SPY new highs on deck. SMCI Price Target Upgrade. My plan for trading Wed March 13
ARM IPO lockup expires today freeing up 90% of supply.
Good morning traders.
Great plans yesterday though I didn’t get the double bottom/dips I wanted to load up long on SMCI or NVDA. But that is the thing. You establish plans with great risk/reward and which ever plays out can pay you very well.
That is what happened yesterday. The plan for SPY/SPX I made more or less captured the entire move. Generally capturing 30% of the move is considered good/great, but I strive to capture 75%. That said, if you consider that 25-30% of the move might be needed for setup/confirmation then sizing in and taking profits on the next 30% could work while leaving runners to capture the balance many profitable traders go for. I’ll have to write up a blog on this philosphy difference and pros and cons. Leave a comment if interested.
I owe you all a webinar. Let’s plan to do it today at 6pm ET. I will post a comment to today’s blog with details and may send out another email.
With SPY on the verge of new all time highs, and SMCI and NVDA gapping up there will be more opportunity today.
Let’s review yesterdays’ action and talk then I’ll go into 3 trade ideas for today…
Introduction (for New Readers)
Welcome to my blog on Two Hour Trading, your daily source for market insights and trading opportunities. In this blog, I will provide you with a comprehensive analysis of the market, educational lessons, and trade ideas to help you stay ahead in your trading journey and best of all doing it less than two hours a day.
What Subscribers Get
Subscribers to this blog will receive daily updates on market analysis, educational content, and up to three trade ideas each morning, all based on real-life examples and my personal approach to trading.
NOTE: screenshots from chat are from Edge Trade Planner. A platform available to THT PRO members. Join Us for live commentary and planning. Note my goal is to actively trade less than 2 hours a day finding 1 to 4 great trades a day.
What is Two Hour Trading?
It’s my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to setup. Key benefits:
High Quality trades with great reward vs risk
Avoid Overtrading and losses from it
Trading to Win vs Trading to Not Lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Alert Leaderboard
(I’ve decided to include a leaderboard so you can see what potential the 2 Hour Trading System has)
The following is based on entry alerts.
Mar 12 - SPX 5150c Entry $4 - High after $27.50 ($4000 → $27500 potential)
Mar 11 - SPX 5120c Entry $3 - High after 7.50 ($3000 → $7500 potential)
Mar 8 - SMCI 1150p Entry $5 - High after $56.20 ($500 → $5620 potential)
Mar 8 - AMD 220c Entry $0.50 - High after $7.65 ($500 → $7650 potential)
Mar 7 - SPX 5175c Entry $0.50 - High after $2.40 ($500→ $2400 potential)
Mar 6 - SPX 5120c Entry $3.50 - High after $12+ ($3500→ $12000 potential)
Mar 5 - SPX 5070c Entry $0.50 - High after $10.75 ($500 → $10750 potential)
** alerted 0.30 entry wanted. dipped to 0.40. entered at 0.50Mar 5 - SPX 5070p Entry $1 - High after $13.50 ($1000 → $13500 potential)
Mar 4 - SMCI 1200c Entry $33 - High after $61 ($3300 —> $6100 potential)
Mar 1 - SPX 5120c Entry $2 - High after $20 ($2000 —> $20000 potential)
Feb 29 - SPX 5095c Entry 0.50 - High after $10 ($500 —> $10000 potential)
Feb 29 - SPX 5100c Entry 0.30 - High after $5+ ($300 —> $5000 potential)
Feb 27 - TSLA 195p Entry 0.90 - High after $2.30+ ($900 —> $2300 potential)
Feb 26 - SPX 5070p Entry 0.20 - High after $2. ($200 —> $2000 potential)
Feb 23 - NVDA 800p Entry 2.50 - High after $25.11 ($3000 → $25110 potential)
**Dipped to 2.57 (had to chase entry 3)
Feb 23 - NVDA 820c Entry 2.25 (swing from Thursday) - High after $25.00 ($2250 → $25000 potential)
Feb 22 - SPX 4090c Entry $2.50 - High after $9.20 ($2500 → $9200 potential)
Feb 16 - SMCI 1000p Entry $11 - High after $195 ($1100 → $19500 potential)
Feb 15 - TSLA 195c. Entry $1.20 - High after 5.95 ($1200 → $5950 potential)
Feb 14 - NVDA 720p. Entry $4.5 - High after $12 ($4500 → $12000 potential)
Feb 13 - SPX 4955p. Entry $5 - High after $34 ($5000 → $34000 potential)
Feb 12 - ARM 180c. Entry $1.20 - High after $14.10 ($1200 → $14000 potential)
Feb08 - ARM 100c. Entry $5 - High after $27.50. ($5000 → $27500 potential)
Feb07 - TSLA 185c. Entry $2.53 - Hight after $5.60 ($2530 —> $5600 potential)
Feb05 - SPX 4940c. Entry $3 - High after $16.60 ($3000 → $16,600 potential)
Feb02 - AMD 180c. Entry 0.15 - High after $1 ($1500 —> $10000 potential)
Jan 29 - SPX 4910c. Entry $1 - High after $20 ($1000 —> $20000 potential)
Jan 26 - NFLX 570c. Entry $0.50 - High after $9.85 ($500 → $9850 potential)
Jan 25 - TSLA 185p. Entry $1.5 - High after $6.3 ($1500 → $6300 potential)
Jan 24 - SPX 4890p Entry $1.50 - High after $22 ($1500 → $22000 potential)
Jan 24 - SPX 4880p Entry $0.50 - High after $12 ($500 → $6000 potential)
Jan 17 - SPX 4740c Entry $0.20 - High after $2.80 ($200→ $2800 potential)
Jan 17 - SPX 4740c Entry $1.20 - High after $12 ($1200→ $12000 potential)
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
For live alerts and market commentary click the button below.
Tuesday’s Price Action (Education)
You don't try to make $100,000 ...You don’t start by saying, I’m going to make the biggest most profitable trade and turn $1000 into $100,000 and fix all my bad trades before.
You say, I’m going to plan and execute 1 trade as perfectly as I can today. You do that every single day, and soon you'll have a $100,000 and likely much more!
We got early selling, support established and then a rally yesterday as expected. I keep hawking for the short but until we have clear breaks, when I have a choice at support, I choose bull side.
SPY/SPX
In premarket I shared 2 plans. One was for a short targeting 511.30 and another was anticipating the dip into 511.30 and reversing for a run to 515/516.20.
The 5120 puts dipped to 5 and then ripped quickly to 17. I was able scoop it on a chase and sell at 14. Amazing way to kick of the day with over 100% gains in less than 15 minutes.
Then we had the trade I was hoping for develop. Yesterday I wrote for SPY:
And we got just then. see how SPY broke below 511.30 and then quickly reverse… That is what we wanted, and I got lucky with my math/estimating the dip buy price being around 4. Contracts dipped to 3.30 and then ripped. I sold most per profit taking rules on the way to 14, praying for a dip sub 7 to reload but that never came. SPY then hit the next level up a 516.20 and Edge’s target was spot on with a 23.80 target sell with hod at that push being 25. Who says you can’t catch the whole move? Our plan caught 19.80/21.7 or 91% of the move!
So why was I bullish biased? It was because of the odds. Every 2 red dip has been met with aggressive buying. If that buying continues today we should hit SPY 518-520 today.
With that move into 516.20. I was done for the day. By planning and executing, my account had grown 18%+ and I traded less than 2 hours. Planning and executing 1 to 3 trades in a day and in less than 2 hours is my mission. Sure there are more trades, and more profits to be had, but experience has taught me that looking at screens invites overtrading. I want to reset and look for the next setup on following days.
I did take some late afternoon trades for small losses aiming to get to 20% gains on day, but ended day at 17%. That is ok. Great progress.
NVDA and SMCI
Stayed strong and didn’t give me the dip I wanted to load up long. Same for SMCI.
Both are gapping up this morning.
Summary Review of Market Price Action
After CPI numbers came out, we got the typical reaction and the moves more or less respected the levels I published. Nothing surprising and nice clean trade setups/opportunity.
Educational Lessons
From the price action review you should have learned the following:
Wait for the levels to plan trades
Be patient. Let trades come to you. Make it OK to take only 1 trade a day.
Use /plan in Edge Trade Planner to quickly create trade plans.
Learn how to recognize failed breakdown reversals at key levels.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Wednesday Mar 13
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
With the gap up, I’m watching for if market double tops or continues its rally. Any gap fill, I want to consider. along, any push fail during first hour, I want to consider for a short for the gap fill.
I’m watching the following today: SPY, NVDA, SMCI