Will Semis and SPY sell off today? GDP data today. PCE tomorrow. Plan for Wednesday Feb 28
Nailed the Levels on VKTX!
Good morning traders.
Yesterday, a THT trader reminded me how amazing the levels I create are. It’s become second nature to me but I forget that how they are like magic for planning. It is all the more apparent when you look at the levels I shared for VKXT which had gapped up into new all time highs.
SPY as expected continued dipping and then ended the day green staying true to the weekly pattern each week. (3 red days aren’t allowed)
The names that gapped such as COIN and TSLA had profit taking to fill the gap, now we need to see if they will continue today.
Fear and Greed Index continues to hold at 78 and premarket SPY unexpectedly broke yesterday’s lows.
In today’s blog, I’ll cover the weakness in chips, the gap down in SPY, and the levels for VKTX.
Introduction (for New Readers)
Welcome to my blog on Two Hour Trading, your daily source for market insights and trading opportunities. In this blog, I will provide you with a comprehensive analysis of the market, educational lessons, and trade ideas to help you stay ahead in your trading journey and best of all doing it less than two hours a day.
What Subscribers Get
Subscribers to this blog will receive daily updates on market analysis, educational content, and up to three trade ideas, all based on real-life examples and my personal approach to trading.
NOTE: screenshots from chat are from Edge Trade Planner. A platform available to THT PRO members. Join Us for live commentary and planning. Note my goal is to actively trade less than 2 hours a day finding 1 to 4 great trades a day.
What is Two Hour Trading?
It’s my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to setup. Key benefits:
High Quality trades with great reward vs risk
Avoid Overtrading and losses from it
Trading to Win vs Trading to Not Lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Alert Leaderboard
(I’ve decided to include a leaderboard so you can see what potential the 2 Hour Trading System has)
The following is based on entry alerts.
Feb 27 - TSLA 195p Entry 0.90 - High after $2.30+ ($900 —> $2300 potential)
Feb 26 - SPX 5070p Entry 0.20 - High after $2. ($200 —> $2000 potential)
Feb 23 - NVDA 800p Entry 2.50 - High after $25.11 ($3000 → $25110 potential)
**Dipped to 2.57 (had to chase entry 3)
Feb 23 - NVDA 820c Entry 2.25 (swing from Thursday) - High after $25.00 ($2250 → $25000 potential)
Feb 22 - SPX 4090c Entry $2.50 - High after $9.20 ($2500 → $9200 potential)
Feb 16 - SMCI 1000p Entry $11 - High after $195 ($1100 → $19500 potential)
Feb 15 - TSLA 195c. Entry $1.20 - High after 5.95 ($1200 → $5950 potential)
Feb 14 - NVDA 720p. Entry $4.5 - High after $12 ($4500 → $12000 potential)
Feb 13 - SPX 4955p. Entry $5 - High after $34 ($5000 → $34000 potential)
Feb 12 - ARM 180c. Entry $1.20 - High after $14.10 ($1200 → $14000 potential)
Feb08 - ARM 100c. Entry $5 - High after $27.50. ($5000 → $27500 potential)
Feb07 - TSLA 185c. Entry $2.53 - Hight after $5.60 ($2530 —> $5600 potential)
Feb05 - SPX 4940c. Entry $3 - High after $16.60 ($3000 → $16,600 potential)
Feb02 - AMD 180c. Entry 0.15 - High after $1 ($1500 —> $10000 potential)
Jan 29 - SPX 4910c. Entry $1 - High after $20 ($1000 —> $20000 potential)
Jan 26 - NFLX 570c. Entry $0.50 - High after $9.85 ($500 → $9850 potential)
Jan 25 - TSLA 185p. Entry $1.5 - High after $6.3 ($1500 → $6300 potential)
Jan 24 - SPX 4890p Entry $1.50 - High after $22 ($1500 → $22000 potential)
Jan 24 - SPX 4880p Entry $0.50 - High after $12 ($500 → $6000 potential)
Jan 17 - SPX 4740c Entry $0.20 - High after $2.80 ($200→ $2800 potential)
Jan 17 - SPX 4740c Entry $1.20 - High after $12 ($1200→ $12000 potential)
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
Tuesday’s Price Action (Education)
You don't try to make $100,000 ...You don’t start by saying, I’m going to make the biggest most profitable trade and turn $1000 into $100,000 and fix all my bad trades before.
You say, I’m going to plan and execute 1 trade as perfectly as I can today. You do that every single day, and soon you'll have a $100,000 and likely much more!
VKTX
After great results VKTX gapped up almost a 100%. My natural inclination is to go short for some profit taking and then watch for a trend. All day seller, or grinder higher.
The levels I provide are a mix of math and intuition. Check out how we popped rejected 72.50, one could go short for profit taking there and target 58. We dipped right to there! This was one of the ideas I shared yesterday.
After the initial drop, vwap was reclaimed after the first hour and 66 turned into support. Once it was back over vwap once more I decided to get long targeting 88-90.
In a nutshell this is a great example of following my process to trade the levels. Wait for reaction to levels, and then target 2 to 4 levels to come after. Start taking profits at either 1 or 2 levels away depending on the setup. and then scale out as each level is hit. Rinse and repeat on the next stock with momentum.
TSLA
nice gap up and filled the gap. I was wrong on my timing on this and the strength. I was thinking gap fill or partial gap fill and then onwards and upwards but market had its own idea yesterday. I took 205c and got stopped but I also took 195p because of Edge Trade Planner.
The option scanner provided this alert. Considering it was $10 out of the money I was interested because what if TSLA the whole gap back?
Here is the plan I made for entry.
My take profit targets were 1.50, 1.90, and 2.20. We got all of those!
TSLA started ripping right out of the gate. My guess is sympathy to LI. I missed the entry for the long so I waited for 200 for a scalp short. I got 50% off a small gain and stopped at breakeven on the other half. TSLA was too strong! Usually it gives a deeper dip, but this time it didn’t.
Going to be a broken record here. Notice the double top and then break under vwap and how it is backtested and rejected? That is how I combine the alert to show big money and price action to establish a good risk/reward trade.
SPY
SPY consolidated in a tight range most of yesterday and then gave a failed breakdown reversal mid day.
I tried going short a little late per plan on if I sat 505 break I would take puts but quickly got stopped out on that. I then planned a long upon 505.75 reclaim, but I was too far out of the money and we didn’t get the big push/squeeze into the close I wanted. So while I was greedy and trying for a big win, I should have watched the Option Scanner more closely. If I had Edge nailed the contract selection and trade plan. I’m running out of time, but it is once of the coolest things. I’ll make a video on it and share it.
Summary Review of Market Price Action
Overall bids were light and market focus on profit taking. It could be positioning and de-risking ahead of PCE on Thursday. That said a late afternoon push developed to keep SPY from making a 3rd red day.
Educational Lessons
From the price action review you should have learned the following:
Wait for the levels to plan trades
You can plan trade short and long on the same day
Use Edge Trade Planner’s scanner to find trades.
Be aware of multi-day sequences to look for reversals.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Wednesday Feb 28
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
SPY is unexpectedly gapping down and has broken yesterday’s lows. Given the recent large gap and go this could be just some backfilling.
Semi chip stocks
Semi-conductor chip stocks have been selling off last 3 days since making highs. This is healthy but now we have to watch closely for a long opportunity or is it time for some corrective/selling now that NVDA’s e/r is past.
I’ll be watching the 9ma on the daily. a break of that and I might consider short, and test of that for a long.
The primary stocks I’m watching: SPY, NVDA, VKTX
Read on for my thoughts/plan for today.