Trump flinches! SPY is gapping up. AAPL flies. Trade Ideas for Mon Apr 14
Have you ever had a Spectre Special? A trade that does 500%+ in under an hour?
Friday was incredibly difficult for options. Especially if short biased. Why? Because of the way the option contracts pricing premium and theta decay aligned. During the week we could take contracts far OTM and get paid. But on Friday with a transition from high IV, high VIX that no longer worked.
Be sure to read the recap where I’ve highlighted the only 3 spots I believe a reasonable long opportunity for entry for options were.
Worst, I totally read the long, but I couldn’t accept switching my bias. Not only did I read it correctly, Edge Option Scanner nailed the identification for the long and which contracts! The scanner caught volume on long calls and put credit sells!
So next time, regardless, if I have the technical read, and their are secondary confirmations, I need to let go of my bias. Usually I’m much more nimble mentally.
The 5340c did this after
$12→ 54 in 2 hours!
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What is Two Hour Trading?
Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
Trade Recap for Fri Apr 11
GOLD BOLD ITALIC = price action signal
WHITE REGULAR = action to take/taken
GREEN REGULAR = trades I should have taken
SPY / SPX
I totally botched flipping long. when all the signals to go long aligned around 11:30.
Executed the short correct. Also taking bull puts on hod break, but missed the big 400%+ payout trade in 2 hours. Then at 1:30 when we backtested the break volume came reversal volume came in.
That was the 2nd 400% gainer opportunity I missed. I had an off day !
Guys when you have an “off” day, don’t beat yourself up. That will happen. The important thing is did you execute well or not. Especially if you are following my process. If execute well and are wrong and honor stops you will be fine. Then when back on the right side of reads and execution, those payouts will pay for the off days. Remember - We had an incredible week!
Have faith in process and being systematic. It is that faith that has kept me sane and alive in trading.
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Education - How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows/failed breakdown reversal
Join at vwap mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Education - Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Mon Apr 14
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
Finally feeling a lot better! 80% back.
So market is gapping up after weekend news. My incrimination is to see a mini rally at open, exhaustion, and then ideally some gap fill to back test the gap and then get long again for levels up to be tested. That said, we have to keep an eye out for where/when steady selling comes in. Especially from anyone who might feel left holding the bag after the recent major drop.