When will this rally end? Spectre Special delivers 500%+ in 10 minutes. Trade Ideas for Wed May 14
Are you planning trades that pay over 5 times your risk? Learn how to, in today's blog.
One of the things that is essential to my trading process is support backtests and failed breakdowns. Or failed breakouts leading to a support back test.
In this rally, we have not had any major support tests for SPY. None. Nada. Zilch. It makes it incredibly difficult for me to go long with any size and to get meaningful reward for risk.
That is one hundred percent ok. There will be times like this in the market. There will be missed gains, opportunity, but most importantly there will also be avoided losses.
It’s essential to know your process and when to trade and when not to for your specific system. There will also be other opportunities which is i don’t strictly trade SPY/SPX only. I like asymmetric risk/reward.
Yesterday, Moe in the THT PRO group alerted that NVDA 130c had a lot of volume around .35 the day before. It was 0.60-0.70 yesterday. Looking at my levels. 133-135 is very doable. So I scooped some, risking 50% target $3-5. at 0.70 to $4 using 0.35 risk that is about 9R. Bet. It got close to $3.
One of the things I look for is support validation and large range potential. This came on PLTR yesterday. From 1.3 to 3.9 for 200% gains!
The point I’m trying to make is that it is super important to know your process/system, and be able to define risk/reward. The levels and process I share let you do just that.
Per plan I was done at 11:30am with a plan to come back at 3pm. I will change that to 3:30pm today.
In the recap section I will cover the SPX Trades including the SPX 5900p for $2 that went to $14+ (I predicted 10-15)
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Overnight Action
SPY - tested 586.30 support overnight and then pushed to 588s again
AMD - gapping up to 117 toward 120 target.
NVDA - gapping up to 333 toward 335 target
TSLA - gapping over 340! target 350-360 target
Overall market continues to consolidate and grind higher without any major support tests. I will continue to scalp up and down, but I can’t in good conscience put long term money to work to swing long without a major back test of at least the 200ma.
That said it seems like algos have triggered relentless buying on the close over 200ma.
It is 100% OK for me to not worry about long term swing entry trades, because that isn’t my core niche. I’ll have to continue to “suffer” through 200-1000% gainer trades because it is what I’m great at. Hopefully in 2025, I have my algo complete and I can take a break from watching screens.
What is Two Hour Trading?
Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
Trade Recap for Tue May 13
GOLD BOLD ITALIC = price action signal
SOFT YELLOW = thinking/anticipation
WHITE REGULAR = action to take/taken
GREEN REGULAR = trades I should have taken
SPY / SPX
it was clear we were headed higher. I wanted 5870c for 3-4 but took it at 9. it ran to 35+. I then started looking for possible failed breakouts for a short. getting small gains, but no follow through until the very last one during last half hour. That paid!
$2.50→15. I was happy with 300% and missed the 500% exit.
GET EXCITED. I’ll be publishing a book called Trading To Win: Stop trading to NOT lose. Title is still in the works. I plan to include exercises to help you improve your mindset and your trading. Leave a comment or send me a message if interested in the book. My birthday is coming in May - I hope to release this before then.
If you are busy and want to see my commentary and ideas in real time consider joining THT-PRO.
Education
How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows or failed breakdown reversal at key level
Join at VWAP mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Wed May 14
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
We continue to run. SPY 590-592 could be on deck today. I will likely wait for failed breakout scalps. and will also focus on credit selling bear calls. maybe SPX 5930/35 calls for $2+
Given data and Powell tomorrow, today could be a consolidation day, but I’m waiting for the sell trigger to activate.