SPY Records Rare 11.5pt Fall: Day Trading Ideas for Apr 5
SPY Records Rare 11.5pt Fall: Day Trading Ideas for Apr 5
Bulls get clowned paying 20-100x to bears
The day before yesterday I wrote about how I wanted to get long, but yesterday, I wrote I wanted to load up short. What gives? It’s chess. The setup and action from last few days showed that there was imho selling happening at the highs. We then had the news from Powell and confirmation from fed speakers yesterday about a delay in rate hikes.
It’s scary sometimes about being so right. First I was looking for the short squeeze by the bulls (thus the long play) and I wanted to reshort as I did the previous week, but this time in the 523-524 zone for the bull trap.
The flush played out perfectly and if you took the swing idea from yesterday’s blog, you should have made at least 2x with far dated contracts, and over 10x with contracts just 5 days out. If you went 0DTE or tomorrow, you would have made over 30x!
There may not be great trade setups everyday, and sometimes I even get chopped up, but that is ok because I trade everyday waiting and biding my time for when trades like these setup! This are the trades that can substantially grow your account.
In today’s blog, I’ll cover the technicals/logic and how I planned and traded the action.
I’ll then share ideas for how I plan to trade today after yesterday’s dramatic drop.
Introduction (for New Readers)
Welcome to my blog on Two Hour Trading, your daily source for market insights and trading opportunities. In this blog, I will provide you with a comprehensive analysis of the market, educational lessons, and trade ideas to help you stay ahead in your trading journey and best of all doing it less than two hours a day.
What Subscribers Get
Subscribers to this blog will receive daily updates on market analysis, educational content, and up to three trade ideas each morning, all based on real-life examples and my personal approach to trading.
NOTE: screenshots from chat are from Edge Trade Planner. A platform available to THT PRO members. Join Us for live commentary and planning. Note my goal is to actively trade less than 2 hours a day finding 1 to 4 great trades a day.
What is Two Hour Trading?
It’s my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to setup. Key benefits:
High Quality trades with great reward vs risk
Avoid Overtrading and losses from it
Trading to Win vs Trading to Not Lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Alert Leaderboard
(I’ve decided to include a leaderboard so you can see what potential the 2 Hour Trading System has)
The following is based on entry alerts.
Apr 4 - SPX 5250p - Entry $4 ($4000→ $100k potential)
Apr 4 - SPX 5180p - Entry $1.30 ($1300 > $32k potential)
Apr 3 - SPX 5175/5170 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
Apr 2 - SPX 5175/5170 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
Apr 2 - SPX 5205/5200 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
Mar 27 - SPX 5230c Entry $1.20 - High after $19 ($1200 → $19000 potential)
Mar 26 - SPX 5215p Entry $1.20 - High after $11.50 ($1200 → $11500 potential)
Mar 25 - SPX 5210p Entry $0.50 - High after $6.50 ($500 → $6500 potential)
Mar 22 - LULU 390p Entry $1.25 - High after $5.7 ($1125 → $5700 potential)
Mar 21 - SMCI 1000c Entry $4.80 - High after $22.60 ($480 → $2260 potential)
Mar 21 - SMCI 1000c Entry $4.80 - High after $22.60 ($480 → $2260 potential)
Mar 20 - SPX 4200c Entry $7.50 - High after $27.12 ($750 → $2710 potential)
Mar 19 - SPX 4170c Entry $1.10 - High after $11.30 ($1100 → $11300 potential)
Mar 18 - GOOGL 147p Entry $0.65 - High after $1.71 ($650 → $1700 potential)
*runner reached $2Mar 18 - SMCI 900p Entry $10 - High after $30 ($1000 → $3000 potenital)
*runner reached $60!Mar 14 - SPX 5150c Entry $3 - High after $10.50 ($3000 → $10500 potential)
Mar 12 - SPX 5150c Entry $4 - High after $27.50 ($4000 → $27500 potential)
Mar 11 - SPX 5120c Entry $3 - High after 7.50 ($3000 → $7500 potential)
Mar 8 - SMCI 1150p Entry $5 - High after $56.20 ($500 → $5620 potential)
Mar 8 - AMD 220c Entry $0.50 - High after $7.65 ($500 → $7650 potential)
Mar 7 - SPX 5175c Entry $0.50 - High after $2.40 ($500→ $2400 potential)
Mar 6 - SPX 5120c Entry $3.50 - High after $12+ ($3500→ $12000 potential)
Mar 5 - SPX 5070c Entry $0.50 - High after $10.75 ($500 → $10750 potential)
** alerted 0.30 entry wanted. dipped to 0.40. entered at 0.50Mar 5 - SPX 5070p Entry $1 - High after $13.50 ($1000 → $13500 potential)
Mar 4 - SMCI 1200c Entry $33 - High after $61 ($3300 —> $6100 potential)
Mar 1 - SPX 5120c Entry $2 - High after $20 ($2000 —> $20000 potential)
Feb 29 - SPX 5095c Entry 0.50 - High after $10 ($500 —> $10000 potential)
Feb 29 - SPX 5100c Entry 0.30 - High after $5+ ($300 —> $5000 potential)
Feb 27 - TSLA 195p Entry 0.90 - High after $2.30+ ($900 —> $2300 potential)
Feb 26 - SPX 5070p Entry 0.20 - High after $2. ($200 —> $2000 potential)
Feb 23 - NVDA 800p Entry 2.50 - High after $25.11 ($3000 → $25110 potential)
**Dipped to 2.57 (had to chase entry 3)
Feb 23 - NVDA 820c Entry 2.25 (swing from Thursday) - High after $25.00 ($2250 → $25000 potential)
Feb 22 - SPX 4090c Entry $2.50 - High after $9.20 ($2500 → $9200 potential)
Feb 16 - SMCI 1000p Entry $11 - High after $195 ($1100 → $19500 potential)
Feb 15 - TSLA 195c. Entry $1.20 - High after 5.95 ($1200 → $5950 potential)
Feb 14 - NVDA 720p. Entry $4.5 - High after $12 ($4500 → $12000 potential)
Feb 13 - SPX 4955p. Entry $5 - High after $34 ($5000 → $34000 potential)
Feb 12 - ARM 180c. Entry $1.20 - High after $14.10 ($1200 → $14000 potential)
Feb08 - ARM 100c. Entry $5 - High after $27.50. ($5000 → $27500 potential)
Feb07 - TSLA 185c. Entry $2.53 - Hight after $5.60 ($2530 —> $5600 potential)
Feb05 - SPX 4940c. Entry $3 - High after $16.60 ($3000 → $16,600 potential)
Feb02 - AMD 180c. Entry 0.15 - High after $1 ($1500 —> $10000 potential)
Jan 29 - SPX 4910c. Entry $1 - High after $20 ($1000 —> $20000 potential)
Jan 26 - NFLX 570c. Entry $0.50 - High after $9.85 ($500 → $9850 potential)
Jan 25 - TSLA 185p. Entry $1.5 - High after $6.3 ($1500 → $6300 potential)
Jan 24 - SPX 4890p Entry $1.50 - High after $22 ($1500 → $22000 potential)
Jan 24 - SPX 4880p Entry $0.50 - High after $12 ($500 → $6000 potential)
Jan 17 - SPX 4740c Entry $0.20 - High after $2.80 ($200→ $2800 potential)
Jan 17 - SPX 4740c Entry $1.20 - High after $12 ($1200→ $12000 potential)
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
For live alerts and market commentary click the button below.
Thursday’s Price Action (Education)
You don't try to make $100,000 ...You don’t start by saying, I’m going to make the biggest most profitable trade and turn $1000 into $100,000 and fix all my bad trades before.
You say, I’m going to plan and execute 1 trade as perfectly as I can today. You do that every single day, and soon you'll have a $100,000 and likely much more!
SPY/SPX
Yesterday I wrote I wanted to get short in SPY 523-524 zone! And that paid off. Let’s go over the technicals and how to have entered IF you missed the initial move and setup.
In the above chart, you can see how the price action aligns with idea I had. Just because I wanted to go short between 523-524, I didn’t. I saw the push, but we were moving into my no trade time zone between 11:45 and 1pm. And so I hit the gym.
When I got back I could easily recognize what was happening. THIS IS THE KEY to improve your trading. Do not worry about catching the best price, catch the best price AFTER the turn has happened. with 0DTE that can often be nearly the same price it was an hour before. Don’t worry about $2-3 when $20-50 of profit potential is there.
In the chart above I show you how to recognize the fail, and where to begin planning and shorting. I also show how after covering on the first drop (I was expecting a bounce before a break), that I reloaded short but using lower strikes on the scalp trade. For the swing trade, there was nothing to do until major levels came.
So what if you missed the initial setup and move or getting short? There were 2 more chances. 1 was on the previous day break, and the second was on the major 517.50 support level break. You can see how I my entry and targeting was systematic. This isn’t a game of where must it go for me, but where it likely should, and joining trend. At each two level move I’m locking 80-90% of the position.
One thing I did do given the large move, was that I was confident we were not going back up so I started loading up on bear calls at different strikes for 1.50-0.70 with size. In my mind this was free money and I had a 97% probability of winning. (otherwise I wouldn’t risk max los of 3.50 for 1.50 gain). This was more like max draw down of 0.50-1 but by the end of day I will win. LEARN CREDIT SELLING!
So this pretty much covers yesterday’s main payer. I also took shorts in TSLA and NVDA as well as got long on TSLA for its squeeze but I’m out of time.
Key Lessons
Plan for 2 levels moves when trend in play to lock profits, and leave 10-20% as runners
Looking for breaks and rejection of levels to join trend. (Its not too late to join heaving selling)
When very sure about direction use credit selling (sometimes directional contracts get too juiced)
Its ok to get in after the turn even preferred when there is large range ahead
Trade Ideas - Plan for Friday Apr 5
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
After yesterday’s move, there is often 1 of 3 ways that things play out.
Major squeeze reversal
Small rally to backtest 1 to 2 levels above followed by selling
Pinned action as market digests recent move and market makers take advantage of selling premium.
With those thoughts in mind I’ll be watching
Today I will be watching: SPY, TSLA, and NVDA