Will Powell's comments lead to a 2nd Red Day in SPY? Trade Ideas for Wed Sep 24
Powell's comments lead to an impressive unusual 200%+ increase in volume during lunch hour! Will this lead to more selling?
High Probability Idea - FAIL
There are going to be days, where your best idea or even any of you ideas don’t play out. And that’s what we got yesterday.
The high probability idea for a short was right, but the pop entry goal is where we failed.
But being traders with a diverse tool kit and ones that know how to read price action we can still make plans targeting the levels I provide. I’ll cover that iin the video.
Given the bearish Idea I was prepared that if a sudden rip came I could add to my bear calls and I would be just fine and if just went sideways all day I would be fine too.
Round 1
Round 2
What are bear calls?
They are a way that you and I can be the house! I do a vertical spread selling for credit. And remember all those options you take that go to 0. Well that’s how I can profit on time and decay.
I like to use this method when I have high conviction AND I’m having trouble getting my deep discount shopping on directional bets..
VIDEO LESSON of SPY/SPX Trade Ideas
SORRY I WAITED 30 minutes for the video to process by substack. not sure what happened but had to publish without
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Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
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Plan for Wed Sep 24
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
SPY futures indicate a bullish open after yesterday’s close at 663.23, with premarket action pushing prices higher amid light volume, but I’ll be watching for a push fail.
Market Context - Guard Against Upside Traps
SPY shows a bullish bias in premarket trading, trading at 664.25 as of the latest 1-minute bar, up 0.15% from the previous close and just below the pivot at 664.43. Over the last 5 days, the index has exhibited choppy consolidation between 660 and 667, with frequent failed breakdowns below 661 support on higher volume days, suggesting potential reversal setups if today’s open respects key levels. Chart patterns reveal a series of higher lows since September 19, pointing to upward momentum unless resistances at 666.88 cap gains early or 665.50 gives a nasty rejection.
Disclaimer: Not financial advice; consult a professional.
Key Events Today
No major events scheduled today, potentially leading to range-bound action.
Key Levels and Their Significance
675.15 - Projected R3
669.79 - Resistance: Standard R2 level; acts as barrier for upward failed breakouts, aligned with Fibonacci extension from recent 5-day low,
666.88 - High Priority - Resistance: R1 level near premarket high; key for failed breakout reversals above pivot, clear rejection on 1-minute chart yesterday with elevated volume, 65% probability from 3 recent bounces, for day traders, most active at open.
664.43 - High Priority Pivot: Central balance point; supports reversal setups on tests, coincides with premarket consolidation low, average volume hold over 5 days, 70% probability of interaction, versatile for scalpers and swings, relevant from open through lunch.
661.52 - High Priority - Support: S1 level within 0.5% of current price; frequent failed breakdowns in data show reversal potential, volume spike on September 22 test exceeding 2x average, 75% probability based on 4 holds in range, for beginners and professionals, key early morning level.
659.07 - Support: S2 level from previous close; targets failed breakdown reversals on downside breaks, historical support from September 19 low with volume confirmation, 60% probability from 2x average volume spikes on approaches, suitable for cautious investors, relevant in afternoon if downside breaks.
659.07 - Support: S1 level; potential failed breakdown zone, near multi-day low from September 17, aligned with prior reversal point on low-volume pullbacks, 55% probability from data patterns, for experienced traders, active post-open if momentum fades.
Tips for Recognizing When a Trade Idea Is in Play
Volume Confirmation: Look for volume >2x average on reversal candles at the level to confirm participation.
Candle Rejection: Confirm with a bullish engulfing or hammer on 1-minute chart after touching the level.
Time Frame Alignment: Focus on open for initial tests, as 70% of 5-day reversals occurred within first hour.
Volume Spike Alert: Entry only if volume spikes on the reversal bar, avoiding low-volume fakes.
Price Action Hold: Wait for price to close back inside the range after breach to validate reversal.
Divergence Check: RSI divergence on 5-minute chart rising above 30 for longs or below 70 for shorts near level.