SPY dumps 4.5%! Do we limit down? Trade Ideas for Thur Apr 3
Have you ever had a Spectre Special? A trade that does 500%+ in under an hour?
Let’s first get the after hours action out of the way. With the the announcement after hours incoming. I did not have any position ahead of the news, because we almost ALWAYS find great trades. It’s insance how often we do and members are getting better and learning my mindset and predicting/trading by “What would spectre do?” Super proud of all of you!
On the high of day break, I “assumed” upside reaction to Trump speech. Then when I raid about the tariffs and saw reaction., got stopped when we broke vwap and flipped long. Then I saw the 'safe haven’ AAPL 0.00%↑ dumping hard so when we were testing day lows, I made the assumption we will break since /ES and SPY were lagging AAPL.
I’m sharing this so you can see how I reacted to the price action presented. How I dealt with being wrong, how we used the news and monitoring stocks to help guide what I should do.
I let my levels and price action dictate what I need to do and have a budge for losses. Think about that…. I don’t look at losses as me sucking at trading. Its the cost of doing business. Not everything will work, but I need to consistently apply my process and execute to the best of my ability.
Overall the impact of the tariffs imho imply a large uncertainty to the market and potential reciprocal tariff news risk today. Actually thinking we might get a bounce if countries do not impose more tariffs and start to discuss lowering their tariffs. If not, and a cycle of raises like we are playing a game of Texas Hold ‘Em begins we could see a series a multiple major red days.
Highlights from Wed
Lucky long SPX 5650c for $2.5 hitting $40+ (but I was out at 15)
Relong SPX 5650c again for $10 hitting $48!! (out at $40)
Missed short after SPY reject 567
Scooped long 5670c on 10:30am level for 1.50 and fell alseep hit $9 but I was out 50% at 6 to make it risk free. closed 2.2
Overall based on overnight action, I consider the rally from 550 to 570 a short squeeze and the break of 550 as continuation of the downside move since Trump took office and the new Tariff protocols going into effect.
Here are the level I’m looking at for downside.
Limit down potential?
If the market decides to dump heavily today we would need to hit somewhere between 525 and 528 to trigger the 7% limit down. Will it happen? It’s anyone’s guess but with all this uncertainty will bidders show is the question. I’ve been trained to go long on days like this because we have been in a non-stop BTFD regime. But today I will not do that. I rather be late on longs then step in front potential dumps.
What is Two Hour Trading?
Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
Trade Recap for Wed Apr 02
GOLD BOLD ITALIC = price action signal
WHITE REGULAR = action to take/taken
GREEN REGULAR = trades I should have taken
SPY / SPX
Solid trading day. I left for a late lunch and wasn’t interesting in trading any more after catching a 5 bagger, a 200% on TSLA and another 200% on SPX long. Solid trading dau and took the afternoon off. I happened to be looking at my phone when we double boult on the r/g line and 10:30 level and scooped 5670c as a yolo. Got home and went to sleep. Waking up early to write the blog and review the market plus trading takes a lot of mental energy. May need to reconsider the late evening cardio sessions and sleep earlier.
GET EXCITED. I’ll be publishing a book called Trading To Win: Stop trading to NOT lose. Title is still in the works. I plan to include exercises to help you improve your mindset and your trading. Leave a comment or send me a message if interested in the book.
If you are busy and want to see my commentary and ideas in real time consider joining THT-PRO.
Education - How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows/failed breakdown reversal
Join at vwap mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Education - Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Wed Apr 02
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
“Liberation Day” aka Tariff Day is here. SPX contracts are juiced at 54%. The big question is do get BTFD / gap down reversal , fill some of the gap, and/or non stop selling .. As well as it it worth trading with contracts this juiced….
Here are my plans for banking on this action…