SPY Gapping down, do we get BTFD today? AMD down on China shift to domestic tech. My plan for Monday March 25
After last week's huge run, how much will SPY dip before making more highs?
Good morning traders!
It’s Monday! Hope everyone had a restful weekend. Mine was a bit hectic, but I’m looking forward to finding a great trade or two today. Sorry got a late start today.
I’m thankful for this morning’s gap down, hopefully SPY will backtest the breakout level today or tomorrow for a long entry.
Today could develop into a second red day with tomorrow/day after becoming high probably green days if the pattern for last 6 months continues.
I had mixed results on Friday given the limited range, but we did get a nice payout on LULU and NVDA puts.
Introduction (for New Readers)
Welcome to my blog on Two Hour Trading, your daily source for market insights and trading opportunities. In this blog, I will provide you with a comprehensive analysis of the market, educational lessons, and trade ideas to help you stay ahead in your trading journey and best of all doing it less than two hours a day.
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Subscribers to this blog will receive daily updates on market analysis, educational content, and up to three trade ideas each morning, all based on real-life examples and my personal approach to trading.
NOTE: screenshots from chat are from Edge Trade Planner. A platform available to THT PRO members. Join Us for live commentary and planning. Note my goal is to actively trade less than 2 hours a day finding 1 to 4 great trades a day.
What is Two Hour Trading?
It’s my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to setup. Key benefits:
High Quality trades with great reward vs risk
Avoid Overtrading and losses from it
Trading to Win vs Trading to Not Lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Alert Leaderboard
(I’ve decided to include a leaderboard so you can see what potential the 2 Hour Trading System has)
The following is based on entry alerts.
Mar 22 - LULU 390p Entry $1.25 - High after $5.7 ($1125 → $5700 potential)
Mar 21 - SMCI 1000c Entry $4.80 - High after $22.60 ($480 → $2260 potential)
Mar 21 - SMCI 1000c Entry $4.80 - High after $22.60 ($480 → $2260 potential)
Mar 20 - SPX 4200c Entry $7.50 - High after $27.12 ($750 → $2710 potential)
Mar 19 - SPX 4170c Entry $1.10 - High after $11.30 ($1100 → $11300 potential)
Mar 18 - GOOGL 147p Entry $0.65 - High after $1.71 ($650 → $1700 potential)
*runner reached $2Mar 18 - SMCI 900p Entry $10 - High after $30 ($1000 → $3000 potenital)
*runner reached $60!Mar 14 - SPX 5150c Entry $3 - High after $10.50 ($3000 → $10500 potential)
Mar 12 - SPX 5150c Entry $4 - High after $27.50 ($4000 → $27500 potential)
Mar 11 - SPX 5120c Entry $3 - High after 7.50 ($3000 → $7500 potential)
Mar 8 - SMCI 1150p Entry $5 - High after $56.20 ($500 → $5620 potential)
Mar 8 - AMD 220c Entry $0.50 - High after $7.65 ($500 → $7650 potential)
Mar 7 - SPX 5175c Entry $0.50 - High after $2.40 ($500→ $2400 potential)
Mar 6 - SPX 5120c Entry $3.50 - High after $12+ ($3500→ $12000 potential)
Mar 5 - SPX 5070c Entry $0.50 - High after $10.75 ($500 → $10750 potential)
** alerted 0.30 entry wanted. dipped to 0.40. entered at 0.50Mar 5 - SPX 5070p Entry $1 - High after $13.50 ($1000 → $13500 potential)
Mar 4 - SMCI 1200c Entry $33 - High after $61 ($3300 —> $6100 potential)
Mar 1 - SPX 5120c Entry $2 - High after $20 ($2000 —> $20000 potential)
Feb 29 - SPX 5095c Entry 0.50 - High after $10 ($500 —> $10000 potential)
Feb 29 - SPX 5100c Entry 0.30 - High after $5+ ($300 —> $5000 potential)
Feb 27 - TSLA 195p Entry 0.90 - High after $2.30+ ($900 —> $2300 potential)
Feb 26 - SPX 5070p Entry 0.20 - High after $2. ($200 —> $2000 potential)
Feb 23 - NVDA 800p Entry 2.50 - High after $25.11 ($3000 → $25110 potential)
**Dipped to 2.57 (had to chase entry 3)
Feb 23 - NVDA 820c Entry 2.25 (swing from Thursday) - High after $25.00 ($2250 → $25000 potential)
Feb 22 - SPX 4090c Entry $2.50 - High after $9.20 ($2500 → $9200 potential)
Feb 16 - SMCI 1000p Entry $11 - High after $195 ($1100 → $19500 potential)
Feb 15 - TSLA 195c. Entry $1.20 - High after 5.95 ($1200 → $5950 potential)
Feb 14 - NVDA 720p. Entry $4.5 - High after $12 ($4500 → $12000 potential)
Feb 13 - SPX 4955p. Entry $5 - High after $34 ($5000 → $34000 potential)
Feb 12 - ARM 180c. Entry $1.20 - High after $14.10 ($1200 → $14000 potential)
Feb08 - ARM 100c. Entry $5 - High after $27.50. ($5000 → $27500 potential)
Feb07 - TSLA 185c. Entry $2.53 - Hight after $5.60 ($2530 —> $5600 potential)
Feb05 - SPX 4940c. Entry $3 - High after $16.60 ($3000 → $16,600 potential)
Feb02 - AMD 180c. Entry 0.15 - High after $1 ($1500 —> $10000 potential)
Jan 29 - SPX 4910c. Entry $1 - High after $20 ($1000 —> $20000 potential)
Jan 26 - NFLX 570c. Entry $0.50 - High after $9.85 ($500 → $9850 potential)
Jan 25 - TSLA 185p. Entry $1.5 - High after $6.3 ($1500 → $6300 potential)
Jan 24 - SPX 4890p Entry $1.50 - High after $22 ($1500 → $22000 potential)
Jan 24 - SPX 4880p Entry $0.50 - High after $12 ($500 → $6000 potential)
Jan 17 - SPX 4740c Entry $0.20 - High after $2.80 ($200→ $2800 potential)
Jan 17 - SPX 4740c Entry $1.20 - High after $12 ($1200→ $12000 potential)
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
For live alerts and market commentary click the button below.
Friday’s Price Action (Education)
You don't try to make $100,000 ...You don’t start by saying, I’m going to make the biggest most profitable trade and turn $1000 into $100,000 and fix all my bad trades before.
You say, I’m going to plan and execute 1 trade as perfectly as I can today. You do that every single day, and soon you'll have a $100,000 and likely much more!
Friday, I focused mostly on LULU and then got a nice little short in NVDA. A handful of other trades I got small gain or stopped on.
SPY/SPX
As you can tell from the action Friday, it was mostly chop and there wasn’t a tradeable trade until the 12:30 failed breakdown reversal. Because the timing windows I trade at, I essentially skipped trades in SPY/SPX on Friday though I did suggest the following after lunch credit sell trade which did nicely goto 0 headache free.
LULU
LULU started selling faster than I could alert but I took 410p on the 417 level rejection and 412 premarket support break, and then added 400p and 390p along the way day.
Notice the rejection candle on open at the 417 level and then vwap rejection quickly there after during first 15min. That is the entry signal. We then could 2 levels down and target 385.
Because of this I was able to alert that my target of the 400p was $15-20 from $4. I was off my $2 on the target but it got to $13 for a 4R trade using 50% risk. ($8+ gain risking $2)
Here is the logic for where to have gone short.
failed breakout reversal on 417 rejection and vwap rejection
405 level break after first 15min
400 double top at 10am take 390p for $1.25 target $5 (385 level) target met.
NVDA
Broke out to new highs but other chip names did not so this had me suspicious. I chose to wait for a failed breakout move
After the all day grind the triple top and failed breakout gave a nice clean short setup targeting vwap. Which we got. I missed the flip long on vwap which actually provided a 10 bagger trade opportunity on 940c from 0.40—>$4.
The entry signal for the short is how you see a trip top at 946, then we see new highs after 1pm barely and then a break below previous lows at 943.
Summary Review of Market Price Action
Given the recent rally, Friday turned into mostly a consolidation to some profit taking day for SPY.
NVDA broke out on Friday with a clean grind, but other SEMI names did not participate in the rally which made it suspicious to me.
Most news driven names were met with some profit taking.
Overall given the recent rally this is to be expected. Market needs to now back test / establish support again for next leg.
Educational Lessons
From the price action review you should have learned the following:
Wait for the levels to plan trades
Use triple tops to define an intermediate level if a key level isn’t reached.
Be patient. Let trades come to your entry prices (i had to wait over an hour to get filled)
Use /plan in Edge Trade Planner to quickly create trade plans.
Learn how to recognize failed breakout reversals at key levels.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Monday Mar 25
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Given the gap down in SPY and AMD I will be focused on both of these names. BA is gapping up on CEO step down at end of year. This may provide a trade as well.
Let’s go over the levels and ideas for today. Overall I’d like to see more red day to let tomorrow or day after give a nice green day/rally and stick to 2-3 red day and then run script algos seem to be following.