Real news delivers 20x+ returns. Will SPY break 480 today? Trade Ideas for Apr 9
Have you ever had a Spectre Special? A trade that does 500%+ in under an hour?
Yesterday I talked about how I thought we had a 20% chance of breaking 505/500 levels whic lead to to drop perfectly into the 488-494 area. What drove this? First I believe that people who bought the dip at 480, may not have taken profit over 520, then we had people load up at 500-505 on Friday.
My original thesis was for a rapid gap fill and then close around 524-527, and then look to position short again on any gap up this morning.
Instead we got news yesterday that China was increasing their tariffs. That killed new bidders and when 500, broke I believe a bunch of stops got hit triggering the fast flush.
I alerted SPX 5000p at 3 targeting 15-20. And it hit 21 before retracing back on 6 around 2pm during the consolidation around 505. These then ran to 95!
Unfortunately I was feeling like crap and went to sleep and missed the play. I got my 200% gainer for the day while being sick. good enough.
However I did take 4800p for 10 and woke up at 3:30 to find it at 52. I was like thank you and took profits on 50%.
I’m even more proud of the fact that THT PRO members got positioned for the drop after 2pm without me and for those that didn’t I encouraged some learning after hours to learn how to plan for it using my system. Great job guys!
REMINDER: THT PRO for new members is going to $500/mo on April 10. I know I’m one of the more “expensive” memberships but imho, it is incredibly cheap considering the mindset and behavior changes members experience plus the sheer number of high quality trades that can let you pay for a year’s service in 1 day. If you have friends that want to join or are considering joining, be sure to join before rates go up.
In the ideas section I’ll cover what I think is driving the market and how and when we may bounce.
What is Two Hour Trading?
Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
Trade Recap for Tue Apr 08
GOLD BOLD ITALIC = price action signal
WHITE REGULAR = action to take/taken
GREEN REGULAR = trades I should have taken
SPY / SPX
Easy if you just held, but difficult with OTM contracts with high IV. We did the right with take profits at 300-500% gains. I was asleep but some members reload where they were suppose to. Super proud of you guys. Keep improving your execution!
GET EXCITED. I’ll be publishing a book called Trading To Win: Stop trading to NOT lose. Title is still in the works. I plan to include exercises to help you improve your mindset and your trading. Leave a comment or send me a message if interested in the book.
If you are busy and want to see my commentary and ideas in real time consider joining THT-PRO.
Education - How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows/failed breakdown reversal
Join at vwap mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Education - Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Wed Apr 09
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
What some people are struggling to accept is that market and trade fundamentals have changed and there is significantly increased uncertainty. In the mean time they have been trained to buy every dip. There is a chance big money will accumulat 480-488 area and we bounce back over 520 in coming dance. If this develops its more of technical squeeze setup than a fundamental shift of buyers/sellers. Until major progress is made imho, there is no reason for big money to in front of this downward freight train for long term. There is for the potential squeeze setup off a 480s double bottom. Sellers could be exhausted, and we had a news headline with China raising tariffs again. This could have trapped shorts. So far sub 488 has been bought with lots of consolidation just under.
We will need to see what market wants to do. To that end, I will likely wait for after 10:30 to 11:00 am before opening any trades and may even wait for 2pm.
Here are the stocks and levels I’m watching