Today's end of Q3. Will it bring range in SPY? Trade Ideas for Tue Sep 30
Learn from my mistakes in today blog and get key levels for trading SPY.
I’m a little frustrated at myself with my performance yesterday. I missed 2 obvious trade setups by being overly biased and tired. On the other hand I started the day up on my overnight futures trading over 5k if I remember right so the pressure to perform wasn’t there and I could wait for what I really wanted.
Watch the video to see what happened and learn how I read the action.
VIDEO LESSON of SPY/SPX Trade Ideas
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Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
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Plan for Tue Sep 30
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Premarket pullback tests support—spot reversals for quick edges.
Market Context
SPY’s premarket action shows a close at 662.74, sitting below the pivot at 663.62 but holding above key support at 661.45, with light volume suggesting consolidation after last week’s volatility. Over the past five days, the 1-minute chart reveals repeated failed breakdowns below 662, bouncing with volume spikes over 2x average near 661.50, pointing to a neutral-to-bullish bias if support holds, but watch for rejection at resistance 665.39 to avoid downside traps.
Key Events Today
No major events scheduled today, potentially leading to range-bound action.
** TODAY IS End of Quarter which can bring rebalancing volume
Key Levels and Their Significance
671.5 - Resistance: Upper extended target from multi-day highs
667.56 - Resistance: Secondary resistance aligned with 09-23 intraday high; key for spotting failed upside moves
665.39 - High Priority Resistance: Near-term barrier above pivot; targets failed breakouts with clear 1-minute chart rejections in 09-26 data, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement from recent low, 65% probability based on 4 holds in last 5 days, for day traders, most active at market open.
663.62 - Pivot: Central balance point; acts as magnet for reversals, with volume spikes >2x on tests in 09-29 session, 70% probability of range hold from consolidation patterns, versatile for scalpers or swings, relevant throughout session as price oscillates nearby.
661.45 - High Priority Support: Immediate downside level; ideal for failed breakdown longs, frequent bounces in 09-25 data with 2.5x volume, 75% probability from multi-day lows alignment, suits beginners for low-risk entries, active in early trading if dip occurs.
659.68 - Support: Mid-range floor; signals deeper failed breakdowns, aligned with 09-24 low where reversal volume spiked 3x average, 60% probability based on historical support holds, for experienced traders on pullbacks, relevant mid-session during consolidations.
655.74 - Support: Extreme lower bound; guards against major breakdowns, tied to 09-25 session low with strong reversal candle, 45% probability if breached but quick recovery in data, for cautious investors on oversold bounces, late-session relevance if selling accelerates.
Tips for Recognizing When a Trade Idea Is in Play
Watch for volume >2x average on approach to level for confirmation of interest.
Look for rejection candles (e.g., hammer/doji) on 1-minute chart at key levels.
Confirm bias with premarket trend; upward volume favors longs near supports.
Avoid entry if price gaps beyond 1% of level without pullback.
Monitor for failed move: Quick reversal within 5-10 minutes post-test.
Exit partial if halfway to target without momentum fade.
Disclaimer: Not financial advice; consult a professional.