Whoa. SPY pulling back!!? Trade Ideas for Tuesday Aug 26
BOOM! We are 4/4 since i started the new blog with trade plans format!
Good morning!
With SPY pulling back in premarket but tech holding strong, we are in for a fun session. I’m a little worried we may be in for a lot of chop today.
RECAP
Another day Another Win for Planning! Yesterday the highest probabilty plan didn’t develop bot the gap fill fail and failed breakout eversal at 644.80 did!
I make and share multiple plans because we don’t know which setup will develop. But by having plans, you know what to do when they do develop. If you want to be alerted for when a trade ideas is now in focus or is confirmed. Stay tuned. I’m working on idea that automation. In the meantime, join the THT PRO group to learn patience, planning, and how to read price action.
The 644.80 short provided an excellent risk/reward short, but it tested a lot of patience. The nice thing was we got short using /ES with stops and let it work. I sold 80% per plan at 3-4R. and we got a bonus drop in last 5 minutes for 7R! on the runners.
Let’s review why it worked.
SPY/SPX
Trade Setup: Failed breakout reversal on 644.80/645 level
Notice the big red candle that broke multiple moving averages.. That was the weakness signal. at that point we can see the moving averages turning down and we want to enter near the 20ma. and can risk vs hod or even tighter at 645.
There is massive opportunity in this market. Are you taking advantage? Literally have planned and alerted trades that pay over 300-1000%! You will need patience to wait for entries and the exits. But if you have self discipline or trust bracket orders, my process can help you get the results you want.
What is Two Hour Trading?
Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
If you are busy and want to see my commentary and ideas in real time consider joining THT-PRO.
Education
How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows or failed breakdown reversal at key level
Join at VWAP mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Securing Profits on Options overnight
Sometimes you get this massive paper gains overnight on options but you can’t secure it right? Well if you have a big enough account and a margin account if you have calls you can. What you need to do is buy or sell the stock overnight. and the option turns into a hedge against that position essentially securing your profits.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Tue Aug 26
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Market Context
Good morning, traders! As we dive into another exciting day for SPY, the broader market is showing signs of resilience after a volatile week, with a slight bullish bias emerging from recent consolidations. The chart is painting a picture of a potential ascending triangle pattern on the daily, hinting at upside if resistances break, but watch for overbought signals on the RSI that could lead to quick pullbacks—perfect for our failed breakout and breakdown plays. The latest premarket close is at 641.64, sitting 0.1% below the central pivot of 642.5 and just above key support at 639.71, positioning us for potential bounces if early buying emerges or breakdowns if sentiment sours. With no major catalysts today, expect choppy action around these levels—stay sharp, and let's make today count!
Key Events Today
10:00 am - Consumer confidence
1:00 pm - Bond Auction
Key Levels and Their Significance
652.52: Projected resistance
647.51: Overhead resistance from multi-day highs; key for failed breakout shorts amid rallies, 70% probability from frequent rejections, ideal for scalpers,
644.72 - High Priority: Upper resistance with volume spikes >2x average; aligns with recent rally peaks for failed breakouts, 75% probability based on 3 bounces last week, for intraday traders, strong in afternoon.
642.5 - High Priority: Central pivot merging with data-derived frequent bounce point; flips for failed breakdowns/breakouts, 80% probability from reversal patterns, versatile for all traders, active throughout.
639.71: Support from multi-day lows and bounces; high for failed breakdown longs, 70% probability via Fibonacci alignment, for swing setups, morning relevance.
637.49: Lower support with volume spikes; potential failed breakdown reversals, 65% probability from historical holds, scalper-friendly, mid-day focus.
632.48 - High Priority: Deep support near 5-day low; strong reversal if failed breakdown occurs, 75% probability based on spikes >2x avg volume, for aggressive swings, late-session.
Intraday Trade Ideas for 2025-08-26
Premarket action has SPY stabilizing around 641.64, just below the pivot at 642.5, suggesting a mild bullish bias if supports hold, but with room for breakdowns if global sentiment weighs in.
Risk/reward ratios are set ≥1:2 for disciplined entries.
Failed Breakdown Reversal Long at 641.00
Setup: Price dips below 639.71 support but reverses with bullish candle.
Entry: Above 641.00 on confirmation.
Stop Loss: 640.30 (0.7 points risk).
Targets: 642.50, 644.72 (1.5–3.72 points profit).
Rationale: Near premarket lows, aligns with support bounces and volume spikes; failed breakdown traps sellers for quick upside.
Failed Breakout Reversal Short at 642.80
Setup: Push above 642.5 pivot fails with rejection wick.
Entry: Below 642.80 on bearish confirmation.
Stop Loss: 643.50 (0.7 points risk).
Targets: 641.00, 639.71 (1.8–3.09 points profit).
Rationale: Proximity to pivot and premarket price; data shows frequent rejections here, high edge in range-bound setup.
Failed Breakdown Reversal Long at 639.00
Setup: Breach of 639.71 rebounds strongly.
Entry: Above 639.00 with volume surge.
Stop Loss: 638.00 (1.0 points risk).
Targets: 642.50, 644.72 (3.5–5.72 points profit).
Rationale: multi-day low with reversal history, strong if early support holds.
Failed Breakout Reversal Short at 645.00
Setup: Attempt above 644.72 resistance reverses.
Entry: Below 645.00 on downside momentum.
Stop Loss: 646.00 (1.0 points risk).
Targets: 642.50, 639.71 (2.5–5.29 points profit).
Rationale: Close to upper resistance (0.5%); volume spikes indicate likely rejection for shorts.
Highest Probability Trade Idea
The Failed Breakdown Reversal Long at 641.00 stands out with an estimated 75% edge—its proximity to premarket close (0.1% below) and alignment with strong support at 639.71, backed by historical bounces and volume data, make it prime for quick reversals in a low-event day.
More Tips for Recognizing When a Trade Idea Is in Play
Volume Confirmation: Look for spikes >2x average on reversal candles—signals conviction in failed breaks, avoiding false moves.
Candle Patterns: Watch for hammers/dojis at levels; these often precede failed breakdowns, especially on 1-min charts.
Time of Day Bias: Open and close hours amp volatility—focus failed breakouts here for higher probability entries.
Multi-Timeframe Alignment: Confirm with 5-min chart; if higher timeframe supports the level, the reversal edge jumps 20%.
Risk Management: Always scale in near watch zones (±0.3%); trail stops on profits to lock in gains from quick reversals.
News Filter: Even on quiet days, monitor headlines—sudden events can invalidate setups, so pause if volatility spikes.
Good luck today! For live alerts, market commentary, and access to Edge Trade Planner click the button below.
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Disclaimer: All content provided is for educational and entertainment purposes only. It should not be considered financial advise or a recommendation to buy or sell a security. The content is the author’s opinion only and may or may not be accurate. Author may or may not have positions in securities and may or may not open a position in next 48 hours.