SPY continues to dip. Will it see 665-667 today? Trade Ideas for Thu Sep 25
Thank you MR ADX, MR Powell, and Edge Option Scanner for 500 and 700% payers!
Trade Idea #5 Spot ON!!!
Yesterday I wrote
Failed Breakout Reversal Short at 664.50
Setup: Short if price fails to hold above Pivot.
Entry: Sell on bearish close below 664 after rejecting 664.60-665
Stop Loss: 665 (risk 1 point below support).
Targets: 661.52 S1 (first, 2.22 points profit), 659
Rationale: If day 2, premarket push could be back test of Powell breakdown level.
SPX 6620p $1→8 = 700%
SPX 6640p $4→20 = 500%
VIDEO LESSON of SPY/SPX Trade Ideas
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Plan for Thu Sep 25
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Market Context
SPY closed yesterday at 661.04 after a volatile session that saw intraday swings between 659.26 and 663.53, with the ETF forming a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart amid fading momentum from prior highs. Overnight, premarket action drove prices down sharply to a close of 658.90, breaking below the key support at 659.46 and testing multi-day lows around 658.00, where volume spiked over 2x average on the 1-minute bars, suggesting capitulation selling. This positions SPY in oversold territory with a bearish bias short-term, but watch for reversal signals near the pivot at 662.05 if buyers defend the breakdown; expect choppy open with risk of further downside to 657.07 if momentum persists.
Key Events Today
8:30am: Durable Goods
Key Levels and Their Significance
672.01: Projected R3
667.03: Project R2
664.44: Resistance for scalpers; frequent bounces in 09-24 session with volume spikes >2x average near this level, 60% probability of interaction today, key at open for breakout tests.
662.05 (High Priority): Pivot point for day traders; premarket close at 658.90 sits below, but multi-day data shows 3 reversals here with elevated volume, 70% probability of failed breakdown if approached, active throughout session.
659.46 (High Priority): Support for scalpers; broken in premarket with capitulation volume >3x average at 658.24 low, but quick 1-minute reversal signals, 75% probability of bounce for failed breakdown setup, immediate relevance at open.
658.00: Additional support from price action; volume spike 2.5x average on 09-25 premarket low with rejection candle, 65% probability for intraday scalpers, high activity in first hour if downside continues.
657.07: Support for swing traders; aligns with Fibonacci retracement from recent highs and prior session low hold, 55% probability based on 2 bounces in data, relevant mid-session if bearish bias persists.
652.09: Deep support for longer swings; multi-day low extension with sparse volume but structural significance, 30% probability of touch today, watch for end-of-day if no reversal.
Tips for Recognizing When a Trade Idea Is in Play
Watch for volume >1.5x 5-minute average on approach to level for confirmation.
Confirm reversal with bullish hammer or engulfing candle closing above support.
Enter only after price holds level for 2 consecutive 1-minute bars.
Avoid if premarket gap exceeds 1% without fill, signaling stronger trend.
Monitor for failed breakout if price wicks above resistance but closes below.
Exit partial position at first target if momentum fades (RSI <30 oversold).
Disclaimer: Not financial advice; consult a professional.