The 95% Problem—Do You Chase or Fold?

How I Turned a Perfect Trade Into a Game of Catch-Up

Swing Trade Thesis #1: MSFT Going to 420+

I had a strong conviction that MSFT would move like AAPL did last week— that MSFT is going over 420. My plan? Snag the 417.50c for as cheap as possible, with a goal entry of 0.25.

• I watched as MSFT contracts dipped to 0.27, then 0.30, then 0.35—but my 0.25 orders didn’t fill.

• The real emotional moment hit when MSFT rallied to 1.10, then dipped back to 0.70. At that point, I knew 0.25 wasn’t happening. Do I “chase” or fold?

I had a decision to make. My plan was to grab 100 contracts with a sub-0.35 average, but I only had 35 contracts with 0.32 average. I wasn’t getting my dream fill, so I placed a dip order to double up at 0.58, risking $600

Outcome:

• MSFT broke out of consolidation from under 412 and ripped to 415. Contracts hit $2 by the close.

• Pre-market update: MSFT hit 419 and is currently sitting at 417—the thesis is playing out!

THT PRO members already knew to get in on this — on Tuesday, I told them I had orders at 0.30. Imagine how they feel seeing their position run to 2.00 yesterday and this morning seeing the gap up to 419!! What a swing trade!

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Day Trade Thesis #2: SPX Will Reach 6145

Using my SPX levels, I was targeting SPX 6145 and SPY 612.50+. But first, I needed a backtest of SPY 609.25 to get my ideal $1-$1.50 entry.

• I entered at 3, got stopped out, then re-entered at 2.80.

• My goal? 6130c hitting $13-$15. My first profit targets were 6 and 8.

Outcome:

• Round 1: SPX 6130 hit 10, I took profit at 9, then set reload orders at 2.

• Round 2: SPY retested VWAP, THT PRO members jumped in at 3—but I missed it. I wanted a double bottom on vwap. Do I “chase” or fold? I chased back in at 5 with smaller size. This time, SPX ran to 18.

Not quite the 300% gain I wanted, but still almost 200% on the chase. I was too cheap at $2, but the play still worked out.

I love that members don’t wait for me to alert entries. They’ve learned the process and take action without fear! Members posted they jumped in at $3 for the reload!

Day Trade Thesis #3: SMCI will reach 63.70+

Using my SMCI levels, I was targeting 63.70. But first, I needed a backtest of the previous close at 56. This would result in a measured move to 64+

• I wanted to get in on 60c on gap fill, but was looking away. Do I “chase” or fold?

• I entered 62c at 1.75 stops at 1.25, after I saw it basing above vwap

• My goal? 62c hitting $4.50-7.

Outcome:

• We got 4.5 and 6.20

• Risked 0.50 and made over $3.50 for over 7R

Not quite the 300% gain I wanted, but still over 200%.

I love that members joined this idea when I said I like SMCI long and how it is basing over vwap. One member messaged me saying he took SMCI 60c on the gap fill. Those went up over 500% congrats!

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Key Takeaways & Lessons

✅ Near all-time highs, don’t push for the next-level move. (I overtraded the close making 100% gains only)
✅ Automate SPX contract purchases when SPY reaches VWAP on strong trend days. Will test out conditional buy orders at Interactive Brokers.
✅ Scalping for 100% gains is fun but not worth my energy. I want high-probability 200-500% gainer only.

✅ Planning entries and exits for systematic profits simply works and is stress free

If you weren’t in the group, you were probably scrambling to figure out what was happening. If you were? You had the playbook before the market even moved.

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Final Thoughts

The day felt zen-like. Planning, patience, and execution did the heavy lifting—entries were the real work, exits took care of themselves. Edge Planner did a great job ensuring collecting profits consistently.

But… the VWAP entry miss still stings. The lesson? The market rewards patience, but it also punishes being too cheap.

Yesterday’s trades aren’t hindsight—they are from planning, and members knew it. If you don’t want to keep playing catch-up, it’s time to level up. Join us before the next move sets up.

I’d love to hear your war stories—drop them in the comments!