangeBound trade setup.
What I love most… Predicted The push over 639, then the dip back under 638.80 and the recross confirms the upside move. The extended target was 645.84. Friday’s high 646.50.
Remember we don’t need to nail the entire range. We want high probably consistent extraction of profit from market that exceeds our risk!
Let’s review why it worked.
SPY/SPX
Morning Setup: Failed breakdown reversal on 639
This one is a different setup normally we look for failed breakdowns at lows. In this case it was on a break out that looks like it failed, but it was a faker. Given that is was after 5 red days, the buying the previous day, there was a high probability of continuation.
Two entry points:
First was to buy that dip on 638.80/vwap to star
Second was to by that 639 recross
Now here is the challenge, with news events it can be hard to enter on the cross.
I used /ES because I could put a stop market order to add to the long. Even then I kept that add small in case it was a faker.
I then manually added as it was rallying. and selling into spikes up.
As we reached all time highs the trend slowed it was time to take profits. It can run without me. We nailed the high probable trade and the plan was perfect!
Let’s keep it going. I hope you are enjoying the new format.
PS Notice how the easy money was done within under 1 Hour
There is massive opportunity in this market. Are you taking advantage? Literally have planned and alerted trades that pay over 300-1000%! You will need patience to wait for entries and the exits. But if you have self discipline or trust bracket orders, my process can help you get the results you want.
What is Two Hour Trading?
Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
If you are busy and want to see my commentary and ideas in real time consider joining THT-PRO.
Education
How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows or failed breakdown reversal at key level
Join at VWAP mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Securing Profits on Options overnight
Sometimes you get this massive paper gains overnight on options but you can’t secure it right? Well if you have a big enough account and a margin account if you have calls you can. What you need to do is buy or sell the stock overnight. and the option turns into a hedge against that position essentially securing your profits.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Mon Aug 25
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Current Market Context (SPY)
U.S. economic calendar for August 25, 2025 (could see volatility around these times):
New Home Sales at 10:00 a.m. ET (expected to influence housing sector sentiment) and
Fed speeches from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan at 3:15 p.m. ET
New York Fed President John Williams at 7:15 p.m. ET
Key Levels and Their Significance
We had a strong rally from the 632.95 low to a high of 646.58, followed by a pullback, indicating overextension . This suggests a consolidation or reversal risk post-rally,.
I will focus on failed breakdown/breakout reversals in the recent range (~633-646).
Here is the breakdown of each level…