Where will SPY find support? Trade Ideas for Thursday May 15
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Yesterday’s close put in a mini double top and established some toppy action opening the door for a short again. My plan look to see if 586 broke overnight and if so go short. In hindsight, I should have kept adding to /ES short over 5900 as long as 5930 didn’t clear. Took short on seeing SPY 586 break and also too SPX 5820p for 4.60.
After so many green days and large moves to the upside yesterday gave us an indecision candle. In theory /ES 5850 and 5815 are targets below. That gives us roughly SPY 581.50 and 577 for downside targets.
Yesterday I also told members I am planning to take AAPL 210p for next week and into June. Those should pay off nicely unless something saves the market today.
The big question for today, is what will happen at the open. Will we get a sell program? We SPY make a move for the gap fill or at least test the 200ma in coming days?
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Overnight Action
SPY - broke 586.30 support overnight and has dipped to 583.50 so far.
AAPL - dipping to 210.
NVDA - dipping to 132
TSLA - gapping down to 335
Overall let’s see what happens today. Assuming today turns into the first red day, tomorrow could be a big follow through sell day.
ANNOUNCEMENT: STARTING TODAY I will be publishing after market close and will give comments in morning after first hour. Why? I’m changing my schedule so that I can sleep in/work on other things. I usually wake up at 6:30am and shoot to publish aby 8am local tome and then don’t actual make trades until after 10:30 or 11:00am. and 90% of profits are now coming in last 30 minutes. Its inefficient use of time.
What is Two Hour Trading?
Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
Trade Recap for Wed May 14
GOLD BOLD ITALIC = price action signal
SOFT YELLOW = thinking/anticipation
WHITE REGULAR = action to take/taken
GREEN REGULAR = trades I should have taken
SPY / SPX
Overall choppy day and one had to plan the failed reversals. I owe members a video on how i did entries for the reversal at 11am. Basically classic failed breakdown reversal.
GET EXCITED. I’ll be publishing a book called Trading To Win: Stop trading to NOT lose. Title is still in the works. I plan to include exercises to help you improve your mindset and your trading. Leave a comment or send me a message if interested in the book. My birthday is coming in May - I hope to release this before then.
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Education
How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows or failed breakdown reversal at key level
Join at VWAP mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Thur May 15
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
Will need to see how the market reacts to data and Powell today. Overall will sell programs and take profit action begin today?