SPY Trade ideas for 08-14-26
Yesterday highest probability idea was wrong! But we still profited. Here is how...
Good morning all.
Yesterday highest probability idea was wrong! But we still made money. Here is how…
I wrote that there was a 70% chance of rejection, but that leaves 30% chance it breaks through. It it did so with volume.
In the chart below, we saw an opening dip and then 775 punched through. Then a dip at 9:45am into vwap and the green line hold and trend resume strongly. At this point, I’m taking bull puts and expecting the rally to run at least until 10:30am and toward the next level around 781 but also potential exhaustion anywhere between 779-781 because of psychological number.
We also have to remember that have a gap up after a multi week rally into a new high and so I’m also looking for any exhaustion after the first hour. And we got just that.
The credit selling was easy. Took 7735 bull puts at open, then took 7780 bull puts once vwap held at 9:45. These went to 0. Then on exhaustion took 7805 bear calls.
I also did yolo puts that went 100-300% I think, but don’t remember, I just know I didn’t get the 10-20x I wanted if we got the full gap up reversal play.
Overall I know many of you who followed me were looking for those 10-20x plays. I use to live and die by them but its so much work. And my priorities have changed. I want simpler, stress free profits with less baby sitting and higher win rates.
I’m stilling enjoying 20-50% returns on the capital deployed with 80% win rate — profits add up.
Same process I’ve been following, but lets needing to guess exact entry prices and baby sitting, with time decay working in my favor when I’m wrong on magnitude of move.
Let’s see what today brings.
How to use AlphaOS to recognize shift in momentum
Process = Profits
Lately I’ve been doing the following:
Premarket establish where we likely wont reach. Sell premium for 0.8-0.60 on open.
After 11: second positioning of credit sells.
After 3:30: start hawking/planning for a Spectre Special
What’s a Spectre Special? A yolo trade that goes 300-1000% in under 30 min.
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SPY at 778.77 Eyes R1 for Quick Reversals
R1 at 780.75 sets up the cleanest failed breakout play today.
Market Context
SPY is trading at 778.77 in premarket, sitting just below the nearest key resistance at R1 780.75. Price has held above the pivot at 776.65 through the overnight session with steady volume, keeping a mild bullish bias intact unless R1 rejects cleanly. Focus stays on the 778–781 zone for the first directional move.
